USD: Safe‑haven bid on Middle East tensions and strong data – Societe Generale

FXStreetMar 5, 2026 11:31 AM

View all comments（0）



Societe Generale analysts say macro data have been overshadowed by Middle East (ME) risks, with investors likely to seek safety in Dollar and Swiss Franc into the weekend absent de‑escalation. Strong US labour indicators skew risks toward another solid NFP, while energy prices are seen as the main drivers of FX and bond price action.

Safe‑haven flows and NFP risk dominate

"Macro data has been marginalised for obvious reasons so far this week and assuming there is no off-ramp and de-escalation by tomorrow in the ME one must assume that the fall-back position of investors will be to opt for safety of the dollar and Swissie into the weekend, hedging against a ratcheting up of the conflict and energy price levels."

"Four out of four US labour market anecdotes surprised to the upside and skew the risk to another solid NFP print tomorrow. The whisper number is up to 65k after solid ADP, two ISM employment data points and lower weekly jobless claims."

"Under the current circumstances, it’s a stretch to conclude that good data is reassuring and therefore bullish for risk assets and currencies (bearish dollar). The front-end of the curve has been repriced because of oil and nat gas, but could bonds get spooked tomorrow by NFP and fewer Fed cuts?"

"We assume that a 30k-70k employment gain should not move the dial and it’s where oil and natural gas prices close the week that we think will govern the price action."

"The 2.5 SD deviation of NFP vs consensus last month was uniformly positive for USD/G10 and USD/EM."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

S&P 500 Index Forecast: Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Other Companies Continue Increasing AI Investment, May Support Index Surpassing 8,000 in Second Half of 2026

TradingKey - The S&P 500 index has recently experienced volatility at high levels. As of the U.S. market close on July 16, the S&P 500 index stood at 7,533.77 points, falling 0.51% on the day. Despite the short-term pullback, technical indicators suggest the medium-to-long-term bullish trend remains intact, and institutions continue to hold a positive outlook for the future of the S&P 500.

Apple Hits Record High, Market Cap Surges to $4.9 Trillion: Why Full-Year Gains Lead the Mag 7?

TradingKey - Against the backdrop of a general pullback in the AI sector, Apple (AAPL) has staged an independent rally, driven by its unique ecosystem moat and robust financial performance. After reaching an all-time high of $323.45 on July 13, the share price hit another record high of $327.5 on July 15. Its market capitalization currently stands at $4.81 trillion, making it the second-largest company in the U.S. by market value as it approaches the epic $5 trillion milestone, trailing only Nvidia (NVDA) at $5.13 trillion. In fact, Apple's year-to-date gain in 2026 has reached 16%, also leading the "Mag 7."

SpaceX Negotiates Multi-Billion Dollar Computing Power Deal With Pentagon: Stock Price Drop Does Not Change Wall Street’s Bullish Expectations

Tradingkey - The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX (SPCX) is in negotiations with the U.S. Department of Defense to sell computing power. The deal could be valued at billions of dollars, and if finalized, would mark the latest major infrastructure contract for Elon Musk’s integrated rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence conglomerate. The report noted that the partnership model for this deal is similar to previous agreements SpaceX reached with Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) and AI firm Anthropic. The negotiations come as the U.S. military seeks to construct data centers within its military bases to bolster its autonomous computing capabilities.

US-Iran Conflict Escalates, International Oil Prices Surge Over 3%: WTI Crude Breaks $81, Strait of Hormuz Shipping Blocked

Tradingkey - On July 17 (ET), as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate, the two major crude oil futures rose again, returning to price levels seen in mid-June. As of press time, WTI crude futures rose over 3% to $81.05, while Brent crude futures also gained more than 3% to $87.01. The confrontation between the two sides has intensified as the fragile ceasefire agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran last month shows further signs of breaking down.

Micron Stock Price Prediction: MU Breaks $898 Support as Memory Boom Faces Capacity Risk

Micron posted record fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion and guided for $50 billion in Q4 sales, but MU has broken below $897.80 support as investors assess capacity growth and peak memory margins.

Featured Tools