Cantor downgrades Marvell Technology: Potential catalysts ’few and far between’

Investing.com -- Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) Technology to Neutral from Overweight in a note Wednesday, citing growing concerns over the company’s future custom silicon business and key client defections. 

The firm also cut its price target to $60 from $125, warning that potential revenue declines in 2027 could undercut long-term earnings growth.

“While we believe the meaningful sell-off of MRVL shares since peaking in January reflects loss of Trainium Gen3 AMZN, we do not believe it reflects loss of MSFT Maia Gen3 — which we are hearing will happen from our industry checks,” Cantor wrote.

The firm explained that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) appears to be shifting some of its next-generation Trainium chips to another supplier, Alchip, suggesting Marvell’s custom silicon designs may be losing traction. 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), meanwhile, is said to be transitioning its Gen3 Maia chips—code-named Griffin—to Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) starting in 2027. 

“All of which points to a much less sticky business than we had originally thought,” Cantor noted.

Although Marvell could still post “solid to strong custom silicon revenue growth in CY25/26,” Cantor expects earnings power to retreat to around $3.00 in 2027, well below prior targets. 

The firm added, “It’s hard to see MRVL catching a multiple until we have more clarity on other wins.”

Adding to investor unease, Cantor noted that Marvell postponed its planned June 10 Investor Day to 2026, opting instead for a smaller webinar focused on its custom silicon business. 

According to Cantor, this delay suggests “potential catalysts will be few and far between over the near- to medium-term.”