National Fuel Gas FY2026 Adjusted EPS Rises 9%, FY2027 Outlook Set

National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE: NFG) reported 9% growth in fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share and issued initial fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00 to $6.40. The new outlook incorporates a lower assumed natural gas price while the company expands its regulated utility operations and prepares to separate its upstream and gathering business.

For the fiscal year ended September 30, 2026, adjusted EPS rose to $7.55 from $6.91 in fiscal 2025. GAAP EPS increased to $7.02 from $5.68, while GAAP earnings reached $665.4 million, compared with $518.5 million a year earlier. Adjusted operating earnings were $689.8 million, up from $630.5 million.

Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS was unchanged at $1.22. Quarterly GAAP EPS declined to $1.02 from $1.18, and GAAP earnings fell to $97.5 million from $107.3 million. Items affecting comparability included costs associated with the Ohio utility acquisition and the planned separation of the Integrated Upstream & Gathering business.

National Fuel generated $198.6 million of free cash flow in fiscal 2026, compared with $208.3 million in the prior year. The company defines free cash flow as operating cash flow less investing cash use, adjusted for acquisitions and divestitures. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.50 billion from $1.41 billion.

Upstream Business Drives Earnings Growth

Adjusted EBITDA for Integrated Upstream & Gathering rose to $1.06 billion from $975.2 million. The business produced 419 Bcf during fiscal 2026 and ended the fourth quarter with average net production of about 1.1 Bcf per day.

The unit’s capital efficiency improved to $1.40 per Mcfe in fiscal 2026 from $1.86 in fiscal 2023, excluding acquisitions, discretionary land spending and third-party midstream investments. National Fuel said its Appalachian position contains more than 25 years of inventory with PV-10 breakeven prices below $2.25 per MMBtu, assuming about 25 wells are brought online annually.

Appraisal activity reduced near-term production, according to the presentation. Upper Utica results confirmed low breakeven levels, although the company said the Lower Utica offered better economics. More intensive completion designs also showed greater Lower Utica frac interactions. The fiscal 2027 program will focus on completing Upper Utica tests, using a Gen 3 completion design and optimizing development sequencing. Management expects to resume production growth from fiscal 2028 with a Lower Utica-focused program and is targeting a long-term 15% improvement in capital efficiency.

For fiscal 2027, National Fuel expects production of 400 Bcfe to 435 Bcfe. Firm sales cover about 90% to 95% of expected remaining production, while approximately 65% of forecast output is paired with a NYMEX financial hedge or fixed-price arrangement. Expected spot exposure is limited to 15 Bcfe to 45 Bcfe.

The company plans to expand firm transportation capacity to about 1.5 Bcf per day by fiscal 2030 from approximately 1 Bcf per day currently, increasing access to Pennsylvania, Northeast, Southeast and Gulf Coast markets.

Regulated Operations Expand

Pipeline & Storage adjusted EBITDA was broadly stable at $271.4 million, compared with $270.8 million in fiscal 2025. Utility adjusted EBITDA increased to $195.0 million from $183.7 million.

National Fuel completed its acquisition of an Ohio natural gas utility on October 1, 2026. The transaction doubled the utility rate base and increased the company’s customer base to about 1.1 million across New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The acquired operation did not contribute to the adjusted EBITDA figures for the 12 months ended September 30.

The Tioga Pathway and Shippingport Lateral projects entered service on November 1, adding about $30 million of expected annual revenue. The planned Line N System Upgrade is designed to add 294,000 Dth per day of capacity and approximately $20 million in annual revenue, supported by contracts of at least 15 years. It is targeted to begin service in November 2028.

Regulatory developments included approval of a $10.4 million Pennsylvania utility base-rate increase, with new rates effective in November 2026. In New York, regulators approved a System Modernization Tracker in August. National Fuel’s interstate pipeline subsidiary also placed new rates into effect on November 1, subject to refund, while settlement discussions continue.

The company expects regulated rate base growth of about 5% to 7% over the long term, supported by pipeline expansion, system modernization and investment in the Ohio utility.

Fiscal 2027 Outlook and Separation Plan

National Fuel’s fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00 to $6.40 assumes a NYMEX natural gas price of $2.85 per MMBtu and an in-basin spot price of $2.15. By comparison, fiscal 2026 actual prices were $3.61 and $2.80, respectively. The guidance also reflects existing hedges, firm sales and transportation contracts.

Pipeline & Storage revenue is projected at $475 million to $500 million, up from $432 million in fiscal 2026. Utility operating income is expected to reach $235 million to $255 million, compared with $123 million, reflecting the expanded utility business. Integrated Upstream & Gathering production guidance spans 400 Bcf to 435 Bcf.

Total fiscal 2027 capital spending is forecast at $1.09 billion to $1.22 billion. That includes $600 million to $640 million for Integrated Upstream & Gathering, excluding $50 million to $100 million of discretionary land spending; $140 million to $180 million for Pipeline & Storage; and $350 million to $400 million for the utility business.

National Fuel plans to separate Integrated Upstream & Gathering into an independent company named Seneca Resources through a tax-free distribution to shareholders. National Fuel would retain the regulated utility and pipeline and storage businesses. The company expects to retain up to a 19.9% interest in Seneca and later dispose of that stake in a tax-efficient manner. Completion is targeted for the second half of calendar 2027.

The transaction remains subject to final board approval, effectiveness of a Form 10 filing, financing arrangements, favorable tax treatment and other customary conditions. National Fuel also identified commodity-price volatility, regulatory outcomes, project execution, production uncertainty, financing conditions and potential disruption or unanticipated costs from the separation as material risks to its plans and outlook.