Coinbase: Bernstein expects regulatory tailwinds to drive crypto industry

Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts see regulatory clarity and U.S. market dominance as key tailwinds for Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), initiating coverage of the stock with an Outperform rating and a $310 price target, representing a 69% upside.

With the Trump administration aiming to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world," Coinbase remains the largest U.S. crypto exchange with a 66% market share and is well-positioned to benefit from policy shifts. 

Bernstein forecasts Coinbase's EPS to grow at a 38% CAGR, significantly outpacing consensus estimates by 30% for 2025 and 61% for 2026.

"We expect strong regulatory tailwinds to drive crypto industry to the American financial mainstream," Bernstein wrote.

They note that the Trump administration has already completed initiatives such as a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and the banking adoption of digital assets (SAB 121). 

Additional legislation, including a stablecoin bill in the first half of 2025 and a broader market structure bill in the second half, could further accelerate growth, according to Bernstein.

Although regulatory clarity may bring increased competition from banks, brokers, and fintechs, Bernstein expects U.S. reshoring of crypto trading to offset pricing pressures. 

The firm projects a 34% CAGR for Coinbase's trading revenue through 2026, even with a slight market share decline from 66% to 60% and a 20% drop in premium retail pricing.

Beyond trading, Coinbase’s subscription and services business is said to be growing rapidly, with USD stablecoins and crypto yield services such as staking leading the way. 

Bernstein expects non-trading revenue to grow at a 31% CAGR through 2026, helping to balance the volatility of trading revenue.

Bernstein values Coinbase at 21x 2026 P/E, seeing long-term upside as regulatory clarity strengthens the U.S. crypto market and fuels industry growth.