Bernstein issues a warning on U.S. auto stocks: The downgrade cycle isn’t over

Investing.com -- Bernstein told investors in a note Wednesday not to be misled by strong second-quarter results in the U.S. auto sector, warning that a downturn looms in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. 

The firm said that Q2 strength is a “mirage,” driven by tariff-related demand pull-forward rather than sustainable growth.

“Tariff-driven demand pull-forward has flattered U.S. auto sales and earnings,” Bernstein analysts wrote, noting that March and April volumes rose 9.4% and 10.4% year over year, respectively. 

Pricing is said to have remained stable and discounts modest, helping manufacturers preserve net pricing. But Bernstein emphasized, “This is temporary, not a structural recovery.”

As consumers rushed to buy before tariffs took effect, automakers are now expected to face weaker demand in the months ahead. 

“Pull-forward leaves a vacuum in H2: expect a 3–4% SAAR hit,” Bernstein warned, estimating that around 300,000 units were shifted into early 2025, creating a potential shortfall in the second half.

Production cuts already reflect the caution, according to the firm. “OEMs cut production plans by -6.7% from Q2/25–Q4/26,” with the most severe reductions expected in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. 

They add that battery electric vehicles are being hit hardest, with average planned production down 17.5% per quarter, though internal combustion engine models account for most of the overall volume declines.

Bernstein sees further downside ahead: “The downgrade cycle isn’t over, estimates for H2 and 2026 still too high.” 

The firm expects investor optimism to fade as summer data confirms softer sell-through and rising discounts. “Valuations have rebounded on the hope of tariff relief and haven’t priced in the tougher outlook,” the analysts concluded.