Marqeta Raises 2026 EBITDA Outlook as Q3 TPV Rises 29%

Marqeta (NASDAQ: MQ) raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth outlook to the low-to-mid 30% range after third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached a record $39 million, while reducing its net revenue growth forecast and maintaining gross profit growth guidance. The payments platform reported continued transaction volume expansion, but gross profit growth slowed as it faced several prior-year comparisons and customer-related factors.

Total processing volume rose 29% year over year to $126 billion, marking Marqeta’s first quarter with annualized TPV above $500 billion. Expense Management volume increased in the high-50% range and accelerated for a fifth consecutive quarter, while Lending, including buy now, pay later programs, grew nearly 40%. Non-Block TPV grew more than twice as fast as Block TPV, reflecting greater diversification across the platform.

Third-quarter net revenue increased 8% to $176 million, and gross profit advanced 7% to $122 million. Both measures were at the high end of the company’s expectations. Gross profit growth, however, decelerated by 10 percentage points from the second quarter, primarily because Marqeta was lapping the TransactPay acquisition, a large customer renewal and prior BNPL growth, while also absorbing the effect of Cash App’s new-issuance diversification.

Profitability and expenses

Adjusted EBITDA increased 28% to $39 million, exceeding Marqeta’s expectations. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached a record 22% of net revenue, up three percentage points, while the margin measured against gross profit rose five points to 32%.

Adjusted operating expenses declined 1% to $83 million and remained within the recent quarterly range of $83 million to $84 million. Marqeta attributed the year-over-year comparison partly to the timing of expenses in the prior year and said the result reflected continued operating leverage. Total GAAP operating expenses fell 7% to $116 million.

GAAP net income was $115 million, compared with a net loss of about $4 million a year earlier. The latest result included a $107 million discrete, non-cash income tax benefit tied to the release of valuation allowances on certain deferred tax assets. Marqeta said the release reflected sustained profitability that had exceeded its expectations during the year. Because of the tax item, the company’s 66% net income margin was not representative of its underlying operating profitability.

Platform and customer expansion

Marqeta highlighted several initiatives intended to broaden its end-to-end platform. Its portfolio migration capabilities supported the launch of the Square Credit Card on the American Express network, while an expanded collaboration with Google will power a new Google Wallet offering for children.

The company is also expanding its stablecoin infrastructure ecosystem through a Coinbase partnership and enhancing commercial payments capabilities with straight-through processing integration at the card-network level. The presentation did not quantify the expected financial contribution from these initiatives.

Outlook

For full-year 2026, Marqeta expects both net revenue and gross profit to grow 11% to 12%. The company maintained its gross profit forecast, reduced its net revenue growth outlook and raised expected adjusted EBITDA growth to the low-to-mid 30% range.

For the fourth quarter, management projects net revenue growth of 3% to 5%, gross profit growth of 5% to 7% and adjusted EBITDA growth in the mid-20% range. Marqeta did not provide a GAAP reconciliation for its forward-looking adjusted EBITDA measures, citing the difficulty of reasonably estimating potentially significant reconciling items.

The outlook remains subject to Marqeta’s ability to sustain profitability, increase profitable platform transactions and diversify its customer base. Other identified risks include customer concentration and program changes, competition, regulatory scrutiny of the banking sector, platform outages, relationships with issuing banks and card networks, acquisition integration, international operations and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.