Grab Raises 2026 Outlook as Q3 Adjusted EBITDA Jumps 73%

Grab Holdings raised its full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook after third-quarter revenue increased 27% and adjusted EBITDA rose 73%, supported by growth across its on-demand businesses and the Financial Services segment’s first positive quarterly adjusted EBITDA.

The Southeast Asian technology company now expects 2026 revenue of $4.15 billion to $4.20 billion, representing growth of 23% to 25%. Its previous range was $4.10 billion to $4.15 billion, or growth of 22% to 23%. Grab also increased its non-IFRS adjusted EBITDA forecast to $790 million to $800 million from $720 million to $740 million.

Revenue and platform activity expand

Third-quarter revenue reached $1.11 billion, up from $873 million a year earlier. Growth was 30% on a constant-currency basis. Operating profit increased to $108 million from $27 million, while profit for the period edged up 5% to $18 million.

Adjusted EBITDA rose to $237 million from $136 million, lifting the adjusted EBITDA margin to 21.3% from 15.6%. Total segment adjusted EBITDA, which excludes regional corporate costs, increased 46% to $338 million. Regional corporate costs rose to $101 million from $95 million.

On-demand gross merchandise value, comprising Mobility and Deliveries, increased 18% to $6.84 billion, or 22% at constant currency. Monthly transacting users grew 20% to 57.2 million, while on-demand GMV per user increased 2% to $135.

Grab generated $55 million of net cash from operating activities, compared with an outflow of $127 million a year earlier. Adjusted free cash flow increased 41% to $286 million and totaled $533 million on a trailing-12-month basis. The company reported net cash liquidity of $5.04 billion as of Sept. 30, down from $5.29 billion a year earlier.

Deliveries leads on-demand growth

Deliveries revenue increased 21% to $561 million, while segment GMV grew 21% to $4.50 billion. At constant currency, revenue and GMV rose 22% and 24%, respectively. Deliveries segment adjusted EBITDA climbed 58% to $123 million, equivalent to 2.7% of GMV compared with 2.1% a year earlier.

Mobility revenue rose 10% to $349 million, with GMV up 14% to $2.34 billion. Constant-currency growth was 12% for revenue and 17% for GMV. Mobility segment adjusted EBITDA advanced 15% to $207 million, and its margin remained at 8.9% of GMV.

Incentive spending also increased. Total partner and consumer incentives reached $737.1 million, up from $584.5 million. On-demand incentives represented 10.7% of GMV, compared with 10.0% in the prior-year quarter. The ratio increased in both Deliveries and Mobility.

Financial Services turns profitable on an adjusted basis

Financial Services revenue more than doubled to $201 million from $90 million, representing growth of 124%, or 132% at constant currency. The segment recorded adjusted EBITDA of $12 million, improving by $40 million from a $28 million loss a year earlier.

The gross loan portfolio tripled to $2.71 billion from $903 million. Excluding Superbank, the portfolio grew 115%. Non-performing loans at least 90 days past due represented 2.6% of the portfolio, within the 2% to 3% range reported since 2025. Expected credit loss reserves stood at 6.5% of the portfolio, or 2.4 times non-performing loans.

Grab is targeting Financial Services segment adjusted EBITDA of $500 million in 2028 and a gross loan portfolio of more than $6 billion by the end of that year. Those targets include contributions from Atome, whose proposed acquisition remains subject to closing, expected in the third quarter of 2027. Management identified deeper consumer-lending penetration, lower expected-credit-loss provisions and operating leverage as key drivers of the target.

The company also highlighted investment in artificial intelligence across its platform. AI interactions increased 60% sequentially while the cost per interaction declined by more than 40%. Grab said drivers using its AI assistant earned 10% more per online hour, while participating merchants using its merchant assistant recorded 20% higher revenue growth. These comparisons apply to the user groups specified in the presentation and do not necessarily represent platform-wide outcomes.

Grab said it remains on track to complete about $1.75 billion of share repurchases announced since 2024, representing more than 10% of outstanding shares upon completion.

The company cautioned that its outlook and longer-term targets are subject to macroeconomic, competitive, regulatory and execution risks, including currency fluctuations, inflation, credit quality, the ability to attract partners and consumers, and the proposed Atome transaction’s completion. Grab’s adjusted EBITDA, segment adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow and liquidity measures are non-IFRS metrics and may not be comparable with similarly named measures reported by other companies.