TD Cowen bullish on nat gas players but cuts Occidental rating on oil headwinds

Investing.com -- TD Cowen upgraded gas-weighted energy stocks like Antero Resources (NYSE:AR), Expand Energy , Gulfport Energy (OTC:GPORQ) given an improved natural gas outlook following recent U.S. tariff announcements, but it downgraded Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) due to growing oil-related headwinds.

Antero Resources was upgraded to Buy with analysts pointing to a potential free cash flow surge starting in 2026.

TD Cowen said lower oil prices, down nearly $10 since April 2, could reduce oil drilling activity and shrink associated gas supply.

This could push 2026 storage below normal just as demand grows, analysts at TD say.

Antero’s exposure to Appalachian gas and premiums for both natural gas and NGLs make it well-positioned, with a modeled 2026 FCF yield of 12%.

Occidental Petroleum was downgraded to Hold as TD Cowen shifted its preference toward gas-exposed names.

The firm cited weaker returns, elevated debt, and continued productivity issues in OXY’s Delaware Basin acreage.

Cash flows are under pressure, and ROC remains challenged by overhangs from debt and Berkshire’s preferred shares, analysts said.

Price target was cut to $45 from $60.

Gulfport Energy was upgraded to Buy with a $197 price target, up $10, after shares fell 14% post-tariff news.

TD Cowen sees the drop as overdone, noting Gulfport’s attractive 2025 cash yield of 17% and a discounted EV/EBITDAX of 3.03x compared to peers at 5.2x.

Execution remains strong, and TD view the valuation gap as unwarranted.

Expand Energy was also lifted to Buy, with Cowen citing its growth potential in dry gas and exposure to the Gulf Coast.

Production is expected to grow 13% in FY25, with a forecasted FCF yield of 14% in 2026. Shares are down 10% since April 2, offering what the firm calls a “tactical entry point.”