US Treasuries: Bear flattening as markets price more hikes – TD Securities

FXStreetNov 11, 2026 8:35 AM

View all comments（0）



TD Securities reports that US Treasuries bear flattened sharply after stronger US CPI and hawkish comments from Governor Waller led markets to price in additional Fed tightening. Front-end yields moved higher, breakevens widened, and the bank warns that highly negative BE carry in early 2027 could become a headwind for the inflation-linked asset class.

Front-end repricing and BE carry headwinds

"Rates: Treasuries bear flattened sharply as the market penciled in more rate hikes."

"Markets leaned into Governor Waller's comments from earlier in the session around potentially needing a "catch up" 50bp hike, bringing pricing for hikes in December higher from 25bp to around 28bp and increasing pricing for hikes in 2027 to 45bp from 34bp."

"This pressured the front-end sharply higher, flattening the curve and moving BEs wider."

"Markets will be waiting on further Fedspeak to confirm whether other FOMC members agree with Waller before pushing December pricing higher."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

Gold Extends Slide Below $4,000 as Rising US Inflation, Fed December Hike Bets Pressure Prices

TradingKey - On November 12, gold prices (XAUUSD) extended their recent decline, falling further below $4,000 in early Asian trading and touching an intraday low near $3,968. Earlier, higher-than-expected U.S. October CPI data, combined with hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, significantly fueled market expectations for a December rate hike, with a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields placing further pressure on gold prices.

Kospi Edges Up 0.43%, Samsung Electronics Gains 1.7% as Kioxia and SoftBank Fall 2%

Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened with turnover at high levels, with the KOSPI edging up 0.43%, Samsung jumping 1.7%, and the Nikkei holding firm at 61,000.

Nasdaq Extends Gains by 1.6%, SOX Surges Over 5%; Tech Stocks Lead Market as CoreWeave Soars Over 25% Post-Earnings

On Wednesday, November 11, Eastern Time, U.S. stocks moved higher. CoreWeave's earnings report and raised full-year guidance boosted AI-related stocks, Nvidia rebounded after two consecutive sessions of declines, and subscription demand for Anthropic's IPO also provided support to market sentiment. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to 52,486.49; the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.60% to 25,466.19; and the S&P 500 Index climbed 1.31% to 7,619.38.

Memory Stocks Surge, Micron Jumps 11% as Morgan Stanley Says Valuation Pullback Improves Memory Stocks' Risk-Reward

On November 11, Eastern Time, memory stocks surged, with SanDisk (SNDK) rising 13.95%, Micron Technology (MU) gaining 11.03%, Seagate Technology (STX) climbing 9.94%, SK Hynix (SKHY) advancing 9.40%, and Western Digital (WDC) up 7.50%. Following a month-long pullback, Morgan Stanley noted a clear divergence between supply chain orders and capital market sentiment, stating that the valuation decline has improved the risk-reward profile for memory stocks, with a particular focus on Micron Technology and SanDisk.

【US Pre-Market】CoreWeave Jumps Over 16% on Plans to Issue Billions in GPU-Backed Debt; Nvidia Rebounds Over 4%, AMD, Micron Rise Over 6%

TradingKey - On November 11, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose across the board, with Nasdaq 100 futures leading the gains.

Featured Tools