Eversource Narrows 2026 EPS Guidance as Q3 Earnings Decline

Eversource Energy (ES) narrowed its 2026 non-GAAP recurring earnings guidance after third-quarter recurring profit declined across each of its utility businesses. The company now expects full-year recurring EPS of $4.62 to $4.70, compared with the $4.52-to-$4.72 range it provided on March 31.

Third-quarter recurring EPS was $0.92, in line with the company’s guidance but down from $1.19 a year earlier. GAAP EPS declined to $0.92 from $0.99, with the prior-year period including $0.20 per share of charges related to offshore wind.

For the first nine months of 2026, recurring EPS was $3.52, compared with $3.64 in the same period of 2025. Reported EPS fell to $2.67 from $3.44, reflecting $0.85 per share of 2026 charges associated with the Aquarion water business sale, offshore wind contingent liabilities and a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission return-on-equity decision.

Utility businesses post lower quarterly earnings

Electric distribution remained the largest contributor in the quarter, but its EPS decreased to $0.53 from $0.60. Electric transmission EPS declined to $0.48 from $0.50, while natural gas distribution recorded a seasonal loss of $0.11 per share, compared with a loss of $0.05 a year earlier.

Water distribution contributed no recurring EPS following the June 30 sale of Aquarion, compared with $0.05 in the prior-year quarter. Parent and other operations generated $0.02 per share, down from $0.09.

The nine-month results were more mixed. Natural gas distribution EPS rose to $0.75 from $0.64, while electric transmission, electric distribution and water distribution each declined. The parent and other category recorded a loss of $0.37 per share, compared with a $0.25 loss a year earlier.

Eversource identified transmission investment, base-rate changes in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire, capital-recovery mechanisms and controlled operating and maintenance expenses as key earnings supports for 2026. Higher depreciation, property taxes, interest expense and the effective tax rate remain headwinds, along with the Aquarion and FERC ROE impacts.

Capital plan and balance-sheet progress

The company plans $26.5 billion of infrastructure investment from 2026 through 2030, an increase of $2.3 billion from its previous five-year forecast. The plan, which excludes Aquarion after the sale, is focused on transmission, electric and natural gas distribution, and information technology and facilities.

Eversource also outlined as much as $1.7 billion of incremental investment opportunities during and beyond the forecast period. These include a potential $1 billion Connecticut advanced-metering infrastructure program and the approved $700 million TIDE transmission project selected through ISO New England’s long-term transmission planning process. About $400 million of TIDE spending is expected between 2027 and 2030, with construction scheduled for 2029 through 2032.

Balance-sheet metrics improved through September. Funds from operations to debt increased to 15.4% from 14.2% under S&P’s framework and to 16.1% from 14.5% under Moody’s framework. Eversource said those levels provided cushions of 340 and 310 basis points, respectively, above downgrade thresholds. The company projects FFO-to-debt ratios at least 100 basis points above both agencies’ thresholds in each year from 2026 through 2030, and said it and its subsidiaries now have stable outlooks at all three rating agencies.

The Aquarion sale generated $1.7 billion of proceeds. Eversource also issued $1.5 billion of junior subordinated notes in August, while issuing approximately $20 million of common shares through its at-the-market program during the first nine months of 2026.

Regulatory proceedings remain a key variable

Eversource’s Connecticut Light & Power unit is seeking to address a $451 million annual revenue deficiency, with system investments accounting for $300 million of the request. The company expects new rates from the proceeding to take effect in July 2027.

At the federal level, Eversource is awaiting a FERC decision on its request for an 11.39% prospective base ROE, with a new rate scheduled to take effect Nov. 30. Separately, the company and other transmission owners are appealing FERC’s March 2026 decision setting a 9.57% base ROE and ordering refunds. The refund due date has been extended to May 2027, though the D.C. Circuit Court denied a request to stay the order and is considering the appeal on an expedited schedule.

Management continues to target long-term EPS growth of 5% to 7%, supported by anticipated regulatory and strategic financing outcomes. Actual results remain subject to regulatory decisions, capital costs and access to financing, project execution, extreme weather, cyber and physical security threats, tax-credit eligibility, and uncertainty over offshore wind costs and post-closing adjustments related to the Revolution Wind and South Fork Wind projects.