Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: EBITDA Guidance Raised on 45Z

Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE) reported stronger third-quarter 2026 results as Section 45Z production tax credits, higher renewable natural gas volumes and improved environmental credit revenue supported earnings. Management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $5 million.

Key Takeaways

• Q3 2026 revenue was $112 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased to $27.2 million from $17.3 million in Q3 2025.
• GAAP net loss narrowed to $5.7 million from $23.8 million a year earlier.
• RNG distribution volume rose 9% year over year to 66.8 million gallons. Dairy RNG production reached 2.2 million gallons, nearly five times the prior-year level.
• Clean Energy Fuels raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $75 million-$80 million, up $5 million from its previous range.
• Q3 results included an $8.3 million catch-up benefit from applying the updated 45Z-GREET model to RNG production from the first half of 2026.
• The company repaid $15 million of term debt and ended September with $140 million in cash and investments.

Key Financial Data

Business and Operating Performance

The updated 45Z-GREET model assigned a higher value to the company’s low-carbon-intensity dairy RNG than management had assumed. Q3 included $8.3 million of catch-up credits related to first-half 2026 production.

Additional production tax credit contributions included $5.8 million from third-party RNG producers, $3.5 million from Q3 output at the consolidated South Fork, Texas project and $4.3 million from joint ventures with bp and TotalEnergies. Management expects credits from third-party suppliers generally to be recognized in the third quarter, when those suppliers file annual tax returns.

RIN and LCFS revenue increased by $4.6 million year over year, reflecting higher RNG volumes and stronger pricing for both credits. Production benefited from improved operations and two additional large dairy projects operating in 2026.

South Fork and East Valley, Idaho continued to ramp production. Of the three projects with Maas Energy Works, one was entering commissioning, another was scheduled to begin commissioning in December, and the third was expected to start operations in mid-2027. Management expects to spend less than $10 million during the remainder of 2026 to complete the Maas projects.

The company also sold approximately $31 million of tax credits in September, comprising a $26 million investment tax credit from South Fork and $5 million of 45Z credits generated by 2025 production at seven RNG projects. Four additional projects are expected to generate ITCs for sale in 2027 and 2028, although management did not quantify their potential value.

In downstream fueling, management said customer interest is increasing as fleets evaluate Cummins X15N-powered trucks, private fueling stations and use of Clean Energy’s existing network. The company signed a contract to build multiple private stations for a regional carrier and entered a fuel agreement with Penske.

Clean Energy Fuels is also placing greater emphasis on natural gas supply outside vehicle fueling. Potential applications include bridge-energy solutions for industrial customers awaiting utility connections and LNG bunkering for marine vessels, using existing compression capacity, trailers and LNG assets.

Management Guidance

Clean Energy Fuels increased its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $5 million to $75 million-$80 million. Management attributed the revision to Q3 performance and the improved value of 45Z credits under the updated GREET model.

The company said organizational changes under consideration could lead to one-time charges in Q4 2026. Further details and the 2027 outlook are expected with fourth-quarter results in February.

Risks and Watch Items

• Heavy-duty RNG truck adoption remains subject to long sales cycles, including fleet purchasing decisions, station construction and vehicle delivery.
• Management said diesel volatility supports RNG economics, but fleets generally do not expect current elevated diesel prices to persist indefinitely.
• The regulatory environment has been unsettled, and some fleets do not yet fully understand RNG’s potential total-cost-of-ownership benefits.
• Q3 SG&A included variable compensation and costs related to market and organizational optimization; management said the quarter was not indicative of the forward expense run rate.
• One LNG plant near Houston requires repairs before it can support potential marine-fueling opportunities.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Management said early technical issues with the Cummins X15N have been addressed and fleet feedback is now positive. Major fleets are issuing requests for proposals covering station construction and truck purchases, although higher production volumes have not yet reduced the incremental cost of the natural gas system.

The company expects a two-part fueling model. Larger fleets may build private stations, allowing Clean Energy Fuels to earn construction, operations and maintenance margins while supplying RNG. Other operators may lease trucks and use the company’s public station network, where management said fueling margins are higher.

For non-transportation markets, management highlighted temporary CNG supply for industrial and commercial facilities awaiting pipeline or utility connections. It also identified LNG marine bunkering near the Galveston Ship Channel and the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach as potential uses for existing assets.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Complete Earnings Call Transcript

Management Remarks

Operator

Hello, and welcome everyone joining today's Clean Energy Fuels Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Please note this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn the meeting over to Tom Driscoll, Senior Vice President, Strategy. Please go ahead.

Thomas Driscoll

Thank you, Leslie. Earlier this afternoon, Clean Energy released financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2026. If you did not receive the release, it is available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, where the call is also being webcast.

There will be a replay available on the website for 30 days. Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that some of the information contained in the news release and on this conference call contains forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.

Such forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance, and the company's actual results could differ materially from those contained in such statements. Several factors that could cause or contribute to such differences are described in detail in the Risk Factors section of Clean Energy's Form 10-Q filed today.

These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements or supply new information regarding the circumstances after the date of this release.

The company's Non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA will be reviewed on this call and exclude certain expenses that the company's management does not believe are indicative of the company's core business operating results. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to GAAP results. The directly comparable GAAP information, reasons why management uses non-GAAP information, a definition of Non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA and a reconciliation between these non-GAAP and GAAP figures is provided in the company's press release, which has been furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K today.

With that, I will turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Clay Corbus.

Barclay Corbus

Thank you, Tom. Let me start with the headlines. Both our upstream RNG production and downstream fueling businesses performed well in the third quarter. Also, positive developments on the Section 45Z clean fuel production credit helped to drive strong financial results. 45Z will improve our outlook for the remainder of 2026 as well and should strengthen our position for the years ahead. For the quarter, we reported $112 million of revenue, 67 million gallons of RNG and generated $27 million of adjusted EBITDA. Based on that performance and the improved value of 45Z, we are increasing our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $5 million to a range of $75 million to $80 million.

During the quarter, we also repaid $15 million on our term loan, leaving us $140 million in cash and investments. We funded this repayment with proceeds from tax credit sales. In September, we sold approximately $31 million of tax credits from our RNG portfolio. That included a $26 million investment tax credit, or ITC, for our South Fork project in Texas and $5 million of 45Z credits generated by 2025 production at 7 of our RNG projects. In our fuel distribution business, volumes are steady and results were solid. The combination of continued high diesel prices and positive experience with the X15N engine is translating to increasing customer interest, including large fleets evaluating private station builds alongside fueling in our network.

In our upstream business, we continue to ramp up performance at our 2 largest projects, South Fork, Texas and East Valley, Idaho. In addition, construction on the 3 projects with Maas Energy Works continues to advance. One project is currently getting commissioned, one is planning to begin commissioning in December and the final project is expected to come online in mid-2027.

ITC and 45Z tax credits are key value drivers for our upstream projects and increasingly for our business as a whole. So I want to take a few minutes to explain them. I'll keep it at a high level, and JJ will walk through the details.

45Z is a production tax credit. It's earned by projects that produce low-carbon transportation fuel like RNG. The value of the credit is set by the 45Z-GREET model, which is determined by the Department of Energy using project and fuel-specific inputs. Our 2025 production was valued under the original model published last year. That model set the value for the 2025 45Z credits we sold this past September.

Also in September, the DOE published an updated GREET model. It applies to fuels produced starting January 1, 2026. We expected an updated model this year, and our original guidance included some uplift for that.

The good news is that the new model recognizes the ultra-low carbon intensity profile of our dairy RNG fuel and the value came in above what we assumed. Now here's what that means for the quarter. We recorded first and second quarter production at the old values. So the third quarter reflects the new value for the third quarter production plus a catch-up for the first half of the year.

There is also a downstream benefit. Under arrangements with certain third-party RNG producers, we are entitled to a share of the 45Z value they generate. In the third quarter, we recognized over $5 million for their 2025 production.

So to put it simply, our upstream results reflect 2026 45Z value. Our downstream results include our share of our producer partners' 45Z value in 2025. That downstream piece matters. It shows the value of our fueling network and our RNG offtake business. We connect producers to the highest value market for RNG, which is transportation, and we aggregate that supply to deliver almost 100% RNG to fleet customers who count on us for reliable, low-cost RNG fuel.

Finally, our project at South Fork Dairy in Texas was the seventh ITC we sold from our portfolio. We have 4 more projects with ITCs we expect to sell in 2027 and 2028, which will provide additional cash.

Now I want to spend a few minutes on where we're headed. When I stepped into this role in May, I said my focus was growth, execution and operating discipline and fully using our assets, team and the latest technologies. Over the past several months, we've done a lot of work on what that means in practice. That work is now largely finished, and it's shaping how we plan for 2027.

We brought in a global consulting firm to look at 2 areas: first, the heavy-duty trucking market and the pace of natural gas adoption. Second, where else can we grow, given our long experience in alternative fuels and the capabilities and assets we already have.

On trucking, we verified the economics really do work for RNG. Diesel is expensive and volatile. After the initial bugs are worked out, the Cummins X15N engine is now performing extremely well, and our station network is built and ready today. The work has sharpened where the economics to adopt RNG clearly pays off today. Many fleets where RNG lowers the cost of ownership or TCO versus diesel still haven't made the move. That gap is our opportunity. The economics suggest the adoption of RNG should be higher, but change is hard, the regulatory picture has been unsettled and many fleets don't yet fully understand how RNG lowers their costs.

So we're changing how we go after it. Rather than pitching the entire heavy-duty market, we'll concentrate where RNG's case is strongest, lower TCO and total and lower emissions. And we'll be realistic about the pace of adoption and build our plan around that rather than wait for a step change in the market that we don't control. We are already seeing early examples of this being the right strategy.

We recently signed a contract to build multiple private stations for a regional carrier. That carrier has ordered trucks equipped with the X15N and will fuel in our current network until their stations are completed in 2027.

Another significant milestone that was crossed last quarter is a fuel agreement we signed with Penske, one of the country's largest truck leasing companies. Through its national sales force, Penske can now offer heavy-duty truck fleets a discounted price on RNG at a time when RNG is already selling at a historical discount to diesel.

Penske has deployed several demonstration trucks with the X15N around the country that are being tested by fleets, and we are encouraged by the early feedback of the truck's performance. At the same time that RNG is catching on in the heavy-duty truck market, demand for natural gas solutions outside of vehicle fueling is growing rapidly. Today, it's a small part of Clean Energy's business, but the potential is promising.

As a reminder, we currently have natural gas compression capacity through our fueling stations across the country, a fleet of CNG tube trailers that operate today primarily in the Northeast, 2 LNG plants and dozens of LNG trailers and a team that has designed and built LNG systems for power generation, ship bunkering and other applications. We're going to put more focus and discipline behind growing that business.

So here's what you should expect from us. We're aligning our company behind this newly defined focus and organizing how our management team is structured. A few items we're working through could also result in onetime charges in the fourth quarter. Nothing is final yet, but I wanted you to hear it from us now.

Let me be direct about this. This is not a change in strategy. It's more discipline in executing the strategy we already have, and we're doing it from a position of strength, a strong quarter, a strong balance sheet and a higher outlook for the year. We'll share more detail in February when we report fourth quarter results and provide our 2027 outlook.

I also want to address our share price. In my view, the decline we've seen in recent months is disconnected from the fundamentals of this business and from our improved outlook. We can't control the share price in the near term. What we can control is execution. Long-term value for shareholders is the lens we use to manage this company, our strategy, our operations and how we allocate capital.

Executing that strategy takes the right leadership team, and we've put it in place. In June, we named Bart Frabotta, Chief Operating Officer, to drive execution, operational performance and technology across the company. In October, we named JJ Armstrong, Chief Financial Officer. JJ has been with Clean Energy since 2014, most recently as our Corporate Controller and knows our business and our financials inside and out.

I look forward to you getting to know JJ better, beginning with his first earnings report in a few minutes. Also in October, we named Sean Wine, our first-ever Chief Revenue Officer.

Sean has been with Clean Energy since 2006, headed our refuse sales in the West and then took over our RNG distribution business and has managed it over the last 5 years to become our most profitable business. Creating the CRO role is one way we're acting on the work we did this year. Sean will bring our revenue teams together under one commercial strategy. And before I hand it over to JJ, I want to take a moment to recognize Bob Vreeland. For over a decade as our CFO, Bob guided Clean Energy's finances with steady judgment and professionalism. It was a genuine pleasure to work alongside, and he's a good friend. Many of you on this call have worked with Bob over the years, and I know you join me in thanking him. On behalf of the entire company, we wish Bob all the best in retirement. With that, I'll turn the call over to JJ.

Jason Armstrong

Thank you, Clay, and good afternoon, everyone. I'd first like to echo Clay's appreciation for the more than decade Bob Vreeland has given to Clean Energy. I greatly benefited from working with Bob these many years and wish him the very best in retirement.

With that, details on our Q3 results. Our GAAP net loss of $5.7 million for the third quarter of 2026 was significantly improved over the net loss of $23.8 million in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA of $27.2 million for the third quarter of 2026 was also significantly improved over last year's adjusted EBITDA of $17.3 million. The primary reason for the improvement was the 45Z production tax credit and gains in RIN and LCFS revenues over the last year.

Within our PT results is a catch-up amount of $8.3 million from applying the new GREET model values to RNG production from the first half of this year, as discussed by Clay. The remaining PTC recognized this quarter, exclusive of the catch-up amount, breaks down as follows: $5.8 million from the third-party RNG producers Clay described, $3.5 million from our third quarter RNG production at our consolidated dairy project in South Fork, Texas, and $4.3 million from third quarter RNG produced by our joint venture dairy projects with bp and TotalEnergies.

The PTC amount from the third-party producers and from our South Fork, Texas project were reported as reductions to cost of sales in our consolidated financial statements, while the PTC from our RNG joint ventures was included in earnings from equity method investments.

Lastly, we expect to recognize PTC from our RNG suppliers each year in the third quarter as we did here in the third quarter of 2026, as this generally coincides with the filing of annual tax returns by our RNG suppliers.

The other important -- the other improvement over 2025 third quarter results were our RIN and LCFS revenues, which increased $4.6 million in the third quarter of 2026. This was driven by higher RNG volumes, including the addition of our South Fork dairy and higher pricing for both credits. RNG volumes distributed totaled 66.8 million gallons, up 9% year-over-year. RNG volumes produced at our portfolio of dairy projects increased to 2.2 million gallons in the third quarter of 2026, which is a nearly fivefold increase to our production in the third quarter of 2025.

The increase was due to improved operations as well as having 2 more large dairy projects in operation in 2026 versus last year. Higher SG&A expenses in the third quarter of 2026 reflected variable costs tied to strong quarterly earnings as well as costs related to market and organizational optimization efforts.

As a result, our third quarter SG&A expense is not indicative of a go-forward run rate.

Operating cash flows for the quarter was $36.2 million, including $23.3 million in net proceeds from ITC and PTC sales. Capital expenditure totaled $5.5 million and investments in our Maas dairy RNG joint venture totaled $12 million, excluding capitalized interest. We expect to spend less than $10 million during the remainder of the year to complete our Maas Dairy projects. Our long-term Stonepeak debt amounted to $235 million at the end of September after the $15 million paydown. With that, operator, you can open the call to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we will take our first question from Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum.

Question-and-Answer Session

Eric Stine

So just on the X15N, I mean, obviously, it's been quite the wait, and it's taken longer than anyone would have expected. And I know that there were some early -- early issues that needed to be worked out. But I mean, in this environment with $6-plus diesel, if there's an environment that it's really going to work, I would think it's this.

But curious if you could just talk about how much is the fact that this is a tough market for fleets? How much that is playing into it? What you're seeing in terms of incremental cost of systems versus diesel? Just some of the things because it does seem you are more confident that kind of the page has turned and that this actually might start to be adopted.

Barclay Corbus

Yes. I mean, Eric, it's a good question. It's the question. For us, as we mentioned and as I think you're sort of seeing in the popular press out there, the X15N, it had -- let's just -- and it's any time a new technology is introduced, there's always bugs that have to be taken out. And I think that we've -- Cummins has gotten past that. And all the data and all the responses we've gotten from the fleets is that they have worked out the bugs and that the truck is working extremely well now.

We are seeing some of the major fleets in the country are now putting out RFPs looking for building stations and buying X15N trucks to put out on the road. So whether -- now whether we get those stations or not, I think it's indicative of the fact that there is renewed interest that has been accelerated by the high diesel price, but really just by the performance of this. The -- I'd say that as of right now, we haven't seen the incremental costs come down because you haven't seen volume go up.

But the TCO, given the price of diesel has definitely come down, and that's what's gotten people's attention. And while most of the fleets believe that diesel will not remain this elevated for very long, they really have -- are just getting tired of the extraordinary volatility that they're seeing in diesel. So that they -- in order to tame that volatility compared to RNG, which is so much more stable, plus the performance of the engine is really sort of giving -- having them take a second look.

So we are -- as far as the overall adoption, we're excited. Now this doesn't mean that they're going to be on the road in Q1. It's a long sales cycle. It's a long time to get the stations built. It's a long time to get the trucks on the road and painted and put the right transmission and all that. But I think we're very excited about the overall direction that things are headed.

Eric Stine

And when you think about adoption, I mean, obviously, you've got your station footprint, but you're also talking about fleets looking at having their own stations built. I mean, how do you kind of view that playing out that a fleet might say, "Hey, I'm going to use Clean Energy's footprint along their routes or that they would want their own stations?"

Barclay Corbus

I think realistically, it could -- it's going to follow a bifurcated model. You're going to have some of the larger fleets that have cheap cost of capital are going to build their own stations on their own yards, very much like you see happen in the refuse and the transit market. So where we play in that game is that we would -- we help build those stations, we get a construction margin. We do the O&M, get an O&M margin and then supply RNG and sort of work through the benefits that we have of our sort of very large looking for the word, a very large portfolio of RNG supply.

So we've been very successful in doing that in the refuse market in the transit market. So we would just assume that happens in the -- for some of the larger fleets with cheaper cost of capital. For those that don't have that and are going to be going to our stations, we use, obviously, our stations. The margin is a little bit better for us on those stations. And I think that's where some of the -- it can be really important where a deal like we have with Penske, where fleets may not be wanting to put out all their money and buying the trucks upfront, but may want to lease the trucks and come to our station and get cheaper fuel, ultimately is going to be a winning strategy.

So I think that as we look at the -- as we start to look at the adoption of what this industry and what our business can look like in the next couple to 3 years, it will be a combination of sort of backlot fueling for some of those larger fleets as well as other fleets coming directly to our stations and filling up there.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

We will take our next question from Rob Brown with Lake Street Capital Markets.

Robert Brown

I wondering if you can expand on kind of the opportunity set on some of the new markets that you sort of talked to about fuel bunkering and maybe power gen -- power supply for power gen, but what's sort of the kind of opportunity that you see there?

Barclay Corbus

We've -- as you know, we've got these stations all across the country, and we've got our business NG Advantage in the Northeast, which is really supplying CNG to standard industrial customers like hospitals or paper plants or food processing companies. And as the sort of demand for energy continues to increase and you see a lot of the data centers sucking up all that excess capacity, we found a lot of customers that are not the same loads as data centers, but are smaller loads and maybe fulfillment centers, they may be other food processing plants that are built and are waiting for power simply can't get that power.

And so we see an opportunity to be able to provide sort of bridge energy solutions until they can get hooked up to either local pipelines or the local utilities. So we definitely have seen an opportunity there. And since for us, it's a relatively low-risk dip our toe in that water. We have excess trailers. We have excess compression capacity. We just need to line up those contracts and start to fuel.

I think the other side of -- the other opportunity is really on the LNG business, which is where you see a huge increase in the number of ships that are using vessels, ocean-going ships that are using LNG in lieu of diesel or in a dual fuel solution in those large ships. Since we have -- we've got a plant that needs repairs, but we will be working on that in -- outside of Houston, so you can hit the Galveston Ship Channel as well as L.A. and the Port of L.A. and Long Beach with our Boron plant. We see those as great opportunities to take the assets that we have and sort of point them in a direction where you see -- where we see growth in the marketplace.

Robert Brown

Okay. Great. And then I think you mentioned 4 projects that you're still looking to sell the ITC for those. Can you give us a sense of what the potential value is or maybe you don't know yet, but a sense of the value for those?

Barclay Corbus

Well, we've got the -- the 4 projects include the 3 Maas projects and then our project up in Idaho. So I don't know off the top of my head, and I think we want to just be careful on that since there are so many rules that go into those, I think we want to be careful on sort of giving an indication what those are going to be right now.

Well, it's wonderful to announce earnings on a day when the market is down 5%, so nobody tuned into your conference call. But we -- Rob and Eric, we appreciate that. Everybody else who's been on the call. We appreciate you listening in, and we look forward to speaking with you at the next conference call. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.