Brinker stock downgraded as valuation now ‘fully stretched’

Investing.comOct 31, 2024 3:42 PM

View all comments（0）



Investing.com -- JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) cut its rating on Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) shares to Neutral from Overweight. The firm says it sees the stock as “fully valued” following a recent rally.

The restaurant chain operator posted a 14.1% comparable sales growth in the first quarter, including a 6.5% increase in customer traffic. These results continued the positive trend from the fourth quarter of 2024, which posted a 14.8% comparable sales growth.

Brinker's recent success has been attributed to the "3 for me" promotion and its subsequent pivot to the "Big Smasher" combo, priced at $10.99.

Since Kevin Hochman took over as CEO on June 6, 2022, when the stock price was at $30, Brinker has seen a remarkable turnaround with the stock price reaching $104.

Hochman's leadership focused on Brinker's core offerings, which now include the "Triple Dipper," contributing to 11% of sales. However, JPMorgan forecasts a deceleration in comparable sales growth to 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a normalization to 2-2.5% over the following years.

The Wall Street firm’s fiscal 2025 estimates for Brinker are above the company's guidance, with projected revenues of $4.84 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.00. The firm also anticipates continued EPS growth in fiscal 2026 and 2027.

While business momentum appears strong, JPMorgan believes Brinker's stock valuation is “fully stretched,” setting a price target of $100.

Separately, analysts at BMO Capital Markets also downgraded EAT shares to Market Perform, saying they now “better reflect the strength of the Chili's turnaround.”

“Shares have appreciated 200%+ over last 12 months, well ahead of our casual dining coverage and more 5x+ the increase in S&P 500,” BMO analyst Andrew Strelzik noted.

“While we materially raise estimates and increase our target to $105, we now assign a 9.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on our out-year (FY26) EBITDA to account for potential additional earnings upside and are hesitant to push our target multiple further,” he added.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

Today’s Market Recap: Broadcom and Nvidia Lead Tech Gains, Oil Prices Surge, Gold Under Pressure

TradingKey - On July 8, Eastern Time, US stocks showed divergent performance. Escalating conflicts between the US and Iran pushed energy prices back up, fueling market concerns over sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve's policy path, which dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&

NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Forecast: DeepSeek Building Its Own Chip - Is $197 the Bottom?

Reuters says DeepSeek is building its own AI chip to cut ties with Nvidia. NVDA slipped 2% on the news but still holds $197. The chart has flipped to a long setup. 61 analysts Buy at $301 avg target.

Japan and South Korea Stocks Surge at Open: Nikkei 225 and Kospi Soar Together, SK Hynix and Kioxia Jump 8%, Samsung and SoftBank Follow

Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher and continued to rise, with the KOSPI Index and the Nikkei 225 index gaining to varying degrees. SK Hynix and Kioxia surged by approximately 8%, while Samsung Electronics and SoftBank tracked the gains.

US Stocks Close: Dow Plunges 1.09%, Nasdaq Rises Against Trend, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Gains Over 2%; Trump Announces End of US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement, Some Fed Officials See Need for Rate Hike.

TradingKey - Donald Trump publicly stated that he has no intention of resuming any agreement negotiations with Iran, dampening market trading sentiment. The three major US stock indexes diverged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average taking a hit, the Nasdaq Composite rising, blue-chip stocks declining, and memory chip stocks rebounding. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.09% to 52,348.39 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.20% to 25,870.65 points; and the S&P 500 Index fell 0.28% to 7,482.71 points.

FOMC Minutes: Fed Shifts to Neutral Wait-and-See Stance, a Few Officials See Need to Raise Rates, Upside Inflation Risks Become Core Conflict

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June 16-17 FOMC monetary policy meeting on July 8. The document shows that the Fed's policy has completely shifted to a neutral, wait-and-see stance, with upside risks to inflation becoming the core contradiction. This FOMC meeting sent a clear signal that the Fed has completely moved away from its previous unilateral rate-cut bias and entered a period of two-way, flexible policy observation. Higher-than-expected inflation stickiness and its broadening scope are the core reasons for this policy shift, while the resilience of employment and growth provides room for flexible policy adjustments. Officials confirmed a further rise in inflation, noting that pressures are no longer confined to exogenous factors such as energy and tariffs. Instead, price increases have spread across a wide range of categories including transportation, airfares, and oil, with service inflation excluding housing showing almost no improvement. In the short term, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and the marginal effects of tariffs fade, inflation is expected to decline gradually.

Featured Tools