KindlyMD Chief cautions that not all Bitcoin treasuries will survive

According to David Bailey, KindlyMD CEO, the initial hype surrounding firms holding large Bitcoin reserves is cooling as investors become more cautious. So far, Bitcoin treasury companies have watched their market net asset values (mNAVs) tumble in the past few months.

Speaking to CNBC on Thursday, Bailey remarked, “The market’s getting more sophisticated, it’s learning how to assess what makes treasury companies different.” 

Only firms with unique features can thrive today

Bailey stated there’s little reason to launch unless a Bitcoin Treasury company offers something genuinely distinctive. He remarked, “It’s kind of like, what’s the edge? Why are you needed? Anytime there is euphoria in the market, you see good companies come to bear, and you also see not great companies come to bear.” He added that the old strategy of copying existing Bitcoin treasuries no longer works.

He also cited a variety of ways to differentiate, ranging from expanding into under-appreciated international markets to focusing on particular asset types or adopting Michael Saylor’s credit-market approach, a variant that involves acquiring and consolidating income-producing companies.

But shares have been choppy for his firm. KindlyMD dropped by 55% to $1.22 on September 15 after Bailey warned that the stock could experience more volatility in the short term.

Standard Chartered had hinted at the possibility of consolidation in the industry

Bailey predicts that top-performing Bitcoin treasury companies will soon move into “the next stage,” creating a “healthier environment” for the industry. Data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET shows public treasuries currently hold $113.8 billion.

In a September 15 warning, Standard Chartered said the collapse of several digital asset treasuries’ mNAVs has made smaller firms increasingly susceptible to financial strain. At the time, the bank explained that continued declines in mNAVs could trigger consolidation in the industry, as larger firms move to acquire struggling rivals. It added that Strategy could extend its Bitcoin buying streak through such acquisitions.

Around the same time, the VC firm Breed also warned that only a minority of Bitcoin treasury companies will prove resilient, while those priced near their market NAV may enter a “death spiral.” According to the firm’s analysts, companies demonstrating solid management, consistent execution, sharp marketing, and distinctive approaches that drive Bitcoin growth per share despite market volatility are the ones likely to command a market NAV (mNAV) premium.

Earlier this week, Metaplanet, a Japanese Bitcoin treasury company, saw its enterprise value fall below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, entering uncharted territory as one of the world’s largest public holders of the asset.

The company’s market-to-NAV (mNAV) ratio, which compares the company’s value to its Bitcoin holdings, dropped below one on Tuesday, reaching 0.99 for the first time on record, according to official data.

Data from TradingView shows that the metric has decreased by over seven points since mid-June, as the Metaplanet stock (3350) has lost 75% of its value, dropping from a high of $13 per share to $3.20 on Tuesday.

Metaplanet’s mNAV dropped below one after the firm stopped buying Bitcoin for the past two weeks, with its most recent BTC purchase announced at the end of September.

Different from traditional net asset value (NAV), mNAV is a ratio of enterprise value to Bitcoin NAV, intended to help investors gauge how the market values the firm relative to its underlying BTC holdings, according to a mNAV page on BitcoinTreasuries.NET.

Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global research chief, also outlined several drivers behind the weaker DAT premiums — including investor anxiety about upcoming unlock events, shifting management focus, higher share issuance, profit-taking, and minimal differentiation among treasury strategies.

On July 4, James Check, lead analyst at Glassnode, had stated that he suspects the lifespan of the Bitcoin treasury strategy will be significantly shorter than expected. “For many new entrants, it could already be over,” he noted. 

Want your project in front of crypto’s top minds? Feature it in our next industry report, where data meets impact.