Barclays cuts Novo Nordisk estimates on lower Wegovy, Ozempic volumes in the U.S.

Investing.com -- Barclays (LON:BARC) has lowered its first-quarter 2025 estimates for Novo Nordisk (CSE:NOVOb) (NYSE:NVO) ahead of its Q1 2025 report, citing weaker-than-expected prescription volumes for key drugs Wegovy and Ozempic in the U.S.

The investment bank now expects sales and operating profit to come in 2% and 3% below Bloomberg consensus, respectively.

Although the first quarter included positive developments—such as the removal of Wegovy from the FDA’s drug shortage list and the rollout of the NovoCare direct-to-patient initiative—these efforts have not translated into enough volume growth to meet earlier forecasts.

“Scripts did not grow to the extent we needed them to to meet our forecasts and we're cutting our figures for U.S. Ozempic and Wegovy,” Barclays said in the report.

For full-year 2025, the bank now projects 19% constant-currency sales growth, which falls below the midpoint of Novo’s guidance range of 16% to 24%.

While the company has maintained its guidance for 19% to 27% operating profit growth at constant exchange rates (CER), Barclays flagged the potential for a guidance cut when Novo reports first-quarter results, depending on whether volumes recover in the remainder of the year.

“The remaining 3 quarters of the year will come down to how much volume Novo can get back once compounding rolls off in the U.S. in May,” analysts wrote.

Prescription trends for Wegovy have remained relatively flat, with management continuing to emphasize cardiovascular benefits and access through NovoCare.

“The question comes down to whether or not we should expect a rebound after compounding rolls off,” analysts continued.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk has intensified legal and regulatory actions to curb unauthorized compounded semaglutide, ahead of expected U.S. regulatory decisions in late May.

Despite the near-term headwinds, Barclays maintained its Overweight rating and DKK 900 price target, citing confidence in the long-term trajectory of the GLP-1 franchise.