Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) Stock Analysis

The TradingKey Stock Score provides a comprehensive assessment of Ultrapar Participacoes SA based on 34 indicators derived from over 100 underlying data points.
These indicators are categorised into six key dimensions: financial health, company profile, earnings forecasts, price momentum, institutional confidence, and risk assessment, collectively providing investors with a thorough analysis of Ultrapar Participacoes SA’s performance and outlook.

To generate the financial health score of Ultrapar Participacoes SA, we analyse various key financial indicators across several core dimensions, including financial fundamentals, earnings quality, operational efficiency, growth potential, and shareholder returns.
By integrating these comprehensive data, the financial health score not only reflects Ultrapar Participacoes SA's overall stability, operational efficiency, and growth potential but also captures the investment returns delivered to shareholders. This score aims to support rational decision-making for investors and other stakeholders. A higher score indicates a better financial health of Ultrapar Participacoes SA.

To generate the company valuation score of Ultrapar Participacoes SA, we use several key financial ratios, including P/E, P/B, P/S, and P/CF. These metrics compare Ultrapar Participacoes SA’s market value to its earnings, assets, sales, and cash flow, serving as core indicators for assessing company value.
By analysing these ratios in an all-round manner, the valuation score reflects not only the market’s current perception of Ultrapar Participacoes SA’s value but also its future profitability and growth potential, thereby supporting more informed investment decisions. A higher score indicates a fairer valuation of Ultrapar Participacoes SA.

To calculate the earnings forecast score of Ultrapar Participacoes SA, we consider various key indicators such as analyst ratings, financial forecasts, support and resistance levels, and peer comparisons:
Current ratings and price targets directly reflect analysts’ expectations, while the upside space indicates their views on the stock’s growth potential.
Financial metrics like earnings per share (EPS), revenue, net income, and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are core measures for assessing profitability.
By analysing the high, median, and low ranges of the target price, we can identify price trends and determine key support and resistance levels.
Comparing these indicators against peers provides context for the stock’s performance and helps anchor more realistic expectations.
These factors together form a comprehensive earnings forecast score that accurately reflects the stock’s expected financial performance and growth potential. A higher score suggests that analysts have a more optimistic outlook on Ultrapar Participacoes SA’s future.

When generating the price momentum score for Ultrapar Participacoes SA, we examine momentum indicators including support and resistance levels as well as volume metrics.
Support levels represent price points where buying interest is strong enough to prevent further declines, while resistance levels indicate prices where selling pressure may hinder upward movement. By analysing typical price volume alongside total volume, we assess overall market activity and liquidity. These indicators help identify price trends and potential shifts, enabling more accurate predictions of future earnings.
This comprehensive approach can reflect market sentiment and enable rational forecasts of Ultrapar Participacoes SA’s prices. A higher score indicates a more stable short-term price trend for Ultrapar Participacoes SA.

To generate the institutional confidence score of Ultrapar Participacoes SA, we analyse both the proportion of shares held by institutions and the number of shares they own. A higher institutional ownership percentage indicates strong confidence of professional investors, which is generally a positive signal about Ultrapar Participacoes SA’s potential. By examining the number of shares held, we gain deeper insight into institutions’ commitment and attitude toward the stock, as institutional investors typically conduct thorough analysis before making investment decisions. Understanding institutional confidence helps us refine earnings forecasts and provides a more reliable perspective on the company’s future performance and market stability. A higher score indicates greater institutional endorsement of Ultrapar Participacoes SA.

To assess the risk management score of Ultrapar Participacoes SA, we examine multiple key indicators related to returns, risk, volatility, and liquidity.
The highest and lowest daily returns reflect the potential size of gains and losses, while the Sharpe ratio measures risk-adjusted return performance. On the risk side, we analyse maximum drawdown and the return-to-drawdown ratio to identify extreme loss scenarios. Skewness helps assess the distribution of returns and whether performance may be biased. Volatility indicators—such as realised volatility and standardised true range—reveal price fluctuations. Downside risk-adjusted returns provide insight into potential losses and gains. Lastly, liquidity metrics like average turnover rate and turnover deviation indicate how actively the stock is traded.
These indicators together provide a multi-dimensional understanding of Ultrapar Participacoes SA’s risk-return profile, serving as core factors of the risk management score. A higher score indicates lower risk on the side of Ultrapar Participacoes SA.