UBS 2025 EV Survey: Here are the key takeaways

Investing.com -- UBS’s latest Electric Vehicle (EV) survey signals shifting consumer sentiment, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) facing declining purchase interest. 

According to the ninth wave of the UBS Evidence Lab EV survey, which included 10,500 participants, only 41% of consumers are likely to consider a BEV, down 5 percentage points from last year. Interest in PHEVs also fell to 36%, marking another 5-point decline.

Despite these headwinds, UBS remains optimistic about EV growth. “We expect the EV growth trend to be better than the survey suggests,” analysts wrote, pointing to China’s rapid move toward BEVs, regulatory pressure in Europe, and a shift in consumer concerns. 

“EV pricing is no longer the main concern,” the note said, suggesting cost is no longer the biggest barrier to adoption.

UBS now forecasts a 17% global EV sales compound annual growth rate between 2024 and 2027, down from its previous estimate of 22%. The firm sees global EV penetration reaching 25% in 2025 and 41% by 2030, both revised slightly downward.

Brand performance also shifted. “Tesla suffers most in Europe but also loses share to local brands in China,” UBS said, while BMW (ETR:BMWG) emerged as the strongest legacy automaker globally outside China. 

The bank said BYD (SZ:002594) continues to gain traction in export markets and remains the only Chinese EV brand expanding globally.

UBS emphasized that slowing down BEV investments isn’t the answer. 

“Truly global OEMs have to press ahead with BEV innovation,” stated UBS, adding that they need to maintain flexibility to respond to regional dynamics. 

The firm identified BMW, BYD, Kia, Toyota (NYSE:TM), and GM as best positioned. BMW stood out in particular, with UBS highlighting “solid survey results, high flexibility, a strong next-gen product… and attractive cash returns.”