Sinclair Raises 2026 Outlook as Political Advertising Surges

Sinclair Inc. reported a 16% increase in third-quarter revenue and more than doubled adjusted EBITDA as political advertising surged ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The broadcaster also raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, with annual political ad revenue now expected to reach a record of approximately $455 million.

Total revenue rose to $893 million from $773 million a year earlier. Political advertising contributed $136 million, up 55% from the comparable quarter of the 2022 midterm cycle, while distribution revenue increased 1% year over year to $426 million. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, climbed 113% to $213 million from $100 million, supported by political advertising, distribution revenue growth and expense management.

Local Media and Tennis Channel

Local Media generated $789 million in revenue, up 18% from $667 million in the prior-year quarter. Political advertising accounted for $135 million of the segment’s revenue, compared with $6 million a year earlier. Local Media adjusted EBITDA increased 123% to $205 million from $92 million.

Sinclair said its station footprint remains well positioned across battleground states. The company expects 2026 political advertising revenue to be about 12% above the 2024 presidential election cycle and 37% higher than the 2022 midterm cycle. Management also expects political advertising momentum to extend into the 2028 presidential cycle, which is set to feature open primaries for both major parties.

Tennis Channel revenue increased to $71 million from $67 million. Direct-to-consumer subscribers rose 48%, core advertising revenue grew 21% and distribution revenue increased 2%. Adjusted EBITDA slipped to $15 million from $16 million, primarily reflecting higher costs associated with building out the direct-to-consumer platform.

AMP Media expanded its content portfolio during the quarter by launching three podcasts and broadening partnerships with SMAC Entertainment and Athletes First. Separately, EdgeBeam advanced the commercialization of ATSC 3.0 services by signing its first broadcaster advertising agreement and delivering local advertising across four sites in three markets.

2026 Guidance Raised

Sinclair now expects full-year revenue of $3.53 billion to $3.60 billion, up from its August forecast of $3.40 billion to $3.54 billion. Local Media revenue is projected at $3.11 billion to $3.16 billion, compared with the previous range of $3.00 billion to $3.12 billion.

Full-year adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $825 million to $835 million, above the prior range of $730 million to $760 million. Local Media adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $805 million to $815 million, compared with the earlier outlook of $710 million to $740 million.

The company attributed the higher outlook to the record midterm political advertising cycle, favorable subscriber churn and cost management. Political advertising guidance increased to approximately $455 million from at least $375 million.

Distribution revenue guidance was narrowed to $1.735 billion to $1.775 billion. Sinclair said the range reflects the effects of a St. Louis affiliation change and the Charter-Cox merger, while subscriber churn among key multichannel video distributors continues to moderate. Core advertising revenue is expected to be $1.22 billion to $1.25 billion, with the narrower range reflecting political advertising crowd-out in competitive markets, macroeconomic uncertainty and caution among some advertiser categories.

Liquidity and Strategic Review

Sinclair Television Group had $4.0 billion of debt, including its accounts-receivable facility, as of Sept. 30. Consolidated cash and equivalents totaled $659 million, including $170 million at Sinclair Television Group and $489 million at Sinclair Ventures. Total liquidity was approximately $1.4 billion, and the nearest material debt maturity, excluding the accounts-receivable facility, is not until December 2029.

The company retired $25 million of face value of its B7 term loan at a discount in July and repaid and terminated the remainder of its B3 term loan. Sinclair Television Group’s net leverage ratio was 5.1 times, below its covenant limit of 7.0 times.

Sinclair said it is no longer considering a standalone separation of Sinclair Ventures. However, larger broadcast combinations that could include a spin-and-merge transaction remain a priority under its strategic review.

The company identified continued distributor subscriber declines, advertising demand and pricing volatility, programming costs, refinancing needs, regulatory and litigation matters, cybersecurity risks and uncertainty surrounding its strategic review as factors that could cause actual results to differ from its outlook.