Oil: High prices seen easing only gradually – Commerzbank

FXStreetOct 19, 2026 11:33 AM

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Commerzbank’s research team highlights that Brent and WTI have rallied on renewed Middle East and Russian supply risks, with Brent near USD110 and Oil up strongly year-to-date. Despite some recovery in Middle East exports via “dark transits”, the bank expects fossil fuel prices to decline only gradually, implying Euro area inflation will ease slowly from spring.

Supply risks keep crude elevated

"Brent crude surged to just under USD110 per barrel amid renewed supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia, adding to inflation concerns and complicating the Fed's monetary policy outlook."

"Brent crude oil prices rose 3.7% to just under USD110 last Friday, marking its second consecutive weekly gain, up 4.9%."

"The rally in oil reflected renewed concerns over supply disruptions amid continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and further strikes on Russian energy infrastructure."

"Oil exports from the Middle East have recovered significantly, thanks in part to the “dark transits” of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz that we had anticipated. Nevertheless, prices for fossil fuels such as crude oil, diesel and natural gas remain high. We analyze the reasons for this and outline our forecast for prices to decline gradually."

"As a result, inflation in the euro area is also likely to begin falling only slowly in the spring."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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