EUR: Inflation pickup to keep doves quiet – ING

FXStreetOct 2, 2025 8:56 AM

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Eurozone inflation accelerated yesterday, with headline CPI hitting 2.2% while core stayed at 2.3% for the fifth consecutive month, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Risks remain tilted to the upside for EUR/USD

"The figures were fully in line with market expectations and largely driven by energy prices. That said, data is vindicating the ECB’s cautious stance, and could keep dovish voices in the governing council quiet. A quick scan of recent ECB member comments shows little to no dissent anyway."

"Yesterday’s price action in EUR/USD suggests the rally is looking a bit tired without any substantial catalysts at the moment. As discussed above, the yen is a preferred channel to EUR for US shutdown risks, and the technical picture isn’t as supportive for the common currency in the near term."

"Risks remain tilted to the upside for EUR/USD, given that downside risks are more concentrated on the US side, but a break above 1.180 may require new data inputs."

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