Norway: Oil investment outlook beats Norges Bank projections – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team highlights Norway’s Q1 oil investment survey, which points to higher-than-expected nominal spending in 2026 and 2027. After adjusting for cost inflation, investment volumes appear stronger than Norges Bank’s December projections. The team also notes Norges Bank’s plan to publish MPC discussion summaries, which could improve market guidance and reduce meeting-day volatility.

Upbeat capex survey and more NB transparency

"In Norway, the Q1 oil investment survey revealed that oil companies expect to invest NOK 255.3 billion in 2026 and NOK 201.1 billion in 2027, indicating nominal growth of 0.6% and 2.0%, respectively."

"Adjusting for cost inflation, the figures suggest slightly stronger growth than Norges Bank's December MPR volume estimate for 2026 at -3%, and significantly stronger for 2027 at -6%."

"As expected, there was no new monetary signals in NB governor Wolden Bache's annual address last night."

"The most interesting point short term is that Norges Bank is getting more transparent: 'In the course of this year, we will begin to publish a summary of the Committee's discussions.'"

"This could improve market guiding and avoid some of the volatility occasionally seen on the day of the MPC-meeting the last couple of years"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)