USD/CNH: Consolidation with Oil and risk in focus – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/CNH is consolidating near recent lows with fading bullish momentum, as fears of persistently high Oil prices and Iran-related risks weigh on broader sentiment despite the IEA’s reserve release. Stronger CNY fix offers some support, but broader risk tone and Dollar direction remain key, with support around 6.85–6.8270 and resistance at 6.89 and 6.9280.

RMB steadier than Oil-sensitive Asian peers

"USD/CNH consolidated near recent lows, with the decline lacking momentum overnight. Fears of oil price staying high for longer, alongside USD following threat from Iran had undermined broader sentiment despite IEA’s plan to release record 400mn barrels of oil from reserves."

"Broader risk sentiment, USD direction still matters and, in the interim, geopolitical headline dominates and drives 2-way trades. That said, on relative terms, RMB may be less vulnerable while Asian FX, including KRW, PHP sensitive to oil and sentiment shocks may be under more pressure."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading but decline in RSI moderated. 2-way trades likely. Support at 6.85, 6.86 levels, 6.8270 levels (Feb low). Resistance at 6.89 (21 DMA), 6.9280 (50 DMA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)