Analysts see BTC price struggling through 2025 as long-term holders offload

The price of Bitcoin may struggle to recover through the end of 2025 as long-term holders continue offloading their positions, according to on-chain data and market analysts. 

Crypto investors are hopeful the recent breakout above $110,000 would mean the king coin is on its way back to October-start highs, but data suggest that long-term Bitcoin investors, referred to as “OG whales,” are selling enough coins to cause significant resistance in the market.

On-chain market researcher James Check believes the recent slowdown in Bitcoin’s momentum has grown from persistent sell-side activity among whales.

“The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is still not widely appreciated, but it has been the source of resistance,” Check said. “Not manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not suppression,  just good old-fashioned sellers. And it won’t become irrelevant.”

Thousands of BTC sold in market consolidation phase

According to Check’s latest report, citing data from Checkonchain, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold over 240,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the largest wave of profit-taking since January 2025. 

The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is **still** not widely appreciated, but it has been THE source of resistance.

Not manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not suppression.

Just good old fashioned sellers.

Also, it won't become irrelevant. https://t.co/4QnfCn2f7w pic.twitter.com/YiK7gtjkzj

— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) October 19, 2025

The average age of spent coins, a metric that tracks the typical age of Bitcoin being moved on-chain, has risen from 26 days at the start of 2023 to around 100 days in October this year. This implies that older coins that had been dormant for months or even years are now being reactivated and sold.

Supporting this view, Check shared another Checkonchain chart of Bitcoin’s revived supply, the total dollar value of coins being moved after a long period of inactivity, ticking upwards to its second-highest level ever to reach roughly $2.9 billion per day. 

Nearly 47% of this revived supply originated from coins last active six months to one year ago, which could mean holders who had accumulated during the 2024–2025 cycle are now exiting the market.

Handover is structural, not profit taking

James Check gave his theory in support of Reflexivity Research co-founder William Clemente III, who had posted on X late Sunday, saying the current market weakness is more of a structural transition rather than manipulation or systemic fatigue. 

“After some thinking this weekend, I believe the last year of relative weakness for BTC has mostly been a transfer of supply from OGs to TradFi. You can see this in on-chain data. This dynamic will be mostly irrelevant in coming years, just as everyone is focused on BTC’s relative weakness,” Clemente reckoned.

Discussions in the crypto community have also insinuated that institutional funds and family offices have been absorbing much of the supply, leaving older Bitcoin wallets. This slow redistribution, however, has weighed on price momentum in the short term.

“Bitcoin feels a bit stuck right now, and it’s not just random. Some analysts think the real reason is because the OG holders are finally selling. These are the people who’ve held their coins for years and are now quietly passing them to new buyers, mostly from traditional finance. That steady selling creates resistance, and that’s probably why the price isn’t moving much,” a Coinex creator claimed.

Bitcoin price rebounds, value still range-bound

Bitcoin has started this business week on a positive note, walking past the $110,000 level to reach $111,292, after a 3.7% daily gain. The largest crypto by market cap had a volatile phase last week, in which prices fell to a low of $103,602, before bouncing back after US President Donald Trump toned down tariff talks.

Despite the rebound, Bitcoin and major altcoins struggled to sustain momentum through the weekend. The crypto closed the week above $109,000, maintaining key support but failing to establish a clear breakout. 

According to data from CryptoQuant, Binance’s estimated leverage ratio, the amount of borrowed capital used by traders, declined throughout October. The lower leverage caused a pullback in speculative positioning, buoyed by the mid-month sell-off.

However, by the final full week of October, leverage began to recover slightly, rising from 0.148 to 0.166. Contributor Arab Chain noted the “slight uptick suggests that some traders have started reopening their leveraged positions amid a modest improvement in sentiment.”

The recovery in leverage followed the stabilization of prices near $104,000, which appeared to restore some confidence among futures traders. 

Sharpen your strategy with mentorship daily ideas - 30 days free access to our trading program