Dave Raises 2026 Outlook as Q3 Revenue Climbs 31%

Dave Inc. (DAVE) raised its full-year 2026 guidance after third-quarter revenue increased 31% year over year and adjusted EBITDA rose 39%, supported by member growth, higher monetization and larger ExtraCash advances. The company also reported improving early-stage delinquency metrics even as ExtraCash origination volume expanded.

Dave now expects 2026 revenue of $746 million to $750 million, representing 35% growth, compared with its previous range of $725 million to $735 million and growth of 31% to 33%. The company increased its non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA forecast to $327 million to $330 million from $315 million to $325 million, while adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be $17.45 to $17.65, up from the prior range of $17.00 to $17.50.

At the midpoint, the guidance implies fourth-quarter revenue of $221 million, up 35% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $102 million, equivalent to a 46% margin. Dave does not provide a quantitative reconciliation for its forward-looking non-GAAP measures because it said some reconciling items cannot be predicted without unreasonable effort.

Revenue and member growth

Third-quarter revenue reached $198 million, up from $151 million a year earlier. Dave attributed the increase to an 18% rise in monthly transacting members and an 11% increase in annualized revenue per monthly transacting member, or ARPU. Revenue also grew 16% from the second quarter, reflecting a 6% sequential increase in monthly transacting members and 9% ARPU growth.

Total monthly transacting members increased to 3.15 million, driven by customer acquisition, conversion, retention and reactivation. Dave updated the metric during the quarter to exclude members whose only activity consisted of low-engagement, non-monetized transactions involving Goals accounts; prior periods were recast for comparability.

Total members reached 15.9 million, an 18% year-over-year increase. Dave acquired a record 1.1 million new members during the quarter, up 35%, as marketing spending grew by more than 50%. Customer acquisition cost increased by $3, or 14%, but the company said the increase was outpaced by gains in member lifetime value. The acquisition payback period remained below four months.

Annualized non-GAAP gross profit per monthly transacting member increased by about $19 year over year to $175. Management expects modestly higher marketing investment in the fourth quarter, including continued direct acquisition for Dave Flex.

ExtraCash volume expands as credit metrics improve

ExtraCash origination volume rose 23% to $2.5 billion, reflecting the increase in monthly transacting members and a 5% gain in average advance size. The average ExtraCash amount was $218 for the quarter and reached $225 in September, supported by fee-cap changes and the rollout of the CashAI v6.0 underwriting model.

The 28-day past-due rate improved by six basis points from both the prior year and previous quarter to 2.09%. The September rate was below 2%, and management expects the fourth-quarter rate to remain under that level. Dave said static-pool loss rates were tracking flat to lower year over year and expects sequential improvement in the 121-day loss rate.

The third-quarter delinquency measure remains subject to further development because some receivables had not yet reached 28 days past their due dates. Estimated third-quarter 121-day loss rates are based on the historical relationship between the 28-day past-due rate and fully seasoned losses.

ExtraCash originations resulted in $205 million of net receivables as of September 30, excluding $159 million funded through Coastal, up from $93 million at the end of the second quarter. Coastal’s program capacity increased to $325 million in November. Dave said the funding arrangement improves liquidity and capital efficiency, though the migration also increased funding costs.

Gross profit and operating leverage

Non-GAAP gross profit increased 33% to $138 million. Gross margin was 70%, compared with 69% a year earlier and 72% in the second quarter. The sequential decline primarily reflected about 100 basis points of pressure from Coastal funding and higher seasonal net charge-offs.

Provision expense equaled 1.5% of originations, unchanged from a year earlier but above Dave’s forecast. The company said its previous forecast assumed collections enhancements would produce faster repayments and greater loss-rate improvement than ultimately observed. Dave has recalibrated that forecast, and management expects fourth-quarter gross margin to exceed the second-quarter level.

Fixed expenses declined to 17% of revenue, about 200 basis points lower than a year earlier, as revenue growth, compensation leverage, AI-related productivity gains and other cost reductions offset targeted hiring. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $82 million from $59 million, reflecting revenue and gross-profit growth, return-based marketing spending and fixed-cost discipline.

Dave deployed $20 million during the quarter through restricted-stock-unit net settlements and open-market share repurchases. At quarter-end, $88 million remained under its $300 million authorization.

Dave Flex rollout continues

Dave Card spending increased 5% year over year as the company shifted product investment from debit-card features toward Dave Flex, a pay-in-four card currently in beta. Flex reached tens of thousands of active members during the quarter, and acquisition costs were lower than management expected. Dave also reported significant cross-utilization between Flex and ExtraCash.

The company plans to expand access to Flex through the remainder of 2026 ahead of a broader rollout in 2027. Subscription revenue increased 74% as more monthly transacting members joined at the $3 monthly price point, while subscriptions accounted for 9% of total revenue, up from 7% a year earlier.

Dave’s outlook remains subject to credit performance, customer acquisition and retention, competition, rapid technological and AI developments, and the company’s ability to introduce new products. Other disclosed risks include reliance on two bank partners, evolving financial-services and data-security regulation, the Department of Justice lawsuit against Dave, and macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, tariffs, unemployment and consumer sentiment.