การประชุมผลประกอบการไตรมาส 2 ปี 2026 ของ Nu Holdings (NU): กำไรสุทธิแตะ 1.1 พันล้านดอลลาร์
Nu Holdings รายงานผลประกอบการไตรมาส 2 ปี 2026 ด้วยกำไรสุทธิ 1.1 พันล้านดอลลาร์ เพิ่มขึ้น 49% เมื่อเทียบรายปี และอัตราผลตอบแทนต่อส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้น (ROE) ทรงตัวที่ 33% รายได้รวมเติบโตแตะ 5.9 พันล้านดอลลาร์ หนุนโดยพอร์ตสินเชื่อที่ขยายตัว 37% สู่ระดับ 3.94 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ และส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ยสุทธิที่ปรับตามความเสี่ยง (Risk-adjusted NIM) เพิ่มขึ้นสู่ระดับสูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ที่ 12.4%
ฐานลูกค้าทั่วโลกรวมอยู่ที่ 139 ล้านราย ขณะที่อัตราส่วนค่าใช้จ่ายต่อรายได้อยู่ที่ 19.5% ทั้งนี้ ผู้บริหารมองว่าแนวโน้มความสามารถในการทำกำไรยังมีเสถียรภาพ พร้อมเดินหน้าขยายตลาดในภูมิภาคและพัฒนาแพลตฟอร์ม AI อย่างต่อเนื่อง
Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU) รายงานผลประกอบการไตรมาสแรกที่มีกำไรสุทธิมากกว่า 1 พันล้านดอลลาร์ โดยได้รับการสนับสนุนจากการเติบโตของสินเชื่อ ส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่ปรับตามความเสี่ยงแล้วซึ่งกว้างขึ้น และการเกิดการประหยัดจากขนาดในการดำเนินงานอย่างต่อเนื่อง นอกจากนี้ ผู้บริหารยังได้เน้นย้ำถึงการมีส่วนร่วมของลูกค้าที่ลึกซึ้งยิ่งขึ้น ใบอนุญาตประกอบธุรกิจธนาคารแห่งใหม่ในเม็กซิโก และการขยายการใช้งานแพลตฟอร์ม AI nuFormer ของบริษัท
ประเด็นสำคัญ
- กำไรสุทธิแตะระดับสูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ที่ 1.1 พันล้านดอลลาร์ เพิ่มขึ้น 49% เมื่อเทียบรายปี และเพิ่มขึ้น 17% เมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาส ขณะที่อัตราส่วนผลตอบแทนต่อส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้น (ROE) ยังคงอยู่ที่ 33%
- รายได้รวมเพิ่มขึ้น 39% เมื่อเทียบรายปี สู่ระดับเกือบ 5.9 พันล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่กำไรขั้นต้นเพิ่มขึ้น 43% สู่ระดับ 2.4 พันล้านดอลลาร์
- พอร์ตสินเชื่อขยายตัว 37% เมื่อเทียบรายปี และ 5% เมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาส สู่ระดับ 3.94 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ โดยบัตรเครดิตแตะระดับ 2.60 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ และการให้สินเชื่อไม่มีหลักประกันมีจำนวนรวม 1.03 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์
- ส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ยสุทธิที่ปรับตามความเสี่ยงแล้วขยายตัวสู่ระดับสูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ที่ 12.4% จาก 9.5% ในไตรมาส 1 โดยมีปัจจัยหนุนหลักจากรายได้สินเชื่อ ต้นทุนความเสี่ยงด้านสินเชื่อที่ลดลง และการปรับงบการเงินให้มีประสิทธิภาพสูงสุด
- Nu ให้บริการลูกค้า 139 ล้านราย อัตราการใช้งานของลูกค้าเพิ่มขึ้นเมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาสสู่ระดับ 83.5% โดย ARPAC แตะระดับ 17 ดอลลาร์ และอัตราการใช้งานของลูกค้าในบราซิลเกิน 86% เป็นครั้งแรก
- ผู้บริหารยังคงคาดว่าอัตราส่วนค่าใช้จ่ายต่อรายได้เฉลี่ยทั้งปีจะอยู่ที่ประมาณ 20% และมองว่าส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ยสุทธิที่ปรับตามความเสี่ยงแล้วในระดับปัจจุบันจะมีความยั่งยืนในอนาคตอันใกล้ พร้อมทั้งเน้นย้ำว่าระดับ 12.4% ไม่ใช่ระดับต่ำสุด
ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ
| ตัวชี้วัด | Q2 2026 | การเปลี่ยนแปลง / บริบท |
|---|---|---|
| กำไรสุทธิ | 1.1 พันล้านดอลลาร์ | +49% YoY; +17% QoQ |
| อัตราส่วนผลตอบแทนต่อส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้น | 33% | รักษาระดับสูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ไว้ได้ |
| รายได้รวม | เกือบ 5.9 พันล้านดอลลาร์ | +39% YoY |
| รายได้สุทธิ | 4.1 พันล้านดอลลาร์ | +8% QoQ; ไตรมาสแรกที่สูงกว่า 4 พันล้านดอลลาร์ |
| กำไรขั้นต้น | 2.4 พันล้านดอลลาร์ | +43% YoY; +25% QoQ |
| ค่าใช้จ่ายในการดำเนินงาน | 806 ล้านดอลลาร์ | +20% QoQ |
| อัตราส่วนค่าใช้จ่ายต่อรายได้ | 19.5% | ระดับ 17.6% ในไตรมาส 1 รวมผลประโยชน์ชั่วคราวจากการปรับจังหวะเวลา |
| รายได้ดอกเบี้ยสุทธิ | 3.7 พันล้านดอลลาร์ | +9% YoY |
| ส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ยสุทธิ | 22.9% | ขยายตัว 180 basis points |
| Risk-adjusted NIM | 12.4% | เพิ่มขึ้นจาก 9.5% ในไตรมาส 1 |
| พอร์ตสินเชื่อ | 3.94 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ | +37% YoY; +5% QoQ |
| เงินรับฝาก | 4.53 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ | +18% YoY; +6% QoQ |
| ต้นทุนความเสี่ยงด้านสินเชื่อ | 1.7 พันล้านดอลลาร์ | ลดลงเมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาส |
| อัตราส่วนหนี้ค้างชำระ 15–90 วัน | 4.8% | ปรับตัวดีขึ้น 16 basis points QoQ |
| อัตราส่วนหนี้ค้างชำระเกิน 90 วัน | 6.9% | เพิ่มขึ้น 35 basis points QoQ |
| ฐานลูกค้า | 139 ล้านราย | รวมเกือบ 118 ล้านรายในบราซิล และมากกว่า 5 ล้านรายในโคลอมเบีย |
| อัตราการใช้งานของลูกค้า | 83.5% | เพิ่มขึ้นเมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาส |
| ARPAC ต่อเดือน | 17 ดอลลาร์ | เพิ่มขึ้นจาก 13 ดอลลาร์ในช่วงเวลาที่ผู้บริหารอ้างถึง |
เว้นแต่ผู้บริหารจะระบุไว้เป็นอย่างอื่น อัตราการเติบโตจะนำเสนอในรูปแบบเมื่อเทียบรายปีและไม่รวมผลกระทบจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน
ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการปฏิบัติงาน
การเติบโตของสินเชื่อและคุณภาพสินทรัพย์
การเติบโตของสินเชื่อยังคงกระจายตัวในวงกว้าง ยอดคงค้างบัตรเครดิตเพิ่มขึ้น 35% เมื่อเทียบรายปี สู่ระดับ 2.60 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ สินเชื่อไม่มีหลักประกันเพิ่มขึ้น 45% สู่ระดับ 1.03 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ และสินเชื่อมีหลักประกันเพิ่มขึ้น 30% สู่ระดับ 3.1 พันล้านดอลลาร์
ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าการเติบโตเมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาสเริ่มกลับสู่ระดับปกติหลังจากผ่านช่วงขยายตัวที่แข็งแกร่งเป็นพิเศษ ขณะที่มาตรฐานการอนุมัติสินเชื่อยังคงไม่เปลี่ยนแปลง บริษัทระบุว่าการปรับตัวดีขึ้นของหนี้ค้างชำระระยะเริ่มต้นเป็นผลมาจากปัจจัยตามฤดูกาลปกติ ซึ่งถูกชดเชยบางส่วนจากการตั้งใจขยายไปยังกลุ่มลูกค้าที่มีผลขาดทุนคาดการณ์สูงกว่า แต่มีผลตอบแทนปรับตามความเสี่ยงที่คาดการณ์ไว้แข็งแกร่งกว่า
อัตราส่วนหนี้ค้างชำระเกิน 90 วันเพิ่มขึ้นสู่ระดับ 6.9% ซึ่งสะท้อนถึงการไหลลงของหนี้ค้างชำระระยะเริ่มต้นจากไตรมาส 1 ตามฤดูกาลและการเปลี่ยนแปลงของส่วนผสมในพอร์ตสินเชื่อ ผู้บริหารระบุว่ายังไม่พบหลักฐานการด้อยค่าในวงกว้างของสินเชื่อผู้บริโภค
เงินสำรองขาดทุนทางเครดิตเพิ่มขึ้นจาก 6.1 พันล้านดอลลาร์ เป็น 6.6 พันล้านดอลลาร์ โดยการเติบโตของพอร์ตสินเชื่อมีส่วนทำให้เพิ่มขึ้น 342 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่การตั้งใจขยายความเสี่ยงเพิ่มขึ้น 170 ล้านดอลลาร์ ทั้งนี้ อัตราส่วนเงินสำรองต่อหนี้เสียเกิน 90 วัน (Coverage ratio) อยู่ที่ 244%
เงินรับฝากและการขยายตัวของส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ย
เงินรับฝากแตะระดับ 4.53 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ ซึ่งรวมถึง 3.64 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ในบราซิล 5.7 พันล้านดอลลาร์ในเม็กซิโก และ 3.3 พันล้านดอลลาร์ในโคลอมเบีย ทั้งนี้ เงินรับฝากในเม็กซิโกลดลงเล็กน้อยเนื่องจาก Nu ยังคงปรับต้นทุนเงินทุนให้มีประสิทธิภาพสูงสุด ขณะที่อัตราส่วนสินเชื่อต่อเงินรับฝากของเม็กซิโกยังคงอยู่ที่ 35%
ต้นทุนเงินรับฝากโดยรวมอยู่ที่ 88% ของอัตราดอกเบี้ยระหว่างธนาคาร ซึ่งไม่เปลี่ยนแปลงเมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาส และต่ำกว่าระดับของปีก่อนหน้าอยู่ 3 percentage point
รายได้สินเชื่อมีส่วนสนับสนุน 178 basis points ให้กับการเพิ่มขึ้นเมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาสของ risk-adjusted NIM ขณะที่ต้นทุนความเสี่ยงด้านสินเชื่อที่ลดลงช่วยเพิ่ม 115 basis points ทั้งนี้ ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าโครงการปรับโครงสร้างหนี้ Desenrola มีสัดส่วนประมาณ 5% ของต้นทุนความเสี่ยงด้านสินเชื่อ และเป็นส่วนน้อยของการปรับตัวดีขึ้นของส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ย
บราซิล: การสร้างรายได้และการแบ่งเซกเมนต์ลูกค้าที่ลึกซึ้งยิ่งขึ้น
Nu ระบุว่าลูกค้ากลุ่มตลาดแมสในบราซิลประมาณ 60% ใช้ Nu เป็นบัญชีหลัก ผู้บริหารมองว่าความสัมพันธ์ในฐานะบัญชีหลักดังกล่าวเป็นความได้เปรียบทั้งด้านรายได้และสินเชื่อ เนื่องจากช่วยสร้างข้อมูลพฤติกรรมที่สมบูรณ์ยิ่งขึ้น และทำให้ Nu อยู่ในลำดับความสำคัญสูงสุดในการชำระเงินของลูกค้า
Ultravioleta มีลูกค้าเกือบ 1 ล้านราย ยอดใช้จ่ายผ่านบัตรและสินทรัพย์ภายใต้การดูแลของเซกเมนต์นี้เพิ่มขึ้น 41% และ 37% เมื่อเทียบรายปี ตามลำดับ
ในเดือนกรกฎาคม Nu ได้เปิดตัว Chroma ซึ่งเป็นระดับสมาชิกแบบสมัครรับบริการสำหรับเซกเมนต์ Supercore ข้อเสนอนี้รวมถึงผลิตภัณฑ์สินเชื่อที่ยกระดับขึ้น ตลอดจนสิทธิประโยชน์ด้านการธนาคารและไลฟ์สไตล์ เพื่อกระตุ้นให้ลูกค้ารวบรวมกิจกรรมทางการเงินมาไว้กับ Nubank มากยิ่งขึ้น
นอกจากนี้ Nu ยังให้บริการธุรกิจขนาดเล็ก 6.8 ล้านราย ส่งผลให้เป็นสถาบันการเงินที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในบราซิลเมื่อพิจารณาจากจำนวนลูกค้าธุรกิจ ตามข้อมูลของผู้บริหาร บริษัทประเมินว่าปัจจุบันสามารถเข้าถึงตลาดดังกล่าวได้ประมาณหนึ่งในสาม
เม็กซิโกและโคลอมเบีย
หน่วยงานกำกับดูแลของเม็กซิโกได้อนุมัติใบอนุญาตประกอบธุรกิจธนาคารให้แก่ Nu ซึ่งทำให้บริษัทเข้าถึงศักยภาพต่างๆ ได้ รวมถึงบริการโอนเงินเงินเดือนเข้าบัญชีโดยตรง การคุ้มครองเงินฝากที่สูงขึ้น และฐานเงินทุนที่กว้างขึ้นสำหรับผลิตภัณฑ์สินเชื่อ
เม็กซิโกมีจำนวนลูกค้าแตะ 16 ล้านราย ณ สิ้นเดือนกรกฎาคม ผู้บริหารระบุว่าลูกค้า 35% เปิดบัญชีธนาคารแรกกับ Nu และ 52% ได้รับบัตรเครดิตใบแรกผ่านบริษัท
อัตราการเข้าถึงลูกค้าของ Nu ในเม็กซิโกแตะระดับ 16.5% ของประชากรวัยผู้ใหญ่ ผู้บริหารได้เปรียบเทียบตัวเลขนี้กับการเข้าถึงตลาดในบราซิลเมื่อปี 2020 และตั้งข้อสังเกตว่า ARPAC ของเม็กซิโกในระยะเดียวกันอยู่ที่ 12.3 ดอลลาร์ เทียบกับ 5.6 ดอลลาร์ในบราซิล
ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าเม็กซิโกบรรลุจุดคุ้มทุนในเวลาหกปี เมื่อเทียบกับบราซิลที่ใช้เวลาแปดปี พร้อมอธิบายว่าเม็กซิโกเป็นโอกาสในการเติบโตระยะยาวที่สำคัญ ขณะที่โคลอมเบียก็ดำเนินงานได้ดีเกินความคาดหมายของบริษัทเช่นกัน
AI และผลิตภาพในการดำเนินงาน
Nu ยังคงขยายการใช้งาน nuFormer แพลตฟอร์ม AI ศูนย์กลางสำหรับการอนุมัติสินเชื่อ การสนับสนุนลูกค้า การแนะนำผลิตภัณฑ์ และการตลาด แพลตฟอร์มนี้ได้รับการปรับใช้ในพอร์ตบัตรเครดิตและสินเชื่อไม่มีหลักประกันในบราซิลแล้ว รวมถึงนำไปใช้ในเม็กซิโกด้วยเช่นกัน นอกจากนี้ยังอยู่ระหว่างการทดสอบสำหรับบัตรเครดิต SME และลูกค้าในโคลอมเบีย
ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าปัจจุบันเอเจนต์ AI ดูแลการสนทนาสนับสนุนลูกค้ามากกว่า 60% ในบราซิล โดยได้รับคะแนนประเมินจากลูกค้าในระดับที่เท่ากับหรือสูงกว่าเจ้าหน้าที่มนุษย์ นอกจากนี้ แคมเปญการตลาดมากกว่า 100 แคมเปญยังได้ใช้การกำหนดกลุ่มเป้าหมายตาม nuFormer
จำนวนพนักงานอยู่ที่ประมาณ 10,400 คน ผู้บริหารไม่คาดว่าจะมีการเพิ่มขึ้นหรือลดลงอย่างมีนัยสำคัญในระยะใกล้ แต่มองว่า AI สามารถทำให้กำลังคนมีผลิตภาพสูงขึ้นสองถึงห้าเท่าในช่วงไม่กี่ปีข้างหน้า
แนวทางดำเนินงานจากผู้บริหาร
- Nu ยังคงคาดว่าอัตราส่วนค่าใช้จ่ายต่อรายได้ตลอดทั้งปี 2026 จะเฉลี่ยอยู่ที่ประมาณ 20%
- ผู้บริหารคาดว่า risk-adjusted NIM จะยังคงอยู่ในระดับใกล้เคียงกับ 12.4% ของไตรมาส 2 ในอนาคตอันใกล้ แต่ระบุอย่างชัดเจนว่าระดับดังกล่าวไม่ควรได้รับการพิจารณาว่าเป็นระดับต่ำสุด
- บริษัทวางแผนที่จะรักษาเงินลงทุนที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการเข้าสู่ตลาดสหรัฐในอนาคตให้อยู่ภายใน 100 basis points ของอัตราส่วนค่าใช้จ่ายต่อรายได้
- ผู้บริหารคาดว่าการสร้างข้อมูลสินเชื่อเฉพาะของสหรัฐและการบรรลุความเชื่อมั่นที่เพียงพอในแบบจำลอง จะใช้เวลาประมาณ 12 ถึง 30 เดือนหลังจากเข้าสู่ตลาด
- Nu คาดว่าการให้สินเชื่อสวัสดิการหักเงินเดือนภาคเอกชนในบราซิลจะเร่งตัวขึ้นเมื่อระบบ กระบวนการหลักประกัน และพฤติกรรมของผู้กู้มีความพร้อมเต็มที่ ผู้บริหารเชื่อว่าผลิตภัณฑ์นี้อาจกลายเป็นส่วนสำคัญและมีความยืดหยุ่นมากขึ้นของพอร์ตสินเชื่อในช่วง 18 ถึง 24 เดือนข้างหน้า
ความเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องติดตาม
- อัตราส่วนหนี้ค้างชำระเกิน 90 วันเพิ่มขึ้น 35 basis points เมื่อเทียบรายไตรมาส สู่ระดับ 6.9% แม้ผู้บริหารจะระบุว่าการเพิ่มขึ้นดังกล่าวเป็นผลมาจากปัจจัยตามฤดูกาลและส่วนผสมของพอร์ตสินเชื่อ มากกว่าการด้อยค่าของสินเชื่อในวงกว้าง
- การตั้งใจขยายไปยังกลุ่มลูกค้าที่มีความเสี่ยงสูงขึ้นทำให้หนี้ค้างชำระระยะเริ่มต้นเพิ่มขึ้น และเพิ่มเงินสำรองอีก 170 ล้านดอลลาร์ ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่ากลุ่มลูกค้าเหล่านี้คาดว่าจะสร้างผลตอบแทนปรับตามความเสี่ยงที่สูงขึ้น
- Nu ตั้งสมมติฐานการด้อยค่าเมื่ออนุมัติสินเชื่อและรักษาเงินสำรองความเสี่ยงเพิ่มเติมไว้ แต่ผู้บริหารยอมรับว่ายังคงต้องระมัดระวังต่อภาวะเศรษฐกิจมหภาคอย่างต่อเนื่อง
- เงินรับฝากในเม็กซิโกลดลงเล็กน้อยเป็นไตรมาสที่สองติดต่อกันภายใต้กลยุทธ์การปรับต้นทุนเงินทุนให้มีประสิทธิภาพสูงสุดของบริษัท
- แบบจำลองสินเชื่อของสหรัฐสามารถนำแพลตฟอร์มเทคโนโลยีและความเชี่ยวชาญด้านความเสี่ยงของ Nu มาใช้ซ้ำได้ แต่ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าข้อมูลและการทดสอบเฉพาะประเทศจะต้องใช้เวลาในการพัฒนา
ประเด็นสำคัญจากการถาม-ตอบกับนักวิเคราะห์
ความยั่งยืนของส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่ปรับตามความเสี่ยงแล้ว: ผู้บริหารระบุว่าผลการดำเนินงานในไตรมาส 2 เป็นผลมาจาก การเติบโตของสินเชื่อในช่วงก่อนหน้า ยอดคงค้างที่สร้างรายได้ดอกเบี้ยที่ปรับตัวดีขึ้น แนวโน้มสินเชื่อตามฤดูกาล และผลการดำเนินงานด้านสินเชื่อพื้นฐานที่คุ้มค่าเกินคาด โดย Desenrola มีสัดส่วนประมาณหนึ่งในสามของการปรับตัวดีขึ้นเมื่อเทียบกับความคาดหมายก่อนหน้านี้ของบริษัท
ผลกระทบของ AI ต่อการอนุมัติสินเชื่อ: Nu ระบุว่าแบบจำลองที่ช่วยด้วย AI มีประสิทธิภาพทรงพลังกว่าแบบจำลอง Logistic Regression แบบดั้งเดิม แต่เน้นย้ำว่าการตรวจสอบความถูกต้องของแบบจำลองและการติดตามสินเชื่อยังคงไม่เปลี่ยนแปลง ผู้บริหารเชื่อมโยงแบบจำลองที่แข็งแกร่งกว่าเข้ากับความสามารถในการขยายความเสี่ยงแบบตรงจุด โดยมีผลตอบแทนปรับตามความเสี่ยงที่คาดการณ์ไว้สูงขึ้น
การเติบโตของกำไรระยะยาว: ผู้บริหารระบุว่า ARPAC ที่สูงขึ้นในบราซิล เม็กซิโก และโคลอมเบีย การแบ่งเซกเมนต์ที่ปรับตัวดีขึ้นผ่าน Chroma และ Ultravioleta ตลอดจนการสร้างรายได้จากฐานลูกค้า SME เป็นช่องทางการเติบโตหลัก ทั้งนี้ กลุ่มลูกค้าบราซิลที่เติบโตเต็มที่แล้วสามารถสร้าง ARPAC ได้ในช่วงกลางของระดับ 20 ดอลลาร์อยู่แล้ว
การให้สินเชื่อสวัสดิการหักเงินเดือนภาคเอกชน: Nu กำลังเร่งการปล่อยสินเชื่อใหม่อย่างค่อยเป็นค่อยไป เมื่อมีความมั่นใจมากขึ้นในระบบหลักประกันและคุณภาพของผู้กู้ ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าผู้กู้ในช่วงแรกมีความเสี่ยงสูงเกินคาด แต่ในปัจจุบันเริ่มเห็นลูกค้าที่มีความเสี่ยงต่ำลงใช้ผลิตภัณฑ์นี้เพื่อรีไฟแนนซ์หนี้ที่มีต้นทุนสูงขึ้น
การขยายธุรกิจในสหรัฐ: Nu คาดว่าโครงสร้างพื้นฐานด้าน AI และสินเชื่อของบริษัทสามารถถ่ายโอนข้ามตลาดได้ แต่มีแผนที่จะเริ่มต้นด้วยการทดสอบและการเก็บรวบรวมข้อมูลก่อนที่จะขยายการปล่อยสินเชื่อ พนักงานในสหรัฐอาจเพิ่มขึ้นจากประมาณ 1% เป็น 2% ของจำนวนพนักงานทั้งหมด โดยมีวัตถุประสงค์หลักเพื่อเข้าถึงบุคลากรที่มีความเชี่ยวชาญเฉพาะทาง โดยเฉพาะด้าน AI
บันทึกการประชุมแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม
บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ
คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร
Operator
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Nu Holdings conference call to discuss the results for the Second Quarter of 2026. A slide presentation is accompanying today's webcast which is available in Nu's investors simulations website, www.investors.nu in English and www.investidores.nu in Portuguese. This conference is being recorded, and the replay can also be accessed on the company's IR website. This call is also available in Portuguese. [Operator Instructions] [Foreign Language] [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Guilherme Souto, Investor Relations Officer at New and Holdings. Mr. Souto, you may proceed.
Guilherme Souto
Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining our earnings call today. With me on today's call are David Velez, our Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman; and Rob Livingston, our Chief Financial Officer.
All financial metrics discussed and presented today reflect our mini geo P&L framework, which we introduced in the Q4 2025. These managerial measures are important to how we manage the business but are not financial measures as defined under IFRS and may not be comparable to other companies. A full reconciliation report to the most directly comparable IFRS figures is available in our managerial P&L reconciliation report and in the appendix to this presentation. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates discussed today are presented on a year-over-year FX neutral basis.
Today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to the forward-looking statements disclosure included in the earnings presentation for additional information.
With that, I will now turn the call over to David. Please go ahead, David.
David Velez-Osomo
Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. 13 years ago, we started with a simple hypothesis. A bank built on technology with no branches and no legacy to defend could serve hundreds of millions of people better and at a fraction of the cost. Today, I'm proud to announce that in the past quarter, for the first time, we generated more than $1 billion in net income. This milestone is a result of our customer obsession translated into an earnings generating formula. It is also a testament to the tremendous work of our team here at Nubank 13 years later, that hypothesis continues to play out exactly as we envisioned. Our customer base reached 139 million customers, including almost $118 million in Brazil more than $5 million in Colombia. And in the end of July, Mexico just reached 16 million customers. Engagement continued to deepen alongside that growth.
Our activity rate expanded sequentially to 83.5%, and while Brazil surpassed 86% for the first time. The combination of more customers and deeper engagement continues to drive monetization with RPAC reaching $17. Together, they generated $5.9 billion in gross revenue, while maintaining a highly efficient operating model with an efficiency ratio of 20%. This operating leverage allows us to continue investing in our 3 core markets. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, while laying the foundation for our international expansion. That is why we have always been by optimizing for the long term. It is why we can continue building for the next decade while delivering a quarter like this one.
Let me walk you through both starting with Brazil. Brazil remains our largest growth opportunity and most of it lies within our existing customer base. The mass market alone represents roughly $30 billion in industry gross profit. We already serve most of the segments, and we're the primary account for approximately 60% of those customers. Even so, there is significant room in deepen those relationships and capture more of that profitability. That is possible because of the capabilities we have built over the past 13 years. They allow us to expand financial access while delivering a better customer experience, lower costs and increasingly personalized products.
As we built one of the leading financial services brands in Latin America for the mass market, we find ourselves attracting millions of higher income resilience that, unfortunately, we were not able to serve well at the time. In 2021, we launched Ultravioleta, a high-income focused brand and product or nearly 1 million Ultravioleta customers have significantly higher purchase volumes and assets under custody than the rest of our portfolio with both continuing to grow strongly, up 41% and 37% year-over-year, respectively, in Q2 2026. However, we have realized that there is a meaningful segment between mass market and high income that we could also be serving better. We call this segment Supercore. And in July, we launched Chroma, a subscription-based tier for our Supercore customers. A segment with an even larger profit pool than high income and one where we already have significant penetration.
Chroma gives them a dedicated experience, enhanced credit offerings and a broader set of banking and life style benefits, designed to reward customers for concentrating more of their financial lives from Nubank. That includes new cell, a free ChatGPT subscription, accelerated savings products and other benefits across our own ecosystem partners. Our goal is to develop primary banking relationships, and Chroma is a significant step in this direction for this segment.
Of course, the opportunity also extends beyond consumers. We already serve 6.8 million small businesses making Nubank, the largest financial institution in Brazil by number of business customers. Though we still reach only about 1/3 of that market. This is how we see the exceptional growth in Brazil. continuing to expand our customer base while increasingly serving a larger share of our customers' financial lives through better product and segmentation.
Now let me turn to our other core markets. Earlier this month, Mexican regulators approved our banking license in the country, and we're happy to be born as the largest digital bank in Mexico with more than 16 million customers. That completes our transformation from a credit-first Fintech into a full-scale digital bank, and it unlocks capabilities we did not have before. Payroll direct deposit strengthened primary banking relationships and customer engagement. Higher deposit insurance increases confidence in holding balances with us. Those deposits fund a broader credit offering while allowing us to expand into new products and customer segments over time.
Financial inclusion has been a defining part of the journey. For 35% of our customers, we were their first bank account, for 52% their first credit card, Today, our customers live in 98% of Mexico municipalities with nearly 80% outside the country's major cities, demonstrating how technology lets us reach customers everywhere. But what excites us most is what comes next. Mexico remains at an earlier stage of digital financial adoption. Bank account penetration has increased from 44% to 63% over the past decade. Just 85% of Mexicans still preferred to pay in cash. Yet the pace of change is accelerating, digital payments in Mexico continue to compound year after year. In the first half of this year, transfer below $5 grew more than 60%. And today, nearly half of all transfers in the country are less than $25. These are everyday transactions and a clear sign that cash is steadily giving way to these payments.
In June, the Central Bank introduced new rules that every financial institution must implement by the end of the year. The objective is to simplify the experience across different payment rails. Going forward, consumers will see a standard interface and follow the same steps regardless of who they are paying or how they choose to pay. Since these rules are mandatory for the entire financial system, they strengthen network effects and should further accelerate digital payment adoption.
We have seen this movie before. In Brazil, the regulatory agenda foster competition and digital innovation, expanding financial inclusion, driving everyday usage and ultimately accelerating credit adoption. Pix is the clearest example. We have put a simple and seamless experience from the very beginning, became the market leader in transaction volume and turned that into primary banking relationships. That environment toward exactly the digital model we have built. We believe Mexico is following a similar path. We can already see it in our numbers. Today, we reached 16.5% of Mexico's out of population, essentially the same penetration we had in Brazil in 2020. But the cohorts are monetizing earlier. At the same stage, ARPAC in Mexico is $12.3 against $5.6 in Brazil, higher income per capita better unit economics in the credit card product and higher interest-earning balances, all at a lower cost to serve.
Mexico is Brazil's playbook running faster and with the benefit of the scale we have today. That's how we broke even in 6 years in Mexico compared with 8 years in Brazil. To recap, customer behavior, technology and regulation are now all moving in the same direction. Taken together, they create one of the most compelling opportunities we have ever seen in Mexico. As more financial activity moves onto our platform, we build deeper customer relationships, gain better underwriting insights and expand our ability to serve a larger share of our customers' financial lives. For the first time, we now have the full set of capabilities to capture that opportunity in Mexico. And Brazil and Mexico run on the same technology stack and increasingly on the same brand.
Let me show you what that means. About a year ago, we introduced or flotation model for financial behavior. Since then, we are focused on one objective, building a single AI platform that powers business and customer decisions across the Nubank. That work spans every layer of the stack. We increased and upgraded our own GPU fleet, giving us full control of the compute layer. We expanded our architecture research efforts, and we continue building on one of our greatest advantages more than a decade of transaction history across more than 100 million customers in 3 countries. That research is unlocking compounding against inefficiency and model quality. We recently advanced the former to a hybrid linear attention the same architectural approach behind front models like KemiK3 and Quon3.5, and we trained with Moen, the same class of optimizer powering today's most efficient, large language models.
By decoupling the former core backbone for specific downstream decisions, any improvement to the central model can instantly upgrade performance across all our business lines with a cost of retraining. The latest generation quadrupled context length, trainining speed and inference speed while reducing the cost of running models in production. As we've scaled pretraining the base models, understanding of how our customers behave has become deep enough to change or we build every model on top of it. To give you 1 example, today, we can achieve the same predictive performance with 20 million fine-tuning data rows that previously required over 400 million, cutting development cycles from weeks to days. The platform now reaches nearly every decision we make.
We first deployed nuFormer in our flagship credit portfolio in Brazil. Through 2025, we replicated the model in Mexico, demonstrating that the platform generalizes across markets. During the first half of this year, we extended it to unsecured lending in Brazil and to the next generation of our core credit models. We're now testing it in credit cards for SMEs and for our Colombian customers. But underwriting is only one application. Today, AI agents handled more than 60% of customer support conversation in Brazil with customer ratings at or above human parity. Beyond underwriting and customer support, we're using artificial intelligence to optimize decisions across credit, deposits and growth, moving from predictive outcomes to determining the actions that maximize value on the real world constraints and have the same understanding of transactions that predict credit risk also predicts what a customer wants next. It allows us to recommend the products that maximize long-term customer value, personalize the app experience and move toward our vision of an private banker.
nuFormer is also improving how we grow. As the model learns our representation of how every customer behaves, we use it to put each campaign in front of the customers most likely to find it useful and more than 100 campaigns have already run this way. One platform powers underwriting, customer support, optimization and growth. every improvement we make benefits every application built on top of it. We're incredibly excited about the progress Nubank has had to date, levering AI as its informative technology and have strong confidence our approach will be a meaningful differentiation going forward.
Before we turn to our financial results, I want to say a few words about our CFO transition. As we announced in early June, Rob Livingston has succeeded Guilherme Lago as our Chief Financial Officer. Lago spent 7 years with us, 5 of them as CFO, and he handed over the role at the strongest moment in our history with our first $1 billion quarter. He has been an incredible partner, and I am glad we will keep working together in his new role as special adviser. Rob has spent the past few weeks working alongside Lago and our teams, and we're very excited to be able to counter with his significant experience. Rob, welcome. Over to you.
Rob Livingston
Thank you, David. It is a privilege to step into this role at such an important moment for the company. Since joining Nubank, I have spent time with our teams across the organization. What has impressed me most is the customer obsession, the consistency of the business model and the discipline with which it has been executed. I'm excited to help lead the next phase of Nubank's journey. And today, I'm pleased to walk you through our Q2 2026 financial results.
Let's start with our consolidated credit portfolio. Portfolio reached $39.4 billion, up 37% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. Growth remained broad-based. Credit cards increased 35% year-over-year to $26 billion. Unsecured lending grew 45% to $10.3 billion and secured lending increased 30% to $3.1 billion. Sequential growth remained solid while normalizing after a period of exceptionally strong expansion, origination does not expand in the straight line, and we see that as a healthy dynamic. Throughout the quarter, our underwriting framework remained unchanged and growth remained strong relative to the broader market. As we'll discuss in the next few slides, we're comfortable with the quality of the portfolio and the performance of the vintages we're originating.
Now turning to deposits. We ended the quarter with $45.3 billion in deposits, up 18% year-over-year and 6% sequentially, recovering the seasonal outflows we discussed last quarter. Brazil closed to $36.4 billion, Mexico was $5.7 billion and Colombia at $3.3 billion. In Mexico, deposits declined modestly again this quarter, reflecting our ongoing deposit optimization strategy. This continues to improve our cost of funding while maintaining ample liquidity with our loan-to-deposit ratio still at just 35%. Our cost of deposits was 88% of the interbank rate essentially unchanged from last quarter and 3 percentage points lower than a year ago. Overall, we're pleased with both the growth and pricing of our deposit franchise across all 3 markets. As always, our objective is not simply to maximize deposits but to build a resilient funding base that deepens customer relationships supports profitable growth and strengthens the long-term economics of the business.
Net interest income reached $3.7 billion, up 9% and net interest margin expanded 180 basis points to 22.9%. That is the result of what we laid out last quarter. The growth we put on the books, a mix weighted further towards unsecured lending and the deliberate risk expansions we made. Cost of credit reduced quarter-over-quarter to $1.7 billion. Desenrola, the government debt renegotiation program impacted this number by just about 5%. And even more important than the accounting impact the program allowed us to help nearly 1.8 million customers renegotiate past due balances and get their finances back on track. With margin up and cost of credit down, risk-adjusted net interest margin expanded to a record 12.4%, up from 9.5%.
I'm going to walk you through the drivers of this expansion in risk-adjusted net interest margin in more detail. That brings us to the risk-adjusted net interest margin bridge, and I want to focus on the expansion between Q1 and Q2. Credit income was a primary driver of risk-adjusted NIM expansion, contributing 178 basis points to the quarter-over-quarter increase compared to 152 basis points in Q1. This acceleration was driven by our strong loan growth in cards and unsecured lending in Q1, reflected in our improving loan-to-deposit ratio. Lower cost of credit contributed a further 115 basis points. The majority of the improvement in cost of credit came from the expected seasonal patterns we observed and disciplined underlying business performance rather than onetime items. Float income and funding costs both remained broadly neutral. Together, these dynamics explain the strong expansion in risk-adjusted NIM this quarter and continue to demonstrate the resilience of our underlying unit economics, supporting the sustainability of current levels going forward.
Now let me turn to asset quality. As expected, our NPL metrics continue to follow their normal seasonal pattern. 15- to 90-day delinquencies improved 16 basis points to 4.8%. That improvement reflects several underlying dynamics, which I'll unpack on the next slide. 90-plus delinquencies increased 35 basis points to 6.9%, broadly reflecting the seasonal migration of first quarter early delinquencies into the 90-plus bucket. Taken together, these metrics are consistent with the seasonal dynamics we expected and continue to support our view that the underlying quality of the portfolio remains robust.
Looking at the drivers of early delinquency, this bridge explains why the 15- to 90-day ratio improved sequentially. Seasonality reduced the ratio by 37 basis points. Against that, our intentional risk expansions in the first half of the year added back 24 basis points. Those were deliberate decisions to serve cohorts with higher expected losses, but which also generate higher risk-adjusted returns as you've seen in our risk-adjusted margin performance. Product mix and the remaining drivers are broadly neutral. We don't see any evidence in our portfolio of a broad-based weakening in consumer credit, yet we remain vigilant as always. Altogether, the 15- to 90-day ratio improved 16 basis points during the quarter.
The allowance bridge tells a similar story from the balance sheet perspective. The allowance increased from $6.1 billion to $6.6 billion. The largest driver by far was portfolio growth, contributing $342 million. Under IFRS 9, we recognize expected credit losses at origination. So growth increases the allowance before the associated interest income is earned. The intentional risk expansions we just discussed contributed another $170 million, while all other movements were immaterial, including Desenrola, which primarily affects recoveries rather than the ECL allowance due to the accounting treatment of renegotiated loans.
Together, these 2 bridges reinforce the same message. The quarter's credit dynamics were driven by growth, seasonality and disciplined risk expansion not by any deterioration in the underlying quality of the portfolio. Our approach to provisioning and coverage remains disciplined and consistent. Starting with the chart on the left, we built allowances equal to 113% of new 15-plus delinquency formation during the quarter, broadly in line with our historical averages. The chart on the right reinforces the same point. Total coverage over NPL90+ stood at 244%, meaning we continue to carry allowances equal to almost 2.5x or 90-plus balances. This provides a strong balance sheet cushion and remains consistent with the levels we've maintained over the past several years even as the portfolio has continued to grow. Together, these 2 metrics reinforce an important point, while the portfolio continues to grow across products and customer segments, our provisioning philosophy remains disciplined and consistent through the cycle.
Now one final point on credit risk, and this is an important one. As David mentioned, Nubank leads the Brazilian market in primary banking relationships. That leadership reflects the trust customers place in us. Combined with the analytical rigor of our underwriting models and the quality of the data generated through those relationships, it creates a structural edge in credit. You can see that clearly on this slide showing the percent of credit card outstandings that are 90-plus days past due in Brazil. Across every income band, our credit risk performance has been steady. This strong and stable performance is driven by customers who have Nubank as their primary banking relationship. The delinquency measures of these customers is roughly half the portfolio average.
What's the implication? That customer primacy is not only a growth and revenue advantage, it is also a credit advantage. A deeper relationship gives us richer behavioral data, strengthens our underwriting and place this Nubank at the top of our customers' payment hierarchy. Together, these factors produce consistently better credit outcomes. That is why we continue to view customer primacy as a key pillar of our credit superpower.
Now turning to our income statement. Gross revenues reached nearly $5.9 billion, up 39% year-over-year. Gross profit reached $2.4 billion during the quarter, up 43% year-over-year and 25% sequentially. As credit normalized in line with its expected seasonal pattern, its contribution to gross profit increased 41% this quarter, all fees represented 25% and flow 34%. These shares naturally fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. What matters is that all 3 components continue to grow in absolute dollars, reflecting the diversification of our business model. Looking ahead, we remain confident that credit,, fees and float will continue to complement 1 another as drivers of long-term growth profit growth.
Turning to operating leverage. Net revenues surpassed $4 billion for the first time, reaching $4.1 billion, up 8% sequentially. Operating expenses totaled $806 million, up 20% quarter-over-quarter as real estate and marketing expenses shifted from the first quarter into the second, will alongside our continued investments in international expansion. As a result, our efficiency ratio ended the quarter at 19.5%. As we discussed last quarter, the 17.6% reported in Q1 was not a run rate. Roughly 2/3 of that improvement reflected temporary timing effects, which reversed as expected this quarter.
Looking ahead, we continue to expect the efficiency ratio for the full year to average about 20%. More importantly, our long-term view remains unchanged. And we will continue to invest while maintaining operating leverage as we scale.
To conclude, Net income reached $1.1 billion for the first time in Nubank's history, up 17% from the first quarter and 49% year-over-year. More importantly, we delivered that result while sustaining a record 33% return on equity and continuing to invest across our 3 markets and in our long-term opportunities. I believe this quarter reflects the strength of the business model, David described earlier. The investments we've made in technology, AI, underwriting and customer experience continue to translate into profitable growth at scale. I'm excited to be part of this next chapter, and I look forward to continuing to build on this momentum. And with that, we'll open the call for your questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Guilherme Souto, Investor Relations Officer. .
Guilherme Souto
Thank you, operator. Could you please open the line for Mr. Tito from Goldman Sachs. .
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Unknown Analyst
I understand a little bit the different role impacts Rob, you mentioned a few different numbers. I think you said maybe 5% of provisions, but not sure if that necessarily impacted the bottom line? And just thinking because our prior calls, you had mentioned risk-adjusted margin getting back 10.8%, well above that this quarter, very good performance here for sure. But just to understand, was there an impact from this enroll out on that risk-adjusted margin given the different parts? And then I have a follow-up after that.
Rob Livingston
All right. Thanks so much, Tito. Let me take that and good to hear from you again. Yes, I did mention that this enroller had an impact of about 5% on our cost of credit. That's the main metric that we're looking at there. And so as a result, it did also have an impact on our risk-adjusted net interest margin. If you think about the progress that we made from last quarter to this quarter of almost 3% expansion in the metric, the majority of that did come from lending growth, A.nd this was really due to the strong growth that we saw in Q4 last year, Q1 last year and the matriculation of that into revenues in Q1. Now the cost of credit also contributed 115 basis points. And you're right, that this enroller would be part of that. It's a minority of the impact. The majority did come from seasonality, but also just really solid underlying credit performance.
Unknown Analyst
Okay. No, very helpful, Rob. And I think also, just to think in terms of the context, what everybody is worried about is going into next year. I mean you mentioned overall credit quality trends look good, you feel comfortable. But given the macro that we're seeing in -- how do you think about the growth outlook maybe going into 2027 and this level of risk-adjusted net?.
David Velez-Osomo
David here. So as we've said a few times to investors, we don't take a directional view necessarily on the economy. Our base assumption when we underwrite a loan is that the future will be worse than the past. The things will actually be much worse than everything we have seen. So a lot of -- everything, every single underwriting decision already assumes a deterioration by default. It has a pretty significant cushion in terms of what do we need to see for that decision to continue to be NPV positive. Obviously, we're in an environment where there is a lot of caution. We are actively looking at every single sign that we have. So far, we don't really see any significant or structural deterioration in our numbers and we continue to operate with very significant cushion in this environment.
We are also in a position where we -- while we have a large consumer base, we're still a very small percentage of the market. As we've said in last call in this call, we have 7% market share of that profit pool. So we're still a small player in that big market, and we get to cherry-pick our customers. Cherry pick them with loans and products that have very short-term duration, which gives us a huge amount of ability to react quickly, have a lot of conviction on a lot of the underwriting capabilities as we mentioned. And then primarily, we have this huge advantage, as Rob mentioned, of being the largest primary bank accounting in the country today.
Over 60% of our mass market customers use us their primary bank accounts. So that's a huge advantage because, as Rob mentioned, positions as effectively as being senior in the credit stack of a customer. And so when you combine strong analytics, significant cushion being the primary bank account and having that seniority then there is a lot of conditions for us to continue growing at a very good pace. I won't necessarily give you a specific number of growth that we continue to see the conditions to continue growing and taking share as we use a lot of these levers to do that very effectively.
Rob Livingston
Yes. And to your question on net interest margin or risk adjusted net interest margin for the foreseeable future, we see it as being in the same region as where we are today. We think that it's sustainable.
Guilherme Souto
Operator, could you please open the line for Mr. Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley.
Jorge Kuri
Hi, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions and congrats on the great numbers. I wonder -- I guess to go back to the risk-adjusted NIM at 12.4%. And maybe tie this to the usage of AI and the sophistication on your credit line increases and overall, your ability to take on more risk with lower losses. And now that you've seen maybe a full year vintage of people that you improve their offer with AI models and that you've been tracking them. Would you mind sharing some of the KPIs that you've seen? And to what extent they are tied to this 12% risk-adjusted margins because you evidently seem very confident about this being the new level. Not only you said it Rob right now, but also in an interview with Bloomberg earlier. And in the past, we have seen volatility in that number based on mix. And so I guess, yes, I just want to get to a little bit more of the KPIs that are driving that? To what extent is the AI models and get more comfort on that being a floor from here.
Rob Livingston
Yes. So thank you so much for the question, Jorge. I think a few things to say there. The first is that it certainly is the case that our sort of generated models and assisted models are more powerful than traditional logistic regression models that is incontrovertible. And we are tracking them though in the exact same way that we would have tracked our historical models. We're looking at the degree of predictability, the variance at the low end and the high end of the predictive range as well as the outcomes across both back testing as well as forward testing of that model in production.
So the macro point is that our risk approach and our credit monitoring hasn't actually shifted in this dynamic. And in fact, we are very happy to continue to have that same level of discipline going forward. I would correct 1 thing you said, though, where you said that 12% is a floor. I didn't say that it was a floor. I said we'd be in that ballpark. And so I don't want to overcommit there. But what we are seeing is that our strategy that has been partially enabled by stronger models to make intentional risk expansions that produce more risk-adjusted margin is paying off, and that's what we're seeing for the foreseeable future.
David Velez-Osomo
I think, Jorge, the additional factor always need to take into account is the increasing LDR and what LDR brings to the business model. This is something we mentioned a few times that if you look at our balance sheet, it continues to be very unlevered. You've seen this in Slide 16, how that LDR has evolved over the past few quarters. Q1 had a significant growth, but then a large cost of credit, mainly because of seasonality. As we go into Q2, we start seeing the benefits of a lot of the growth and the sort of optimization of the balance sheet. And there's a significant opportunity going forward.
We will continue to optimize the balance sheet, obviously, as we continue to grow our credit portfolio. And that just will simply be reallocating a lot of deposits that they are earning CDI or refi rate towards a much higher-yielding assets. And that obviously evolves directly into margin and into ROE. So that's a very strong dynamic that is also happening within the business model.
Guilherme Souto
Operator, could you open the line for Mr. Eduardo Rosman from BTG Pactual.
Eduardo Rosman
Congrats on the numbers. I have a question for Dave regarding I think we read recently that you became a part of the Board of OpenAI. So it would be great if you could share with us how do you believe you can help open AI, but more importantly, how this experience might help you here at Nubank?
David Velez-Osomo
Sure. Thanks, Ed. So obviously, this is not OpenAI's earnings call. So I won't get in too much of a lot. But -- but I think effectively, we discussed very openly that internally and externally that we think artificial intelligence is the most important technology transformation in our history. And it will be one of the most technological impactful shift in any business in any industry around the world. So this is a global trend and a very powerful trend.
Businesses are going to see significant transformation. And it's early days, but we're seeing it very clearly inside Nubank. We've discussed here today a lot of the different applications from credit and underwriting, but even customer-facing and and we're in the middle of a significant transformation across our organization around how we're using, putting AI in front and center as a technological trend and what will deliver as effectively an advantage.
So from that perspective, for me, getting closer to a company like OpenAI obviously provides a very interesting insight. I personally also, I think it's a great opportunity to make sure that some of these great AI companies build something great for humanity, and I have a huge amount of respect for the OpenAI team and the way they are executing this mission. So I think it's a win-win. And clearly, I mean, it's early days, but I hope I can be able to contribute significantly to the way the organization is executing.
Guilherme Souto
Operator, could you please open the line for Mr. Pedro Leduc from Itau BBA.
Pedro Leduc
Thanks, everybody. Two questions. The first, a little more homework technical. The portfolio that you now have with clients under the government renegotiation program that appeared in Stage 3, maybe in your personal loan book. And I'm assuming with a little bit less expected default loss given the fall given the coverage -- just that's the homework question as I'm trying to interpret here the movements. And then the -- and the second, a little bit back to business. In the prepared remarks when going over the unsecured lending, you mentioned the pace. You've made some comments around that. If you can give us a little more color and also 1 on your latest update on how you are on the payroll, including private payroll.
Rob Livingston
Okay. Well, let me start with the technical question there. There was a small impact on expected credit losses, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, but it wasn't material, less than $10 million. And it does appear in Stage 3 of lending is where it shows up. I do think that we are going to see a little bit more impact from Desenrola in Q3, but we've already seen more than 4/5 of that hitting us or benefiting us in Q2. And I hope that answers your question.
Pedro Leduc
The portfolio that you now have under the program, it is a Stage 3 portfolio or starts in Stage 1.
Rob Livingston
Right. So that -- no, it's in a stage 3 portfolio.
David Velez-Osomo
Yes, sure. And on private payroll, we are accelerating month-over-month. We are slowly getting more comfortable with the product. There has been a significant progress in how the product is set up in the Brazilian market, the way companies are able to get the collateral, the way the systems are working. So as we've said many times, we found as metric. And as you made bet to go too fast too quickly on a product that has so many question marks. We think we're getting close to a system that makes a lot of sense, and we are accelerating. And ultimately, the lowest cost provider and whoever treats the customer best will win this market. And so we think we're extremely well positioned to be one of the leading players in this market over the next 18, 24 months. So we have -- and we think it's a good thing for the market.
The other part that is also starting to change slightly is counter to most people's intuitions, the first people that started taking these loans were very high risk. These were not the use cases that you would expect of people refinancing -- low-risk people refinancing high-cost debt. It was actually very high-risk customers. And so from that perspective, just didn't make a lot of sense for us to be opening the door for that as we understand the true level of risk. And there is a bit of a change in behavior. Customers actually -- good customer actually seeing the opportunity to refinance then this becomes a much more attractive product for consumers.
We would love to do the trade. There's been a lot of conversations that we are fearful of cannibalizing ourselves so that we don't want it to be successful. We will be super happy being able to refinance all of the customers that want to lower interest rates for a product that has that collateral, it would be very beneficial for us to have a more diversification in our portfolio. It would add more resilience. It would be less cyclical. So strategically, it's a product that we are very we think in the long run will be very good, and we are very well positioned to do it. We just are going at right pace, and we're getting more comfortable by the month.
Guilherme Souto
Operator, could you please open the line for Mr. Uri Fernandez from JPMorgan. I have a question regarding the over $1 billion net income, and congrats on that, David. .
Unknown Analyst
I was checking here in Banco, 1 of the leading banks in Brazil. And when I look to the retail operation, it was around $1.1 billion, right? So you are very close to that. And my question is how to continue increasing this net income, David? I know your ROE are higher, you have better cost to income you have this efficiency tailwind. But you are getting very big, right? So if you can help us understand if this is just an RPA normalization you have like your mature cohorts coming or it's about new products? Or is this about Mexico. So trying to congratulate you on the $1 billion, but I also ask how to keep growing this sizable profitability?
David Velez-Osomo
Sure. A couple of points. You are right that at some point, we're not there yet. At some point, we're going to run out of Brazilian customers. We have been saying that for about 4 years. We continue to get close to 1 million customers in Brazil every quarter. And so we're very -- sorry, every month, and so we're in very good shape in terms of user count. But there'll be a time where the number of Brazilian customers will decrease T.hen the opportunity is ARPAC. And as you'll see in Slide 6, the ARPAC expansion is pretty significantly. We've gone from 13 to 17. A lot of the incumbent banks, if you look at the ARPAC there are $40 million to $45 million we don't think necessarily will get to 40 or 45 because there's a lot of fees that we don't charge. There might be a lot of products that we don't offer.
But we'll certainly -- there is significant upside from the '17 and above. And when you look at all the cohorts customers that have been with us for 7, 8 years, they're already in the mid-20s ARPAC in the higher ARPAC. So from that perspective, there's going to be -- a lot of the opportunity in Brazil is to continue increasing ARPAC. Then we have the opportunity in Mexico and Colombia. As we've said, we think Mexico -- our base case for Mexico is a business that could be 60%, 70% of Brazil, if the utilization in Mexico happens in a real-time payment system works could be as big of Brazil. It's a lower population but has 30% higher income per capita and the ARPAC that we're seeing in Mexico are equal or above Brazil. So significant opportunity in Mexico.
There is also a significant opportunity in Colombia. We are -- our business there is significantly overperforming and we're very happy with the opportunity there. So there is a huge amount of avenues of growth going back a little bit to Brazil. What we do see is that we need to have a better segmented portfolio, and that's why we announced Croma. Now we have 3 core segments and value propositions to serve better other segments like super core and high income, where we already have a lot of customers, but we're not serving them well.
We have a low share of wallet. We gave them -- they came for a credit card. We gave them a very low credit limit. And because of the sophistication and improvement in our models, we're finally able to improve or create an underwriting capability for these segments and the value proposition for a lot of the products. And then finally, SME, we highlighted here on Slide 7. This is a blue ocean. This is a big opportunity. We are already the largest SME player in Brazil, over 6.5 million SMEs. We're just beginning to monetize that entire base and the cost structure advantage that we have, especially for the small businesses is pretty significant. So net-net, yes, over $1 billion in net income, but we're looking at a gross profit pool of $100 billion from that perspective and a lot of opportunities still to grow even in our core market like Brazil.
Unknown Analyst
Super clear a if I may, just a follow-up on Croma. Do you have -- can you share any market share you have today and any goal you have for this segment?
David Velez-Osomo
I can tell you that we already have 3 out of 5 Brazilians in this bracket as customers of new. So it's not our opportunity necessarily we have to go out in the market and acquire these customers and spend a lot of money on marketing. They're already inside our base. We are -- we just haven't treated them as good as they deserve. We just haven't given them the product set and the bundle that they should need. And so that is the opportunity. There's a huge opportunity to increase the share of wallet within those 3 to 5 Brazilians that represent -- that exist in that base.
Guilherme Souto
Operator, could you please open the line for Mr. the line for Mr. Joe Elafrom Autonomous.
Unknown Analyst
Thanks, I noticed that the number of employees is down, it's down from 10,500 to 10,400 which doesn't sound like a big change, but it had been growing pretty quickly up until now. what are your hiring plans? And how is AI allowing you to use the workforce more effectively?
David Velez-Osomo
Sure. I mean I think -- we -- as you might remember, we announced getting back to the office end of last year. And that announcement caused a number of -- a meaningful amount of people to decide not to work in Nubank anymore. So there was some attrition because of that. We have rehired effectively a lot of that attrition. And so you end up being something about flat. Looking forward, we are seeing a huge amount of productivity increase with AI, and we're very excited about the potential that, that creates. But the list of things that we also want to do, the list of things that we want to build is also infinite. And so it just opens up a larger opportunity of things that we can try.
So net-net, I don't see us significantly increasing that number. I also don't necessarily see us decreasing the number feels more or less right, but it's certainly 10,400 employees that will be 2, 3, 4, 5x more productive over the next few years as we really integrate more AI with that. And then obviously, the output of that head count will be much larger than we were able to provide today. And so we're very excited about that.
Unknown Analyst
And then staying on headcount, thinking about the expansion employees in the U.S. are pretty expensive. You're moving into the U.S.? How far do you see the head count shifting towards the U.S.?
David Velez-Osomo
I don't think it's going to be a significant change in the way we are distributed today with our majority of employees are in Brazil and Latin America. We are hiring more in the U.S. and specifically in certain areas where we are able to find a certain level of talent and experience that we just cannot find in Latin America, especially around AI. So we will increase the number of head count we have in the U.S., but it will not move the needle.
I mean it might go up from 1% to 2% total, and that's sort of the level of changes. But it was obviously, it's talent that we would be adding that would be very impactful. And then as we launch U.S. as a market, and we start growing that market, then there'll be more hiring in the U.S. and hopefully, we can be very productive and efficient as we launch our market and relying a lot on a lot of the AI capabilities that we're using.
Guilherme Souto
Operator, could you please open the line for Mr. Mario Pierry from Bank of America. Let's move on for the next one. Could you please open the line for Mr. Daniel Vaz from Safra, please.
Daniel Vaz
David, on your Slide 11, you show deposit and credit financing, price optimization is still in testing with -- so I was wondering on the credit card financing, where is the biggest price for you there? I mean, is to reprice the existing revolvers, maybe you're using personalized rates to convert more transactors who never did credit card finance before. So you want to offer them a cheap interest rate there. So trying to understand where is the biggest prize there for you in credit card finance? And second, on deposits, right? So your loan-to-deposit is very low, as you mentioned. So how should we read that primarily as a funding cost level? So do you want to bring your funding costs down, so you stimulate people to put deposits there on your platform or doesn't have to do anything with that. So you want to bring more deposits, maybe pay more with for people who doesn't have deposits today. So kind of understand that where is the biggest price for an AI applicable in these 2 businesses?
David Velez-Osomo
Sure. So -- just as a reminder, one of the most important metrics for us is Net Promoter Score, NPS or a number of different other metrics around product quality. And we seek to -- we think that the way our model works is that if we build the very best product in the market, then customers will come and financial results will follow. So a lot of this optimization is not necessarily about minimizing cost, but it could also be about optimizing quality. And so the sense or the opportunity is that whenever we have a price, be it a price for a loan or a credit product or be it yields that we offer in a deposit or truly any other product that has a price then every single customer will going to have a price which will maximize that equation of quality and cost, being able to offer higher quality at a lower cost. And so that is the analytical exercise that we're increasingly investing in.
Specifically on the deposit, we just get to an equation whether we -- it would be our decision to decide if we want to optimize cost. Then we would be able to optimize the funding cost, but we would know specifically what would be what we're giving up in terms of quality and competitiveness in that opportunity. So I wouldn't necessarily think in the short term that this will drive an improvement in funding costs because we might decide to reinvest all of those gains back into the customer, especially in countries like Mexico, where we're so early and Colombia and Brazil in some of these segments.
We want -- we are still very much on day 1, we're still very much on the challenging mode. We're not in the mode of optimizing for net income, we're increasing earnings. We're investing a lot in growth. We're investing a lot in improving our products and our customer experience. And a lot of what we can do with this new model is being able to make a better decision as we trade off quality with cost for that quality. .
Guilherme Souto
Operator, could you please open the line for Mr. Mario Pierry from Bank of America, please. .
Mario Pierry
Congratulations on the quarter, it definitely was better than what we were expecting -- but 2 questions here from my part. So on the previous call, right, in the first quarter results, you guys talked about net interest -- risk-adjusted margin going back to the low levels of the second half of last year by the end of this year. So we were talking about 10.8% to 10.5%, and you jumped to 12.4%. So I'm trying to understand where is the surprise coming from what you guys were expecting? Is it that your credit models are better than you're able to grow faster than you expected? Or like because it is a big beat versus what you guys were expecting.
And then my second question is a little bit more technical, and I appreciate you guys showing the slide on Page 20 that shows the NPLs by income. But I was trying to reconcile that slide on Page 20, Page 17. Because on Page 17, you show that NPLs have some seasonality. And then when I look at this slide on Page 20, a it doesn't appear like there's much seasonality on that data. In fact, right, if we look at your NPLs, I think you showed July 25. So now has improved for every income segment that you showed. But then when we look at the overall NPL, we actually deteriorated 40 basis points. So -- does it mean that the entire deterioration that we're seeing and all the seasonality that we're seeing is coming primarily from your unsecured personal loans because again, credit cards are 65% of your loan book and that is not showing any deterioration at all.
Rob Livingston
Yes. Thank you so much for those questions. I'll start with the second 1 first. So on Page 20, as you're looking at the credit performance that we have relative to other banks in Brazil. Keep in mind that this is credit card only, of course, and the other graph is for the whole company, and it's smooth. So that's in the nice type at the bottom of the page here is that we're taking a rolling average, and that's why you're not seeing the seasonality that does actually exist in these numbers.
Going back to your first question, though, around the overperformance of risk-adjusted NIM. If you recall at the time of the Q1 earnings, Desenrola was not clearly laid out at that time. And so about 1/3 of that benefit relative to what we were expecting is coming from Desenrola, but 2/3 are coming from 2 things. One is just really solid credit performance across the board and in some cases, better than expected. And the other is the increase in our balances that we're earning yield in Q2 at the very beginning. That was driven by the growth in continuing to ramp up. And so that did slightly come in better than we expected, and we're happy to have it now. .
Mario Pierry
Okay. But just let me follow up then even -- okay, I see the footnote here that says you smoothed out the trends. But the starting point is higher than the current point for your NPLs? And when I look at your overall NPL, it's higher. So again, is it a deterioration primarily coming in the unsecured personal loans?
Rob Livingston
So it's -- I wouldn't quite characterize it as that as much as I would characterize it as a mix shift that we are seeing. And so what you see on Page 20 is essentially a disaggregated view of the portfolio by income bracket. And when you look at it that way, you do see this steady, if not decreasing performance across all 3 segments in Brazil. But when you look at our overall portfolio, there are shifts in terms of where we are lending money and it's primarily those shifts rather than deterioration within unsecured lending that's driving that increase over time. Does that make sense?
Mario Pierry
A little bit. But yes, we can follow up later. That's fine.
Rob Livingston
So think of -- yes, it's more of a mix shift rather than a dynamic where it's all coming from 1 product segment. And we can talk about it later .
Mario Pierry
Yes. And I think that the problem that I have is the -- it's not like seasonal, right? It's more like a changing mix, the volatility in NPL is more because of a change in mix rather than seasonal. .
Rob Livingston
Well, the seasonal is still there. It's more of this idea that if you look at Slide and you look at 90 plus over the past 2 years, the general trend is upwards, and that's being driven by the mix. That was my point.
Guilherme Souto
Operator, please could you open the line for Mr. Craig Maurer Murer from FT Partners.
Craig Maurer
Question specifically for Rob. Having -- with your background, and new moving into the U.S. You spent a lot of time today discussing your data advantages in terms of lending, credit is a super power and so on and so forth. How do you think your models will hold up in the U.S. considering the change in demographics and how much legwork do you have to do to rebuild those models before you can have the same degree of confidence?
Rob Livingston
It's a really good question. And I think it dovetails nicely with our commitment that we've made that we are not planning to spend more than 100 basis points in our efficiency ratio on the U.S. entry. And the reason is it will take us some time to build up the same confidence in our credit risk models in the U.S. as we have in Brazil and Mexico and Colombia, where we've been operating for years.
The way to think about it is that the platform, the new performer platform for credit models and the credit risk expertise that we have in the company will translate very, very quickly across the border, but the actual data richness in building the experience of foundational testing and having the models in place that are specifically tooled for the U.S. market will take somewhere between 12 and 30 months, depending on the degree of maturation of those curves.
So our priority at the beginning of our entry into the U.S. market when that happens, will be to test learn, build out our data set and then be ready to expand once we have that same level of confidence there that we do in our core markets.
Guilherme Souto
Okay. With that, we -- sorry, we now surpassed 60 minutes of this session. So we are now concluding today's call. On behalf of Nu Holdings and our Investor Relations team, I want to thank you very much for your time and participation in our earnings call today. Over the coming days, we will be following up with the questions received by our platform that attempted, we were not able to ask to make questions tonight. So please do not hesitate to reach out to our team if you have any further questions. Thank you, and have a good night.
Operator
The Nu Holdings conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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