Morgan Stanley lifts Global-e rating, says growth targets achievable

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley upgraded Global-e Online Ltd to Overweight from Equal-weight saying company’s growth targets were achievable, amid improved sentiment around Shopify’s Managed Markets, and potential upside from Borderfree.com.

The price target was lowered to $46 from $50, reflecting 30x projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA.

“We believe investor expectations have moderated to a more reasonable level, and we like achievable growth targets&cheap optionality in Borderfree.com,” analyst at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said.

The brokerage expects Global-e to achieve positive GAAP EPS by 2026, with estimates of $0.99 in 2026 and $1.42 in 2027, driven by steady revenue growth and improving margins.

Morgan Stanley believes increased tariffs could benefit Global-e as merchants seek to simplify operations and manage compliance in a shifting global trade environment.

With tariffs in the spotlight, Global-e's exposure remains fluid,” the note stated, adding that rising tariff uncertainty could enhance the company's appeal to merchants.

Morgan Stanley noted that concerns around Shopify’s Managed Markets have eased following Global-e’s 2024 performance, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) reaching $250 million, aligning with more realistic expectations.

Additionally, Borderfree.com presents a potential long-term growth driver. Management highlighted that top merchants on the platform generate about 10% of their revenue through the site, signaling strong network effects.

Global-e’s plan to charge a 10% revenue share on Borderfree.com GMV could become a meaningful revenue contributor by 2027.

Global-e is trading in line with peers despite faster projected growth and a more favorable outlook. Morgan Stanley believes the company’s mid-20s percentage revenue growth and inflection to GAAP profitability provide a compelling case for future stock appreciation.