What a $5,000 Investment in SpaceX at Launch Would Be Worth Now

The noise of SpaceX's (NASDAQ: SPCX) recent initial public offering is finally quieting down -- mostly. And, in light of all the hype surrounding this name as it prepped its IPO, you may be a bit disappointed with its performance so far.

Here's how it's fared for whom.

No one's doing great

Whether or not you're happy here largely depends on when and how you bought into your stake.

If you were one of the lucky few to directly participate in SpaceX's initial offering at a price of $135 per share, the stock's current price near $152 would mean your $5,000 investment would be worth about $5,590 now, up a little more than 12% since the June 12 IPO.

Most people weren't picked to participate in the actual public offering, though. They were forced to buy their stake in the open market at the market price. If you jumped in that same day, you paid somewhere in the ballpark of its first exchange-traded price of around $150. If that's you, your $5,000 trade is roughly breaking even, at $5,066.

Image source: Getty Images.

Of course, some people stepped into this then-rallying ticker a couple of days after its IPO, which turned out to be the worst possible time to do so. SPCX peaked at a high of $225.64 on June 16. If that was you (and it was someone), your $5,000 investment is now worth around $3,370, down nearly 33%.

Almost no one is doing especially well with SpaceX, regardless of when they got in.

Nothing unusual, and it's not over yet

Those are the numbers. The thing is, none of them really matter just yet.

Sure, anybody who bought it obviously expects SpaceX shares to move higher in the future. As veteran investors can attest, though, erratic post-IPO performance isn't particularly unusual. It could take several more months to fully squeeze out all the speculative forces at play here.

Then there's the phased-out lockup period. Employees and early stakeholders will only be allowed to sell some of their shares after second quarter results are released in early August, with progressively more shares freed up at staggered dates over the three months following that report. Other major shareholders won't be able to sell their stock until early next year, and Musk isn't able to sell any until June of 2027. Selling these shares could put downward pressure on share prices, although it's possible that most insiders and early investors will opt to stick with their positions.

It would also be naïve to pretend the market isn't going to pass conclusive judgment (even if the rhetoric suggests otherwise) on this fast-moving company until at least a couple of reported quarters are in hand, proving whether or not it's moving in a direction and at a pace that justifies the stock's premium price. Don't be surprised to see indecision in the meantime.

In other words, while SpaceX's post-IPO performance so far is lackluster, it's far too soon to worry about it. This won't be a conventional investment prospect for at least a year. In the meantime, trading it is largely an exercise in figuring out how the crowd will feel about the stock just a few days from now.

James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.