Rivian stock could fall by nearly 50%, Bernstein warns

Investing.com -- Bernstein has reiterated its bearish stance on Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN), warning that the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s shares could face nearly 50% downside from current levels due to mounting tariff pressures and financial headwinds.

The firm maintained its Underperform rating and $6.10 price target, implying a 47% drop from Friday’s closing price of $11.47.

The EV startup, which manufactures all its vehicles in the U.S., imports key components—specifically batteries—from South Korea and China.

With tariffs on imported batteries set to increase in May, Bernstein analysts believe the added cost burden will weigh heavily on the company’s outlook.

“We expect Rivian to discontinue its Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) variants, downgrade volume and EBIT guidance, and be forced to consider raising fresh equity,” analysts led by Daniel Roeska wrote.

Bernstein slashed its 2025 delivery forecast to 37,000 units, down 20% from the midpoint of Rivian’s guidance.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach negative $2.2 billion, 17% below the company’s forecast.

The analysts also warned that the company may fail to meet gross profit breakeven before the second half of 2027, a milestone tied to Volkswagen’s planned $1 billion equity investment.

Beyond tariffs, the analysts noted growing risks around Rivian’s $6 billion Department of Energy loan, tied to the expansion of its Georgia plant. Deteriorating financial metrics could breach loan covenants and delay access to critical funding.

“Combined, we worry that an equity raise is likely back on the table,” the analysts added.

While the company has outperformed legacy automakers since the tariff announcement, the analysts see "significant risks to the company’s balance sheet" stemming from the tariff headwind.

The firm values the company at 1.05x 2030 sales and applies a 12.2% discount rate to reach its unchanged $6.10 target.