Oil: Diverging market paths under geopolitical camps – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights that Brent has turned lower as OPEC+ eases production cuts and tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume, but stresses that shipping risks remain crucial for Oil prices. Picton argues that Iran’s planned “service fees” and differentiated terms for China and allies could split the Oil market into separate geopolitical pricing blocs.

Oil flows, fees and market fragmentation

"Brent crude posted its first weekly gain in almost a month last week to see the front contract close up 0.18% at $72.12/bbl. The gains appear to have been short-lived as news of continued tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a decision by OPEC+ over the weekend to ease production restrictions by 188,000 barrels/day from August steer the price action lower this morning."

"Announcements of increased production are all well and good, but when much of that production is occurring in the Persian Gulf or in Russia (where Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure are ongoing) the ability to actually ship the product to market will remain the critical limiting factor."

"On the other hand, Iran again indicated over the weekend that it will be instituting “service fees” on vessels transiting Hormuz through its territorial waters once the 60-day negotiating period kicked-off by the signing of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding expires."

"Critically, what this little titbit sets up is exactly the type of scenario we have been pointing towards for some time: the ‘oil market’ splitting into ‘oil markets’ with terms over pricing and access being determined by which geopolitical camp you happen to sit in, and a series of quid pro quos informing the deal that each party gets."

"The prime movers here are the United States and China, with Iran having clearly chosen China and the UAE hitching its wagon to the US of A."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)