GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tests Symmetrical Triangle breakdown near 1.3580

FXStreetFeb 18, 2026 11:10 AM

GBP/USD trades broadly calm to near 1.3570 after the release of the UK CPI data for January.
The UK’s headline and core CPI grew moderately by 3% and 3.1% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively.
The US Dollar gains ahead of the FOMC Minutes release.

The GBP/USD pair trades flat at around 1.3570 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair flattens while the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January.

However, the outlook of the British currency has become uncertain as the data has shown that inflationary pressures have cooled down at an expected pace. The UK’s headline inflation has come in lower at 3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.4% in December. In the same period, the core CPI growth cooled down to 3.1%.

Soft UK CPI data is expected to strengthen market speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in its monetary policy meeting in March.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January policy meeting at 19:00 GMT.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 97.30.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades almost flat at around 1.3570 as of writing. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes lower and stands at 1.3591, keeping the near-term bias pressured.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44 sits below the 50 midline, pointing to subdued momentum despite a tentative uptick.

Overall, the outlook of the pair appears bearish as it struggles to return above the lower border of the Symmetrical Triangle post the breakdown. Looking down, Cable could extend its decline towards the January 22 low around 1.3400 if it breaks below Tuesday's low of 1.3500.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Last release: Wed Feb 18, 2026 07:00

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: 3%

Consensus: 3%

Previous: 3.4%

Source: Office for National Statistics

Why it matters to traders?

The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

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