Macquarie: Las Vegas trends remained stable through Q1

Investing.com -- Las Vegas gaming trends remained steady in the first quarter of 2025 despite a tough year-over-year comparison, according to a note from Macquarie’s senior Gaming, Lodging&Theatres analyst Chad Beynon.

“The Vegas Strip generated monthly revenue of $682 million in March (-5% YoY) owing to baccarat drop down 9% in addition to a 500bps hold headwind,” Beynon wrote. 

Despite the March decline, the firm said total gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the Strip in the first quarter rose 0.4% from a year ago, a positive result given February’s difficult Super Bowl comp.

Slot revenues reportedly proved resilient, rising 5% year over year in March, while table revenue dropped 17%. 

“January’s $840 million (+22% YoY) was the third-highest monthly total ever,” thanks to favorable calendar effects, weather comparisons, and high hold rates across baccarat and slots, the analyst noted.

On the non-gaming side, Strip revenue per available room (RevPAR) is said to have risen 1% in March, but was down 7% for the quarter. Visitation also declined 7% year over year.

Macquarie emphasized that “Vegas trends look stable,” pointing to positive commentary from operators at its March consumer conference. 

Management teams, including Caesars (NASDAQ:CZR), remain “optimistic that group business will grow this year and again in ’26,” with major conventions like Con/Agg Citywide returning, according to the firm.

Focusing on CZR specifically, Beynon noted that in the past two years, its shares have disappointed given competitive openings, low-end consumer pressure, high operating leverage, rising interest rates, and low retail/online hold. 

However, “with that now in the past, we believe CZR land-based business can grow in ’25,” stated the analyst. “Further, with Digital growing EBITDA by ~$180m and lower capex, we believe investors will soon recognize CZR’s FCF/equity.”

The firm maintained an Outperform rating and a $46 price target on CZR. “We still recommend CZR given the deleveraging story, Vegas strength, and Digital path to profitability,” concluded Beynon.