Hong Kong’s economy grew 3.8% in the third quarter, its fastest pace in nearly two years

Hong Kong’s economy surged in the third quarter, exceeding economists’ forecasts. Strong exports and a rebound in consumer spending drove the city’s fastest growth in nearly two years, helping offset trade tensions.

According to early estimates from the city’s Census and Statistics Department published on Friday, October 31, the gross domestic product (GDP) surged by 3.8% from July to September compared to last year.

This number surpassed what economists had predicted and increased from 3.1% in the second quarter. 

Hong Kong’s economy grows beyond analysts’ predictions

A government representative commented on Hong Kong’s strong economic outlook, explaining that continued exports and a surge in local demand drove this performance.

“Looking ahead, we expect Hong Kong’s economy to continue growing steadily for the rest of 2025,” said the representative, who also mentioned the active financial transactions across borders as a factor in this growth.

Following the spokesperson’s remarks, industry experts acknowledged that the financial sector had played a crucial role in helping Hong Kong’s economy recover this year. They further highlighted that the city’s stock sales are set to hit a four-year high, raising $51 billion.

Meanwhile, apart from noting Hong Kong’s economic growth, analysts also pointed out that the city’s wealth management sector is recovering, with private banking assets increasing by 15%. This achievement has increased the likelihood of Hong Kong overtaking Switzerland to become the world’s largest cross-border financial center in the near future.

As a major shipping hub, the city’s strong exports this year reflect China’s situation, where international buyers rushed to purchase products before Trump’s increased tariffs took effect. 

At the same time, endeavors to explore new markets have also enabled China to cope with a trade war ignited earlier between the US and China until both countries’ leaders reached a truce this week. 

According to a Hong Kong Government report, merchandise exports experienced double-digit growth for eight consecutive months this year, continuing through September. In the third quarter, the total number of products exported increased by 12.2%, driven by heightened demand for electronics and regional trade.

As for the quarter-to-quarter performance, real GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.7%, which was much better than the average 0.2% decrease expected. Reliable sources have noted that the Asian financial capital has increased its confidence slightly after a 14-month decline in retail sales.

Additionally, tourist visits have skyrocketed this year, while a boom in initial public offerings (IPOs) has led to increased spending and advisory fees. 

The US-China relationship picks up, sparking hope for further economic growth in Hong Kong 

Eddie Cheung, a senior emerging markets strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong, acknowledged, “The rise in local asset markets and improved tourism figures are helping to restore some confidence.” 

However, Cheung predicted that growth will slow down in the last quarter. He argued that the impacts of early spending will fade and the economy will continue to change structurally as it seeks new growth opportunities and markets.

Still, the real estate sector is in a recession, which affects individuals’ willingness to spend. This year, the city is on track to meet its yearly target of a 2-3% increase. 

Economists hope this target will be achieved as the relationship between the US and China is picking up due to Trump’s visit to South Korea this week to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The two leaders met for the first time in six years, raising hopes for a de-escalation of tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

A more stable external environment could help Hong Kong benefit from a more stable external environment, even though the progress of these relationships is uncertain. 

Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.