Conferencia de resultados del T3 de 2026 de SouthState (SSB): el NIM se mantiene en el 3,78 % a medida que los préstamos y depósitos crecen un 9 %

Conclusiones clave

• SouthState Bank Corporation registró un crecimiento anualizado del 9% tanto en préstamos como en depósitos. Los préstamos comerciales e industriales lideraron el crecimiento, aumentando un 12% durante el trimestre, mientras que la dirección señaló posteriormente un crecimiento interanual del 13% en préstamos comerciales e industriales.
• El margen de interés neto se mantuvo sin cambios respecto al segundo trimestre en el 3,78%, dentro del rango de previsión de la empresa del 3,75%-3,80%. Excluyendo los ingresos por acrecimiento, el NIM aumentó 4 puntos básicos hasta el 3,61%.
• Las métricas de crédito se mantuvieron estables. Las pérdidas netas por insolvencias fueron de 9 puntos básicos, marcando el noveno trimestre de los últimos 10 por debajo de los 10 puntos básicos. La provisión de 20 millones de dólares estuvo impulsada principalmente por el crecimiento de los préstamos.
• Los ingresos distintos de intereses cayeron 3 millones de dólares en términos intertrimestrales hasta los 94 millones de dólares, ya que los mayores tipos del Tesoro redujeron la actividad de los mercados de capitales. Los ingresos de mercados de capitales corresponsales disminuyeron a 20,1 millones de dólares desde aproximadamente 25 millones de dólares.
• La dirección prevé un NIM del 3,75%-3,85% hasta 2027 bajo sus hipótesis actuales de tipos de interés y balance. También mantuvo su perspectiva de crecimiento de los préstamos en el rango entre medio y alto de un solo dígito para 2027.
• El ratio CET1 cerró el trimestre en el 11,1%. SouthState recompra 250.000 acciones durante el T3 y 2,75 millones de acciones en lo que va de año, pero la dirección prevé que la tasa de reparto total de 2027 se sitúe cerca del extremo inferior de su rango a largo plazo del 40%-60%.

Datos financieros clave

El beneficio neto antes de provisiones por acción, excluyendo los ingresos por acrecimiento y la amortización de intangibles de depósitos centrales, aumentó un 10,5% desde el T3 de 2025. Durante los primeros nueve meses de 2026, la misma métrica aumentó un 13,9% hasta los 9,10 dólares por acción.

Rendimiento operativo y del negocio

SouthState generó casi 5.000 millones de dólares en préstamos durante el trimestre, un 45% más que un año antes. La dirección atribuyó parte de ese aumento a la expansión de su equipo de gestores de relaciones comerciales. El banco incrementó un 10% la plantilla de gestores comerciales durante el último año, y esas contrataciones han originado aproximadamente 1.000 millones de dólares en nuevos préstamos.

La contratación fue más fuerte en Texas, donde la fuerza de ventas de gestión de relaciones aumentó un 22% interanual. Carolina del Norte subió un 19%, Atlanta aumentó un 16% y la fuerza de ventas general de la compañía se expandió un 13%.

La cartera de préstamos también se ha vuelto más sensible a los tipos de interés. Los préstamos a tipo variable pasaron del 28% de la cartera combinada cuando se anunció la transacción de Independent Financial en 2024 al 39% actual. Aproximadamente entre el 55% y el 60% de las originaciones recientes de préstamos han sido a tipo variable.

El crecimiento de los depósitos estuvo impulsado por nuevas relaciones de gestión de tesorería. El banco abrió más de 700 millones de dólares en cuentas de gestión de tesorería para nuevos clientes durante el trimestre, aunque aproximadamente 500 millones de dólares en pagos trimestrales de impuestos y una disminución de 250 millones de dólares en fondos públicos compensaron parte de esa actividad. La dirección indicó que el nuevo dinero acumulado de clientes entró a un coste de aproximadamente el 2,95% en el T3.

La actividad de los mercados de capitales se debilitó debido a que el rendimiento del bono del Tesoro a cinco años subió 87 puntos básicos durante el trimestre, incluidos 60 puntos básicos en septiembre. Los ingresos de mercados de capitales corresponsales disminuyeron a 20,1 millones de dólares desde 24,8 millones en el periodo anterior. La dirección prevé que la actividad de renta fija compense en parte la menor actividad en swaps de tipos de interés a medida que los clientes respondan al empinamiento de la curva de tipos.

Previsiones de la dirección

La dirección prevé que los gastos no financieros del T4 se aproximen o superen ligeramente el nivel de 375 millones de dólares del T3. El crecimiento de los gastos para todo el año 2026 debería mantenerse cerca de la tasa del 4% comunicada anteriormente, a pesar de una contratación de generadores de ingresos superior a la esperada. La empresa estimó un crecimiento de los gastos no financieros para 2027 del 3,5%-4%, sujeto a actualizaciones presupuestarias, comisiones y actividad de selección de personal.

SouthState elevó su rango de NIM modelado al 3,75%-3,85% hasta 2027. Las hipótesis incluyen dos subidas de tipos de la Reserva Federal en total, incluida la subida de septiembre y un movimiento adicional en diciembre, un rendimiento del Tesoro a cinco años cerca del 5% y una beta de depósitos total de aproximadamente el 50% en los saldos existentes y nuevos.

Las perspectivas del margen también reflejan la repreciación de activos a tipo fijo. Se prevé que aproximadamente 1.000 millones de dólares por trimestre en préstamos preexistentes a tipo fijo reajusten su tipo de interés durante los próximos cinco trimestres, estimando la dirección un incremento de unos 150 puntos básicos si los tipos de mercado se mantienen estables en líneas generales. Más de 1.000 millones de dólares en títulos que vencen en el mismo periodo podrían reajustarse unos 200 puntos básicos al alza.

La dirección prevé que el crecimiento de los préstamos se ralentice al rango medio de un solo dígito en el T4 tras un aumento del 9,5% en lo que va de año, dejando el crecimiento de todo el año 2026 en el rango alto de un solo dígito. Las perspectivas preliminares de la empresa para 2027 se mantienen en un crecimiento de los préstamos entre medio y alto de un solo dígito.

Se espera que los ingresos de mercados de capitales corresponsales se mantengan cerca del nivel del T3 durante el próximo trimestre o dos antes de volver a aproximarse a los 25 millones de dólares a medida que los tipos se estabilicen. Los ingresos por comisiones como porcentaje de los activos podrían mantenerse cerca del extremo inferior del rango de 55 a 60 puntos básicos durante ese periodo.

SouthState también está desarrollando plataformas de divisas y materias primas. La dirección prevé que la oferta de materias primas se lance de forma más amplia en el primer trimestre y la plataforma de divisas en torno al 1 de abril. Una vez plenamente implantados, ambos productos podrían aportar en conjunto entre 10 y 15 millones de dólares en ingresos anualizados durante el primer año, según la dirección.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

• La cartera de préstamos en tramitación disminuyó aproximadamente un 14% desde su pico anterior y volvió a situarse en unos 5.000 millones de dólares debido a que el aumento de los tipos redujo la actividad. La dirección señaló que la demanda de préstamos comerciales e industriales se mantuvo sólida, mientras que la actividad inmobiliaria comercial se debilitó.
• Las mayores rentabilidades del Tesoro están presionando los ingresos de los mercados de capitales corresponsales, particularmente los swaps de tipos de interés, aun cuando respaldan el margen de interés neto y la repreciación de activos fijos.
• Se prevé que los costes de los depósitos sigan subiendo tras las alzas de tipos. La dirección indicó que el coste de los depósitos podría acercarse al 2% a finales del T1 si se cumplen sus hipótesis sobre los tipos.
• Los movimientos rápidos en la curva de tipos pueden comprimir los diferenciales de los préstamos debido a que los compromisos a tipo fijo pueden permanecer pendientes durante unos 45 días antes del cierre.
• Actualmente la dirección no observa un deterioro crediticio significativo en el sector inmobiliario comercial. Sin embargo, reconoció que un aumento sustancial adicional en los rendimientos del Tesoro a largo plazo podría generar presión. Los préstamos de inmobiliario comercial originados en 2021 y 2022 tienen ratios préstamo-valor medios ponderados cercanos al 55%.
• La previsión de gastos sigue siendo sensible a las comisiones, los costes diferidos de los préstamos y el ritmo de contratación de generadores de ingresos.

Puntos destacados del turno de preguntas de analistas

Crecimiento del balance y durabilidad del margen: La dirección señaló que la sensibilidad a los tipos de los activos, una mayor proporción de préstamos a tipo variable y la repreciación de activos a tipo fijo deberían respaldar el rango de NIM del 3,75%-3,85% hasta 2027 mientras los préstamos continúan creciendo a un ritmo de entre medio y alto de un solo dígito.

Asignación de capital: Las prioridades de SouthState siguen siendo el crecimiento del dividendo, la expansión orgánica del balance, la recompra de acciones y, posteriormente, las operaciones de M&A. Tras recomprar aproximadamente el 5% de las acciones en circulación durante el último año, la dirección prevé que la tasa de reparto de 2027 se sitúe cerca del extremo inferior de su rango a largo plazo del 40%-60%. Las operaciones de M&A siguen siendo la prioridad de asignación de capital más baja.

Condiciones crediticias: La tendencia de los activos clasificados y dudosos se describió como entre estable y en mejora. Actualmente la dirección no prevé un cambio significativo a corto plazo en los saneamientos por insolvencias y citó un patrimonio neto sustancial de los prestatarios en préstamos inmobiliarios comerciales próximos a su reajuste de tipos o vencimiento.

Estrategia de financiación: El banco sigue priorizando la gestión de tesorería, las cuentas corrientes y las relaciones con pequeñas empresas en lugar de cambiar de forma sustancial su estrategia de depósitos. Se ajustaron los incentivos internos para reforzar la captación de depósitos.

Disciplina de liquidez: La dirección sigue fijando como objetivo una ratio préstamos/depósitos cercana al 90%, siendo posible un movimiento temporal ligeramente por encima de ese nivel, pero con un límite máximo de aproximadamente el 92% en cualquier trimestre.

Transcripción completa de la llamada de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the South State Bank Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the conference over to Will Matthews, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Matthews, please go ahead.

William Matthews

Good morning, and welcome to SouthState's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. This is Will Matthews, and I'm here with John Corbett, Steve Young and Jeremy Lucas. We'll follow our typical pattern of brief remarks followed by Q&A. I'll refer you to the earnings release and investor presentation under the Investor Relations tab of our website. Before we begin our remarks, I want to remind you that the comments we make may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws and regulations. Any such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules.

Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in the press release and presentation for more information about our forward-looking statements and risks and uncertainties which may affect us. Now I'll turn the call over to you, John.

John Corbett

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. SouthState delivered another quarter of healthy growth, strong profitability and stable credit. There's an ongoing debate about the trade-offs between growing the balance sheet versus protecting the margin. And I'm pleased to report that in the third quarter, SouthState did both. Loans grew 9% annualized with growth broad-based across our footprint and led by C&I up 12%.

The Southeast and Texas are among the most vibrant markets in the country, and we're benefiting from strong underlying market growth. As planned, we've grown our commercial relationship bankers by 10% over the last year. These bankers have already originated about $1 billion in new loans and have a healthy pipeline. Deposits also grew 9% and without sacrificing margin, which held flat with the second quarter at 3.78% -- that net interest margin stability reflects a deliberate shift over the last couple of years towards more floating rate loans.

When we announced the Independent Financial deal in 2024, the percentage of floating rate loans in the combined portfolio was only 28%. Today, we've moved the floating rate loan percentage up to 39% of the portfolio. And recently, about 55% to 60% of new loans are being originated with a floating rate. This strategy will help provide net interest margin stability, assuming the Fed continues its rate hiking path. Credit continues to remain solid with net charge-offs of only 9 basis points.

Capital markets activity, however, pulled back as treasury rates moved higher during the quarter. Steve will give you an update on that business going forward. We continue to see SouthState shares as a compelling value, and we're going to stay opportunistic with buybacks as we were this quarter. Over the last year, we've repurchased roughly 5% of our shares outstanding.

Before I turn it back to Will, I want to thank our bankers for focusing on the fundamentals, growing loans, growing core relationship deposits, deepening client relationships and staying disciplined on credit. Will?

William Matthews

Thanks, John. Our net interest margin of 3.78% continued to be in line with our 3.75% to 3.80% guidance and was flat with Q2. Our cost of deposits increased by 4 basis points to 1.80 reflecting the quarter's rate hike. Loan yields of 5.92% were up a basis point with accretion of $27 million, down $6 million. Accretion income exceeded CDI amortization expense by $6 million in the quarter, further narrowing the gap between the 2 purchase accounting items. This is illustrated on the NIM slide in our deck. Excluding accretion, loan yields were up 7 basis points and NIM was up 4 basis points to 3.61%.

Additionally, and I only reference this because we've gotten so many questions about accretion income over the last couple of years, I'll point out that our third quarter PPNR per share, excluding all accretion income and CDI amortization expense, was up 10.5% versus the third quarter of 2025. And the 9 months year-to-date comparison of the same metric versus '25 was up 13.9% to $9.10 for the first 3 quarters of 2026. Net interest income of $592 million was up $16 million from Q1.

The impact of the extra day in the quarter was approximately equal to the decline in the accretion income versus Q2. As John noted, we had another good quarter for growth, both in loans and deposits, each up 9% annualized. Noninterest income of $94 million was down $3 million from Q2 due to a decline in our capital markets businesses. NIE of $375 million was $17 million above Q2's levels, primarily due to employee compensation expense. Some factors in that increase include: one, higher incentive accruals, including for growth and production; two, higher salaries with the July 1 merit increase date for much of the employee base; and three, lower deferred loan costs in the quarter.

I'll note that our revenue producer hiring initiative has been very successful with the addition of some great talent and some great wins in terms of production. The total cost of this group of employees, including not just compensation, but also recruiting and business development expenses is approximately $15 million year-to-date. Looking to the fourth quarter, with qualifiers around variable expenses that are hard to predict, such as commissions, deferred loan costs, et cetera, we expect Q4 NIE to approximate or perhaps be slightly above Q3 levels, bringing the full year NIE pretty close to the level we guided to at the beginning of the year.

Recall that we guided to 2026 NIE growth of approximately 4% over 2025 levels with approximately 100 basis points of that increase due to our revenue producer hiring initiative. We've enjoyed more recruiting success than we expected, so that component will be higher than the 1% impact, but we should basically be in line with the approximate 4% increase guidance we gave for the year. Looking ahead to 2027, we're still early in our budgeting process, and these thoughts could change, but we'd estimate an increase to NIE in the 3.5% to 4% range at this stage.

As always, our commission-based businesses and our recruiting success could cause the increase to be slightly higher. We'll refine our modeling through the fourth quarter and provide further 2027 expense guidance in the January earnings call. The third quarter's 9 basis points of net charge-offs makes 9 out of the last 10 quarters at a level below 10 basis points.

Our provision expense of $20 million was primarily driven by the quarter's loan growth. Asset quality trends remain stable to improving, and we continue to feel good about our credit quality. Turning to capital. We repurchased 250,000 shares in the quarter for a 40% total payout ratio, including dividends. This brings our year-to-date total to 2.75 million shares repurchased for a 67% total payout ratio year-to-date and a trailing 12 months total payout ratio of 75%, both of which are slightly above our longer-term guidance of 40% to 60% for a total payout ratio.

Capital levels remain very healthy. CET1 ended at 11.1%. TCE of 8.4% and TBV per share of $58.19 were both reduced slightly by the impact of the move in treasury yields on AOCI.

Operator, we'll now take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question comes from the line of John McDonald from Truist Securities.

Preguntas y respuestas

John McDonald

Great. I was hoping Steve could give a little bit of color on the corresponding capital markets income this quarter. kind of what drove that down? And then also whether you can get back to kind of that $25 million guidance range you talked about previously.

Stephen Young

Sure.John, Yes, as you mentioned, if you look on Page 12, corresponding income this quarter was $20.1 million versus $24.8 million, $25 million guide. And I think I mentioned on the call last quarter, we were thinking that $25 million would be the number absent wacky, I think what I said, wacky rate scenario. And I guess that's what we got in the fourth quarter.

The 5-year treasury went up 87 basis points in the quarter and 60 basis points of that was in September. So it did move a lot. I think based on that shock in rates in the third quarter, I think that what I would expect for the next quarter or so is more in line with where we were in the third quarter before sort of some point, rates will settle back down and then we'll head back toward $25 million. But I think that's probably where we are for the next quarter or so is that, that will be a little bit more muted until rates settle down a little bit.

John McDonald

Sure, Steve. So that's kind of between where you were this quarter on the -- that what you're pointing to?

Stephen Young

That's right. Yes, that's our expectation right now.

John McDonald

Okay. And then maybe updated.

Stephen Young

Just to further that comment, there's 2 businesses that really make up most of that income. One is the fixed income business and 1 is the interest rate swap business. And so when the curve gets steeper, the interest rate swap business has a little bit more of a challenge whereas the fixed income business does a little bit better. And so we're seeing the handoff from the swap business to the fixed income business, and that's not always exactly linear, but eventually, it happens and should happen this quarter.

John McDonald

Okay. Great. And then maybe just a follow-up on Will's comments on the expense front. It sounds like something in the 375 ballpark in the fourth quarter will and then growing 3.5% to 4% next year. and that's inclusive of kind of your hiring plans next year and everything else. I know it's an early look or just the thoughts behind that.

William Matthews

Yes, John. I mean if you look at -- back at the beginning of the year, we did guide to a 4% increase for the year, and that was a normal 3% inflationary type growth plus an estimate of 100 basis points for the new hires. It's hard to predict, of course, the level of your success and the timing of your success when you're hiring new revenue producers.

We're pleased that we're ahead of pace there. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we spent $50 million year-to-date on that. And that's on an annual budget of about $14 million. So for the full year, we're probably -- that number is probably $21 million, $22 million attributable to that effort. We would not call that a miss, though. We would call that that we were more successful in that. And I think as those folks have been productive as some of their nonsolicits burn off, I think they'll continue to be productive and maybe even more so. So that's a little bit on this year.

For next year, it looks like consensus right now is in the [indiscernible] range, which will be right in there with that 3.5% to 4% range that I gave you. We're still finalizing budgets, of course, and there could be some slight tweaks here there, but that feels like a pretty good number sitting from where we sit today.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jared Shaw with Barclays Capital.

Jared David Shaw

I guess maybe just sticking with the relationship manager hiring and you called out the $1 billion of growth from that team. I mean how should we be thinking about loan growth going into the beginning of the year? I mean, could that accelerate as more of those new hires, like you said, start hitting their stride?

John Corbett

Jared, it's John. It was a great quarter for loan production and loan growth in the third quarter. We had nearly $5 billion of production. That's up 45% from a year ago and a decent amount of that is attributable to these new hires that we've joined our team.

Last quarter, we mentioned we thought we'd see strength in the C&I category for the back half of the year, and we have C&I category is up 13% year-over-year. So as we're heading into next year, we're looking at the pipeline as backed off just a little bit when the rates came up. So our full year guidance for 2026 was mid- to high single digits. Last few quarters, it felt like we'd be on the high end of that based on the pipeline. And so we've grown 9.5% year-to-date. I would imagine with the spike in rates and the pipeline dipping a little bit, we're probably more like the mid-single digits in the fourth quarter, still for the year, I think we'd be in the high single-digit range.

Next year, I think our guidance is pretty much the same in that mid- to high single-digit range. You really can't tell quarter-to-quarter, but I feel like the current pace and current guide stays with us into 2027.

Jared David Shaw

Okay. And I guess just sticking with that theme, what's been the client sentiment as you've been out there speaking with commercial borrowers? Are they how are they feeling with the rate environment and the macro backdrop?

John Corbett

Yes, if you're in a real estate-oriented business, the rate increase has a little bit more impact on your business. And so we're seeing some pullback in those areas. The pipeline is down about 14%. We started the year with a $5 billion pipeline, it shot up to about $6.4 billion in the first quarter. A lot of that's getting pulled through to closings. And now we're right back to about the $5 billion range. But the C&I activity still feels good, feels strong. CRE is a little bit weaker.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line Hannah Wynn.

Hannah Wynn

John, I wanted to go back to a comment you made initially in your prepared remarks, just your ability to protect NIM while still showing an attractive level of loan growth. That's frankly quite a differentiating trend compared to some of the other results we've seen with some of the higher-growth Southeast banks out there I guess the question though is, do you feel like this trend is durable in this kind of higher for longer rate environment, where we kind of live in this high single digit -- high 370s NIM range but can still show high single-digit growth. Maybe if you could just give us your high-level views on maybe those 2 dynamics.

Stephen Young

Sure. Wynn, this is Steve. I'll just kind of talk a little bit about NIM. As you mentioned, I mean it was stable this quarter at $3.78 and we grew our interest-earning assets, $1.1 billion, which is sort of in that mid- to upper single-digit range. So really happy with that. Deposit costs increased 4 basis points, which was within our expectations. And so as we think about going forward. I'll kind of lay out where we see the pluses of and minuses there to NIM. If you look at -- think about the 4 different areas that entrusting assets and for us, John just mentioned that we think mid- to upper single digits all the way through '27, best we can tell. That's sort of where we think that will be -- if you look at the average for 2027, that would be around $66 billion. That's sort of how we're thinking about it today.

The rate forecast changed from June, we had no rate hikes and now we have in our models, we have 2 total Fed rate hikes, 1 that's already in September and then 1 more in December and then we're using the same yield curve. So that we had at -- So the 5 year is roughly about 5% which is where we do a lot of our fixed pricing off of.

And then as it relates to deposit costs, we have 40% of the existing beta of the book on the beta. And then, of course, we have new deposits that will be on a little higher. So we kind of use a 50% total beta on the growth and the existing book. And then loan accretion really has been pretty steady over the last year. I think we said at the beginning of the year, $125 million for '26. That seems about where we're going to be maybe half of that for next year.

But based on all these assumptions, we expect NIM to be between $3.75 and $3.85. And this range is 5 basis points higher than last quarter. And it's really due to your question to a couple of different things. It's due to the Fed rate hikes, and we are a little bit asset sensitive when we have the floating rate loans that John mentioned in his prepared remarks versus our exception price deposits.

The second is the higher yield curve for fixed asset repricing. And then the third is just new production on the steeper yield curve. So based on all those assumptions, our models, we expect this range to stay in effect through '27. So it's a positive story for us. A lot of that's driven by our asset sensitivity and really the fixed asset repricing that we've talked about last quarter.

Hannah Wynn

Great. That's very helpful, Steve. I appreciate all that color. Maybe just to dig a little deeper into deposit costs this quarter. Obviously, a really great result there. again, very differentiating relative to some other high-growth names out there. Could you talk just a little bit about your deposit strategy in the quarter? Maybe just how you were able to achieve 9% growth, while while kind of balancing and managing cost of funds so well? Are you incentivizing differently? Or are you looking and tapping some of your less expensive markets for deposits. Just kind of how are you attacking deposit growth in this environment?

Unknown Executive

Well, it's really no new strategy here. It's a continuation of existing strategy. Certainly, the focus has changed and gotten more precise -- but I mean, we're seeing a lot of really good wins this quarter -- we saw a lot going on in the treasury management area. I think we opened up new accounts that for new clients to the bank, new treasury management accounts, that was about $700 million little over $700 million underneath the -- but in the middle of that, we had quarterly tax payments go out for $0.5 billion and we had public funds down $250 million. So it sort of wiped out the the temporary part of that.

But what's going on in the underlying bank is we're growing real relationships with new money at great rates. And if you look at sort of our new money -- if you look at all the money that's new to the bank from a customer perspective, we're raising money somewhere. If you look at CDs, money markets, DDA altogether, it's a little less than 3%. So that's where the new money is coming in. But I would say no huge change in strategy. I just think it's -- we're seeing a lot of momentum, particularly on the treasury management side. But we're also seeing it throughout the bank, and we're also seeing new geographies like Texas and Colorado, where they didn't have that product a year ago, we're starting to see some item there.

William Matthews

And Wynn, you did ask about incentives. It's to say that we did tweak a little bit sort of our intercompany crediting to maybe reemphasize the importance of deposits so that there's a little bit of an incentive change in that regard, too.

Hannah Wynn

Yes. Okay. That's helpful, guys. And maybe just 1 clarification on the margin that kind of increased guide there, Steve. Is it really a steeper curve that kind of gets us to the upside case there, the $385 million.

Stephen Young

Sure. Yes. No, it is. It's both. Obviously, Treasury just mentioned it, it's still negative to to the fee income side on correspondent. So we got an 80 basis point shock in the 5-year, but it's a positive to NIM. We have, as I mentioned last quarter, we have about $1 billion a month over the next 5 -- excuse me, $1 billion a quarter over the next 5 quarters to the end of 2017, that will reprice on the South State legacy loan book, and those are fixed rate repricings and they come in around 5.5%. That's about where the coupon is.

And we think those will move up somewhere around 150 basis points. If rates don't move a whole lot. And that's a significant tailwind to fixed rate repricing into NIM. We also have securities that will reprice that are maturing that are about $1 billion, a little over $1 billion over the next 5 quarters. that probably will have an increase of about 2%. So that fixed asset repricing is significant. But I'd also say it's a combination of that. It's a combination of the Fed rate hikes where our floating rate loans are outpacing our the margin increase. That's probably 1 to 2 basis points versus our deposits.

And then we also have new production that there will be a little bit higher. But those kind of those 3 things kind of make up that guide.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rose with Raymond James.

Michael Rose

Just wanted to get a thought on buybacks here. Obviously, you guys bought back a decent amount this quarter. But a little bit less than in prior quarters. Can you just talk about kind of the thought process here in capital levels and maybe what the tailing rules will do for CET1.

William Matthews

Sure. Sure, Michael. It's Will. We have -- in the last year, as we said, been above our expectations for the long-term total payout ratio, which we've said is 40% to 60%. If you look back Q3 was at 40%. Year-to-date, it's been 67%. -- trailing 12 months has been 75%. So we've been more active over the past year. I'd say we still think that 40% to 60% makes sense for a company that's a growth company growth margins like ours. -- given that we've been more active repurchasing over the last year, I'd say looking ahead to 2027 without the benefit of a crystal ball, we're likely at the lower end of that payout ratio range in 2027.

So we were 40% in the fourth quarter. So we're probably the lower end of the 40% to 60% in 2027, recognized that in 2026, we've been north of the top end of that range. With respect to the tailor rules and whatnot, while that will benefit our CET1 becomes finalized by reducing the risk-weighted assets. Today, we don't see us changing our capital risk appetite, if you will in light of that. So we still think that CET1 in the 11 to 12 range makes sense for us. for all the reasons about growth and just being a company with a bit of a margin of safety sort of philosophy. But if those did pass, you'd see our CET1 improved probably by about 8 basis points or so.

Michael Rose

Very helpful, Will. And then maybe just 1 follow-up for Steve. Just as we think about kind of the 3.5% to 4% expense growth, how should we think about that toggle with kind of the fees to average assets. I would assume if we get another rate hike or 2 the correspondent will continue to be a little bit depressed here. So kind of the way to think about it is you would kind of be towards the lower end of that expense growth.

If the fees to average assets kind of are at the lower end and then would scale upward if that were to kind of revert higher. Is that the toggle we should kind of contemplate as we're thinking about fees and expenses?

Stephen Young

Yes. I think generally, Michael, I think this quarter, we did $94 million of fee income. That was 54 basis points of assets. So our guide has been 55% to 60%. But like I said, in the next quarter or 2, that's probably going to be on the lower end of that, maybe similar to where we were in the fourth quarter -- or excuse me, in the third quarter. So that's probably accurate.

And then as I mentioned, the NIM guide has gone up. And so as we kind of think about the balance of the 2, total revenue really doesn't change in this environment. and we're headed towards 10% PPNR growth year-over-year. So if you kind of think about just big picture how we're thinking about it, that's how we're trying to land all of those moving parts.

Operator

Your next call comes from the line of Janet Lee with TD Cohen.

Sun Young Lee

I think you obviously raised the NIM guide, which is positive and it seems like you held the line pretty well on deposit costs quarter as well. And you're pointing to -- if I heard it correctly, 50% total deposit beta through the cycle. Are you able to share where those new deposits are coming into the bank as it stands? And just kind of kind of a follow-up question to what was asked earlier, how you're able to bring in those deposits at such low cost. Are you able to share where these new deposits, which seem to be coming in at a slightly higher price rises before.

Stephen Young

Sure. Yes, it's Steve. The new customer money when you include all so if you just look at new non-CD money, which would be DDAs, money markets, savings accounts. I think those came in around 230 this quarter. But if you add the CDs, which is a real part of what we're doing, as you know, that moves the new customer money up in the 2.95% range for the quarter. That was for the third quarter.

And then if you had any wholesale, that could be closer in the $330 million to $340 million range. So if you kind of peel back beyond you, that's the way the pricing for the third quarter went, of course, most of the quarter. there was not a Fed rate hike until the very end. So my guess is it will go up a little bit, and that's part of the guide of the betas and all the stuff. But that's sort of where the third quarter fell out. And I think in the new -- if you looked at our new money market accounts, if you just look at that granularity, we raised new money about $670 million at 3.12% for the quarter -- if you look at new and renewed CDs, I think it was $1.65 billion at $362 million. So that kind of gives you more color behind that new customer money, but those are kind of the part of pieces. But if you kind of summarize all that new customer money at $2.95 is where we saw that come in.

Sun Young Lee

Got it. In terms of capital deployment what's your -- can you give us an update that stands on M&A? Is this something that's still on the cards or -- is that not an attractive option in a current environment?

John Corbett

It's John. I mean nothing's changed on our thinking there. The bank is performing great. We were growing talent. The balance sheet is really growing well. We've got strong earnings. So as we think about capital priorities, the first priority is keep growing our dividend alongside of earnings growth, that would be one. Number 2 is the organic balance sheet growth and the fastest markets of the country. So we're blessed with a great pipeline. Number 3 would be share repurchases as long as the valuations are as attractive as they are now and M&A would be the lowest priority.

Sun Young Lee

Got it. If I could squeeze 1 more. How do we are there any certain markets or categories within your lending -- is there any spread compression that you're seeing in any 1 particular area, depending on who you talk to, some people are pointing to some multifamily spread compression in Texas. Wondering if that's something that you're seeing in any particular way?

John Corbett

Where we've seen spread compression is probably a result of the yield curve moving up as quickly as it is. Unlike the capital markets business, a lot of these loans come with a fixed rate commitment. -- from the time of the commitment to the time of the closing, which might be 45 days or so. And if the rates move up significantly, sometimes the competition, sometimes we don't raise the rate as quickly as the yield curve, so you do wind up seeing some spread compression. My guess is most of it's tied to the fact of how rapidly the yield curves moved up. If the yield curve stabilizes, I still think there's attractive spreads in the markets that we're lending into.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gary Tenner with D.A. Davidson.

Gary Tenner

You've talked a little bit about kind of the beta assumption on the deposit side with higher rates. I'm just curious, the last hiking cycle you weren't in Texas yet. I'm just wondering if you're contemplating any differences through that franchise on a combined basis going forward?

Stephen Young

This is Steve. Yes, that's all included in that guide. I think if you remember, before the merger with independent, I think South State legacy was somewhere around 30 in maybe 32%, 33% of betas. And then Texas and Colorado, we're in the mid-50s. And so that combined was about 40% on the existing.

So that's sort of part of that guide just for the existing book -- and then -- so if you kind of play that out over a couple of rate hikes, we were around 175 cost of deposits, maybe the second quarter, somewhere in there. So if you use 50% over the next couple of quarters, you get to maybe by the end of the first quarter, if those rate hikes come through or close to 2%. That's kind of how we're thinking about modeling it.

Gary Tenner

I appreciate that. And then on the correspondent banking business, just thinking of the kind of the variation margin. Obviously, the gross number was lower this quarter, but the ratio margin increased as well. So just wondering how to think of that more from a net basis. You've talked about the grows a little bit, but just like thinking about the net.

Stephen Young

No, that's good. And we look at that number. It's sort of I guess, somewhat related to that income, but really not a lot, and we can talk about that offline. But basically, that number tracks 2 things. It's the rate of the 10-year treasury and then also the Fed funds rate. So it moves around with that. But I think in the fourth -- in the third quarter, the average 10-year treasury rate was up from 4.42% to 4.75%, so it was up 33 basis points. And of course, it's really spiked at the end of the quarter. That's where you see the variation margin times the Fed funds, which also went up at the end of the quarter to come up.

So our expectation, I think this quarter, it was in the $55 million range negative. I would think it's probably if things kind of go as we think for 4Q, maybe it's in the $6.5 million, $7 million range, somewhere in there would be our expectation on a negative basis just for the variation margin.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Elian with JPMorgan.

Anthony Elian

On correspondent, earlier this year, you talked about some new products that could provide a lift of fee income. Has the timing on rolling out some of those new products change given the higher rate backdrop -- and when we could potentially see that $25 million of income turn into $30 million?

Stephen Young

Sure. No, great question. And yes, we are moving forward on those projects really a couple of different products that we're offering out. One is a new FX platform. One is a commodities platform. And those were doing some test trades on commodities now, and we see that to be rolled out probably on a real basis in the first quarter. And then -- also on the FX side, I think that's been -- that project has gotten delayed a little bit maybe to the -- maybe April 1.

So we'll see some benefit to both of those -- but I don't think -- I think that both of those, if you kind of add them together, probably on a full run rate basis, at $10 million to $15 million range in year 1. -- once they're fully established. So maybe it's a couple of million dollars a quarter or something like that once they're fully -- and then on capital, what exactly is driving the expectation for 2027 total payout ratio to be at the lower end of your 40% to 60% guide? I get that this year will be above that range, but you still have a lot of buyback remaining. Your CET1 is within the 11% to 12% range you provided and you potentially have tailoring coming.

William Matthews

Yes. Tony, I'd say 2 things. One, the tailoring today is not part of the equation for us. It may become as we study it further. But today, it's not. The -- and we don't have firm plans we put in place and say, lock and low, that's where we're going to go with buybacks for the next 12 months. But looking at, again, the long-term total payout ratio and where we've been the last year, we think it makes us to be at the lower end of the range this year. our CET1 appetite is to be in the 11% to 12% range. We're just shy of 11 million end this quarter. We've got, we think, good growth prospects ahead of us.

So from a priority standpoint, while capital return through repurchases is certainly on the list we think growth at appropriate returns on capital levels is superior in terms of long-term shareholder value to share repurchases. And right now, we think that's probably where we'll be investing more capital next year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Severini with Jefferies.

Unknown Analyst

This is Brian Bellino on for Dave. Just on credit, obviously, it's been fairly strong, at least over the past few quarters. Just wondering with the 5-year up as much as it is if you're foreseeing any potential incremental stress on CRE borrowers as they come to their resets and maturities next year?

John Corbett

We're not at this point, Brian. You're seeing the classified, criticized asset trends are all kind of improving. We're talking to our credit folks. We don't really see any material changes to the charge-offs in the near term. And those CRE loans that you're referencing, the -- a lot of these were originated coming out of COVID in '21, '22. And the weighted average loan to values are around 55%. So there's just a lot of margin in those deals, and they're either rightsized at maturity or if the cash flow is a little less or they're able to move it to another another lender, permanent lenders.

So far, we're not seeing issues to naturally the long-term treasuries continue to move up materially from here that could create issues. But right now, we're not experiencing that.

Unknown Analyst

Great. And just on the loan-to-deposit ratio, I think in the past, you've quoted looking to stick no higher than 92%, I guess, just wanted to see if that's still the same focusing into next year if there's some potential work of room around that number?

Stephen Young

Yes. No, that's right. I think for us, sort of target is around 90%. There might be a quarter or 2, the new higher than that for a little bit, but not much higher than 92% in any particular quarter, but the target would be 90. That's how I 'd model it. And you saw that this quarter. I mean, you saw that in the second quarter, we grew loans, I think, 11% deposits 3%, and that got us to 90%, and this quarter it was 99%. And I would expect as we continue to grow loans mid- to upper single digits, the deposit growth would stay in check there to keep that 90% over the medium term.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timur Braziler from UBS.

Timur Braziler

Just a couple of follow-up questions for me. On the deposit side, you have the spot rate at the end of the quarter? I don't have it in front of me. We typically don't disclose it, but it wasn't a dramatic, I don't remember the quarter exactly where we started, where we ended, but it wasn't -- I mean, we were only up 4 basis points. So it was a kind of a ratable thing as I recall, but I don't have the number in front of me.

Unknown Executive

Okay. And then I've been getting some questions, some investors kind of push back over the course of the quarter on correspondent banking in at where those levels were during the last hiking cycle versus where they are now still implies some downside. Maybe just talk us through what's changed in that business and why the levels that you saw in in 2024, end of '23, early '24 why that's kind of off the table here in this rate hiking cycle.

Stephen Young

Yes, I think a couple of things. One is in 2024, there was a bit of a liquidity situation going on in the banking industry. Of course, we serve a lot of bank clients. And so loan growth really went down to very little in that environment. And remember, we do interest rate swaps in particular loans. So that's -- there's a lot more volume going through the pipe. And so even if the yield curve is not perfect for that business, there's still volume -- as it relates to fixed income, same issue.

Remember, in 2024, everybody was talking about AOCI and how significant it was than it was because rates shocked up significantly. This certainly was a bit of a rate shock but not near anywhere near 30, 100 basis point shock. So what we're seeing clients do now is clients are investing. People look at this opportunity and they see 3- and 4-year duration paper in the 5.5%, sometimes as high as 6% range. which is a lot steeper and a better place to invest than a few years ago.

Timur Braziler

Great. And then just last for me. You brought up the success you're having hiring -- just any color you can provide on which institutions you're having most success hiring from?

John Corbett

Yes. It's very diverse based upon the market, but we're getting a lot of bankers out of the regional banks and some out of the money center banks. -- where we're having the most success. I think I mentioned before, is in Texas. The total relationship management sales force in Texas is up 22% from the same period last year. So that just leaves us as we integrated that bank over the last couple of years. Dan Stroll leads it for us. They've not only just strike the cool A of the South State culture. They're out selling the South State tooled.

North Carolina is up 19% year-over-year. Atlanta is up 16%. So in the geographies, overall, we've increased the sales force by 13%.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Marinac of Brean Capital.

Christopher Marinac

Thanks for hosting us today. Steve, I just want to go back to the deposit comment you made a little while ago about the near 3% all in. Does that number go up further from here this quarter? Or can you manage it to be about the same?

Stephen Young

Yes, good question, Chris. If you looked at the last several quarters and you looked at that number, it ticked up -- I don't have the number the all-in number from last quarter, but I'm thinking about the money market rates were up maybe 20 basis points or so from last quarter, but that doesn't reflect all things. So my expectation is rates are up. So I would expect it to come up some. I just don't have a great prediction on what that would be in the next quarter. But I do think based on our modeling, that beta is probably pretty accurate.

If you think about there's the new money part and then there's the -- which is what you're referencing, and then there's the existing book the existing book, the way we manage that is mainly through exception pricing. And we have already for the September rate hike already factored that into the fourth quarter guidance. But I would expect it to probably be somewhere in that 3% range. But it's a little early to be able to tell that going into the next quarter.

Christopher Marinac

And as you have success on the treasury side, particularly in your new markets, that's also going to drive that new money or hold back the new money rate as well.

Stephen Young

It should. I mean our job is to grow treasury management accounts treasury management balances, small business accounts, small business balances in retail and checking. So I mean our focus in the way the incentives are set up in in the offices as well as in the RM level is very much pro checking, and that's where we believe the relationship exists and that's where we're focused.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I would now turn the call back to John Corbett for closing remarks.

John Corbett

All right. Thank you, Tracy. I'd just wrap up by saying that we're in the middle of the budget season now. And so far, we're liking what we're seeing for 2027. For several years, we've been focused on investing in technology and infrastructure. But now we're investing in people and expanding the sales team, and that's a lot more fun and rewarding. As you've seen in our balance sheet growth, it's working, and our net interest margin is stable and it's headed in the right direction with the back book repricing, more floating rate assets, which gives us confidence headed into 2027.

So I want to thank you for joining us this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, don't hesitate to reach out. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.