Polish Zloty: NBP seen on extended hold – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, with a status quo stance likely through the second half of 2026 and early 2027. Inflation is currently within target, while growth has improved. Money markets, however, are pricing in around 75 basis points of tightening over the next year.

Stable policy against modest tightening pricing

"In Poland, we expect the NBP to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% today. Our base case is for status quo throughout 2H and early 2027."

"Inflation is within the bank’s target range of 1.5%-3.5%. Headline CPI is running at 3.1% yoy and core at 3.0% in May. 1Q GDP expanded by 0.6% qoq and 3.5% yoy."

"Finance minister Domanski welcomed the friendlier inflation data and the upward revision to growth, praising the domestic economic resilience."

"Money markets are pricing in about 75bp of tightening by the NBP in twelve months compared to 71bp of easing in Hungary."

"The question now is whether the HUF and local bonds can outperform the PLN deep into 2H?"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)