Pfizer Raises 2026 Outlook as Non-COVID Portfolio Supports Q3

Pfizer raised its full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted earnings guidance after third-quarter sales held broadly flat, as growth from non-COVID and acquired products offset declines in Paxlovid, Comirnaty, the Prevnar family and several other medicines.

The drugmaker now expects 2026 revenue of $62.0 billion to $64.0 billion, up from its previous range of $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion. It forecasts adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.95 to $3.05, compared with an earlier projection of $2.80 to $3.00.

Pfizer also increased its expected adjusted research and development spending to between $10.8 billion and $11.8 billion from $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion. Its outlook for adjusted selling, informational and administrative expenses remained at $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion, while the effective tax rate on adjusted income is expected to be about 15%.

Non-COVID portfolio offsets product declines

Third-quarter revenue was $16.6 billion, compared with $16.7 billion a year earlier, representing flat growth on an operational basis. Non-COVID revenue rose 7% operationally, but that increase was more than offset by lower sales of Paxlovid, Comirnaty, the Prevnar family and other products across Pfizer’s portfolio.

Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.87, unchanged in reported terms from the prior-year quarter and down 2% operationally. The decline primarily reflected higher income taxes and R&D expenses, partly offset by lower acquired in-process R&D expenses. GAAP diluted EPS fell 9% to $0.56.

Adjusted cost of sales declined to 23.2% of revenue from 23.9%, mainly because of a more favorable sales mix. That benefit was partially offset by the absence of a favorable revision to accrued royalty estimates recorded in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusted SI&A expenses were $3.2 billion, up 2% operationally. Pfizer attributed the increase mainly to higher compensation costs and a smaller favorable adjustment for U.S. healthcare reform fees, partially offset by lower marketing and promotional spending and continued productivity improvements.

Adjusted R&D expenses increased 18% operationally to $2.9 billion. The company said the rise primarily reflected planned spending on certain oncology and obesity candidates, as well as higher compensation expenses.

Acquired products and pipeline investment

Products obtained through acquisitions generated 37% operational revenue growth in the quarter. U.S. revenue from Seagen products increased 39% year over year, while Nurtec revenue rose 33% operationally. Pfizer said its launched and acquired products collectively recorded 32% operational growth.

The company is investing in those newer products and its late-stage pipeline as it prepares for upcoming losses of exclusivity. Among the highlighted clinical developments, Pfizer reported positive Phase 3 results for Elrexfio in post-CD38, double-class-exposed multiple myeloma and plans to submit the data to global health authorities.

Pfizer also presented Phase 2 findings for atirmociclib in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, tivunatamig in first-line non-small cell lung cancer and tilrekimig in atopic dermatitis. The company cautioned that some comparisons involving these candidates were across separate trials rather than head-to-head studies, limiting the conclusions that can be drawn.

In obesity, Pfizer said 10 pivotal studies of berobenatide were advancing during 2026. The VESPER-6 study was about 50% enrolled, while SOLIS-1 was fully enrolled. Across its broader pipeline, the company reported 16 key Phase 3 study starts, seven key data readouts and five key regulatory approvals among its selected 2026 accomplishments to date, including certain milestones achieved in late 2025.

Capital allocation and outlook risks

Through the first nine months of 2026, Pfizer allocated $9.2 billion to internal and external R&D and returned $7.3 billion to shareholders. It completed no share repurchases, and its current guidance assumes none for the full year. The company said it intends to maintain its dividend while balancing pipeline investment and debt reduction. Gross leverage stood at about 2.7 times, with management expecting it to remain near current levels or modestly higher during the loss-of-exclusivity transition.

The updated outlook includes an anticipated revenue impact of approximately $1.1 billion from recent and expected generic and biosimilar competition. Pfizer also identified clinical, regulatory and commercial execution, product demand and supply, pricing and reimbursement policy, tariffs, geopolitical instability, foreign-exchange movements and changes in U.S. healthcare and vaccine policy among the uncertainties that could affect its expectations.