US Dollar Index: Downside bias within defined range – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that the USD Index bias has shifted to the downside after failing to break above the weekly Ichimoku cloud and instead plunging below the 55-week EMA. However, flat EMAs suggest any decline should be contained within the 97.63/101.64 range, with key levels marked by May’s low and last week’s high.

Downside bias but range-bound outlook

"Bias for USD index is tilted to the downside; any decline should stay contained within a range of 97.63/101.64."

"In our previous Chart of the Day update from 03 July 2026, when the USD index was at 101.39, we highlighted that “a break above the weekly Ichimoku cloud, then at 103.20, would complete the technical setup and could open the way for further upside in coming months.” We also highlighted that “a breach of 99.55/60, where the EMAs currently reside, would nullify the positive setup.”"

"USD index did not break above the weekly Ichimoku cloud. Instead, in a sudden move last week, it plunged and breached the 55 - week EMA. The positive setup has been nullified."

"While the sharp drop has tilted the bias toward the downside, flat EMAs suggest any decline should stay contained within a range of 97.63/101.64."

"May’s low and the base of the weekly Ichimoku cloud are near 97.63, while last week’s high and the top of the weekly cloud are both at 101.64."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)