CAD: Canada goes to the polls – ING

Canada holds a general election today; here is our market guide to the vote, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Markets expect limited CAD impact from liberal majority

"The Liberals, led by PM Mark Carney, are ahead in the polls, with the Conservatives trailing by around 3.5 points. The betting market attaches over 80% probability of a Liberal win, and 60% of Liberals securing a parliament majority."

"We assume a majority Liberal government is the market's baseline expected outcome, and would have a limited impact on the Canadian dollar. A hung government should trigger some pressure on the loonie, which could instead rally on a surprise Conservative win, as markets may see a smoother path for trade negotiations with the US."