Paramount Group raised to buy at Evercore ISI

Investing.com -- Evercore ISI upgraded Paramount Group (NYSE:PGRE) to Outperform following the company’s announcement that it is exploring strategic alternatives, a move the firm believes creates a compelling risk-reward opportunity.

On Monday, Paramount Group said its board had formed a committee to explore options and hired BofA to assist in the process. 

Simultaneously, longtime CFO and COO Wilbur Paes and General Counsel Gage Johnson stepped down, with internal candidates being the replacements. 

Evercore ISI sees these developments as signaling the potential for a company sale, writing that “it is more likely than not that the company is exploring a sale.”

The firm conducted a detailed asset-by-asset net asset value (NAV) analysis, estimating a range between $8.03 and $12.75 per share, with a midpoint of $10.26.

Still, analysts cautioned that “we don’t believe an entity level buyer would actually pay ‘NAV’ as there are risks attached such as taking a few years to fully stabilize the portfolio.”

Evercore ISI derived a new price target of $8 per share using a blend of relative valuation and discounted cash flow analysis. 

This is said to imply 48% upside from after Monday’s 13.2% gain. “This represents a 3:1 risk/reward scenario,” the firm wrote.

Even so, Evercore’s upgrade of the stock comes with caveats. “There is a chance that the company does not complete or accept an offer but rather stays the course, which clearly would not be the optimal outcome for shareholders,” the firm warned, noting Paramount previously rejected a $12 per share offer in early 2022.