Natera Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook as Q3 Sales Rise 34%

Natera Inc. (NASDAQ: NTRA) raised its 2026 revenue guidance after third-quarter sales increased 34%, supported by higher testing volumes and a strong contribution from its oncology business. The diagnostics company now expects full-year revenue of $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion, a $140 million increase at the midpoint from its previous range.

Revenue reached $794.0 million in the quarter ended Sept. 30, up from $592.2 million a year earlier. Excluding changes in revenue estimates for tests delivered in prior periods that were fully collected, revenue grew about 42% year over year, according to the presentation.

Natera processed more than 1.09 million tests during the quarter, an increase of more than 22% from 894,000 in the third quarter of 2025. The company attributed its volume performance to continued activity across women’s health, organ health and oncology.

Oncology volumes drive growth

Clinical molecular residual disease, or MRD, oncology volumes were a central growth driver. Natera processed about 316,000 clinical MRD tests across Signatera and Latitude, up more than 56% from 202,000 a year earlier. Volumes increased by roughly 33,000 from the second quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter with sequential growth exceeding 30,000 tests.

The company said MRD adoption was broad-based across tumor types, with strength in bladder cancer following regulatory approval and inclusion in National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines. Commercial expansion and clinical data readouts also continued to support adoption.

Natera highlighted several additional oncology developments. Medicare coverage for Signatera was established for serial surveillance testing in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. The supporting real-world study of 125 patients reported longitudinal sensitivity of 83% for Signatera, compared with 42% for alpha-fetoprotein, along with 100% longitudinal specificity.

In Japan, Signatera received approval from the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency for colorectal cancer in June and as a companion diagnostic in muscle-invasive bladder cancer in September. Natera said commercial launch plans remain on track, subject to final reimbursement and pricing expected by year-end.

Pharmaceutical testing, trial services and data-licensing revenue across oncology and organ health totaled $63 million for the first nine months of 2026, compared with $36 million for all of 2025. Natera announced seven new partnerships since May and said Signatera has been selected for several clinical programs, including Phase III trials.

Margin holds steady as investment increases

Third-quarter GAAP gross margin was 64.7%, compared with 64.9% a year earlier. Excluding prior-period revenue true-ups, gross margin was 63.2%, an increase of about 140 basis points from the second quarter and about 190 basis points from the prior-year period. Natera cited efficient cost-of-goods performance for recently launched products and sequential improvement in Signatera average selling prices.

The net loss per diluted share was $0.42, compared with $0.64 a year earlier. Research and development expense rose to $242.4 million from $173.4 million, reflecting spending on the FIND colorectal cancer screening study, assay development and Signatera clinical trials. Selling, general and administrative expense increased to $333.7 million from $308.5 million.

Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $1.10 billion at Sept. 30, up $21.1 million from the end of 2025. The company also reported an unchanged $80.3 million line of credit.

Higher outlook and long-term target

Natera’s revised 2026 revenue forecast of $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion compares with its previous guidance of $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion. Management cited continued volume growth, conservative assumptions for average selling prices and a strong oncology contribution.

The company maintained its full-year gross-margin outlook of 64% to 66% and continued to forecast positive cash flow. It increased its expected SG&A range to $1.225 billion to $1.30 billion from $1.125 billion to $1.225 billion, reflecting one-time expenses and accelerated Signatera marketing. Projected R&D spending was adjusted to $825 million to $925 million from $800 million to $900 million as Natera invests in the FIND study, MRD trials and pharmaceutical programs.

For the longer term, Natera projected annual revenue of $6 billion in 2029. The company identified oncology volume and pricing, international expansion including Japan, pharmaceutical and data-licensing revenue, and steady growth across women’s health, organ health and rare disease as the principal drivers of that target.

Natera also reported progress in early cancer detection. Enrollment in the FIND-CRC prospective screening study was completed with 30,000 patients in the premarket approval cohort, while its multi-cancer early detection assay received FDA Breakthrough Device Designation in October 2026. The company said both programs are positioned to support FDA submissions.

The outlook remains subject to execution and regulatory risks. Natera said its quarterly results may fluctuate and noted uncertainty around product adoption, reimbursement, clinical-study outcomes, competition, laboratory capacity, reliance on limited suppliers and its ability to scale operations. The company has incurred net losses since inception and expects net losses to continue for the foreseeable future. It also cautioned that its market estimates and long-term financial projections may prove inaccurate.