US Weighs Military Intervention in Israel-Iran Conflict? Trump Delays Decision for 2 Weeks, Potential Oil Price Surge Anticipated

TradingKey - On Thursday, 19th, the White House announced that President Trump would decide within two weeks whether to launch an attack on Iran. This follows Trump's indication of potential participation in Israel's airstrike operations, which has heightened investor concerns over the US becoming embroiled in the Israel-Iran conflict.

Furthermore, the White House noted that Trump prefers to pursue diplomatic efforts first. Foreign ministers from the UK, France, and Germany are set to meet with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Geneva on the 20th to discuss Iran's nuclear program. If this meeting occurs, it will be the first face-to-face engagement between Western nations and Iran since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict on the 13th.

The delay in the White House's military action decision has eased market concerns, with Brent crude futures dropping to around $77 per barrel. However, the upward trend persists, marking the third consecutive week of increases. 

Analysts highlight that geopolitical uncertainty will continue to bolster bullish sentiment in the oil market before Trump's final decision in the coming weeks.

Previously, there were reports of abnormal navigation signals in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian officials stating on the 14th local time that they were “seriously considering” blocking the strait. 

Citibank has suggested that if the conflict escalates and disrupts Iran's daily oil exports of 1.1 million barrels, Brent crude prices could rise approximately 15% to 20% above pre-conflict levels, potentially soaring to $120 to $130 per barrel in extreme scenarios.