Campbell’s (CPB) Earnings Call zum 4. Quartal des Geschäftsjahres 2026: Ausblick auf das Geschäftsjahr 2027 und 500-Millionen-Dollar-Einsparungsplan

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Die Campbell’s Company erwartet für das Geschäftsjahr 2027 einen Rückgang des organischen Nettoumsatzes um etwa 3 % in der Mitte der Prognosespanne. Für den Bereich Meals & Beverages wird ein leichter Rückgang erwartet, während der Bereich Snacks im ersten Quartal seinen Tiefpunkt erreichen und sich danach leicht verbessern dürfte.
• Die Prognose für das bereinigte Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) liegt bei 1,65 bis 1,80 US-Dollar. Das Management rechnet im ersten Quartal mit einem deutlichen Rückgang gegenüber dem Vorjahr, gefolgt von einer sequenziellen Verbesserung und einer Rückkehr zu einem positiven EPS-Wachstum bis zum vierten Quartal.
• Für das gesamte Geschäftsjahr 2027 wird eine Inflation von 5 % bis 6 % prognostiziert, wobei die Logistikinflation im zweistelligen Bereich liegt. Für die Bruttomarge des Gesamtjahres wird ein Rückgang um 50 bis 100 Basispunkte erwartet, der sich jedoch in der zweiten Jahreshälfte im Jahresvergleich ins Positive drehen dürfte.
• Campbell’s hat die Preise für etwa 60 % seines Portfolios um durchschnittlich 4 % bis 5 % angehoben. Eine positive Preisrealisierung sollte im zweiten Quartal einsetzen, das Management modellierte jedoch eine Preiselastizität von etwa 1,5x.
• Das Unternehmen hat ein Kosteneinsparungsprogramm im Umfang von 500 Millionen US-Dollar gestartet, das die Geschäftsjahre 2027 bis 2030 abdeckt. Dies umfasst 150 Millionen US-Dollar an zuvor geplanten Einsparungen und 350 Millionen US-Dollar an zusätzlichen Maßnahmen.
• Der Umsatz im Bereich Snacks dürfte im ersten Quartal im hohen einstelligen Prozentbereich sinken. Das Management rechnet für das Geschäftsjahr 2027 nicht mit einer Rückkehr des Snack-Konsums ins Positive, erwartet jedoch eine leichte Verbesserung im Laufe des Jahres.

Wichtige Finanzdaten

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Für das Segment Meals & Beverages wird ein leichtes Minus mit einer relativ beständigen Umsatzentwicklung im gesamten Geschäftsjahr 2027 erwartet. Die Rentabilität im ersten Quartal wird durch innovationsbedingte Regalstellgebühren, In-Store-Aktivierungen und Werbeausgaben für das Feiertagsgeschäft belastet. Diese Investitionen konzentrieren sich auf das Fertiggerichte-Geschäft.

Kochbezogene Produkte bleiben eine wesentliche Stärke. Laut Management entfallen etwas mehr als 50 % des Einzelhandelsumsatzes von Meals & Beverages auf das Kochen – ein Bereich, der in den letzten vier Jahren mit einer durchschnittlichen jährlichen Wachstumsrate von etwa 5 % gewachsen ist. Campbell’s plant, das Marketing über die Feiertagssaison hinaus auszuweiten und gezielt alltägliche „Semi-Scratch“-Kochgelegenheiten mit weniger als fünf Zutaten und unter 30 Minuten Zubereitungszeit anzusprechen.

Im Suppensegment entwickeln sich kondensierte Kochprodukte gut, während das Hauptsegment der verzehrfertigen Suppen weiterer Verbesserungen bedarf. Das Unternehmen unterstützt Innovationen bei Verzehrsuppen durch Campbell’s Nourish und Proteinsuppen.

Die Kehrtwende im Snack-Geschäft konzentriert sich auf Kernverbraucher, Markeninvestitionen, gezielte Innovationen, Revenue Growth Management und eine bessere Umsetzung im Handel. Goldfish zeigte im vierten Quartal ermutigende Trends, und Campbell’s plant Neueinführungen, darunter glutenfreie Goldfish. Die Werbeunterstützung für Goldfish und Pepperidge Farm wird erhöht, während für Snyder’s im Laufe des Jahres weitere Innovationen geplant sind.

Das Management erklärte, dass ungewürzte Brezeln ermutigende Trends zeigten und der Ganzjahresumsatz bei Keksen dank Innovationen stabil blieb. Bei Chips wird mit einer längeren Erholungsphase gerechnet. Campbell’s hat vor Kurzem zwei Chips-Werke geschlossen, die umfassendere Optimierung des Lieferkettennetzwerks wird jedoch mehr Zeit in Anspruch nehmen.

Prognose des Managements

Das Management rechnet im ersten Quartal mit einem deutlichen Rückgang der Bruttomarge aufgrund negativer Preisrealisierung, Inflation, Logistikkosten und kommerzieller Investitionen. Die Bruttomarge sollte sich im zweiten Quartal erheblich verbessern und in der zweiten Jahreshälfte im Jahresvergleich positiv werden.

Bei den Margen im Snack-Geschäft wird erst in der zweiten Jahreshälfte mit einer nennenswerten Erholung gerechnet. Das Segment Meals & Beverages dürfte im zweiten Quartal den Großteil der Margenverbesserung vorantreiben, bevor im weiteren Jahresverlauf beide Segmente dazu beitragen.

Preiserhöhungen, die gegen Ende des Geschäftsjahres 2026 umgesetzt wurden, sollten ab dem zweiten Quartal einen Beitrag leisten. Das Management geht davon aus, dass diese Maßnahme den Nettoumsatz durch geringere Volumina belasten, aber den Gewinn stützen wird. Investitionen in Werbeaktionen bleiben gezielt nach Marke und Anlass ausgerichtet, statt einheitlich auf das gesamte Portfolio angewendet zu werden.

Das 500 Millionen US-Dollar schwere Einsparungsprogramm umfasst Personalabbau, Initiativen im direkten und indirekten Einkauf sowie die Optimierung des Lieferkettennetzwerks. Campbell’s erwartet im Laufe der Geschäftsjahre 2027 und 2028 bedeutende Einsparungen durch Personal- und Beschaffungsmaßnahmen, während Veränderungen in der Lieferkette mehr Zeit benötigen, um sich auszuwirken.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

Die zwei größten Unsicherheitsfaktoren im Ausblick von Campbell’s für das Geschäftsjahr 2027 sind die Inflation in der zweiten Jahreshälfte und der Zeitpunkt der Erholung im Snack-Geschäft. Das Unternehmen gab an, für das erste Halbjahr zu etwa 80 % abgesichert zu sein, für das zweite Halbjahr jedoch nur zu etwa 50 %.

Das Segment Snacks startet mit schwachen Konsumtrends, einer erheblichen negativen Fixkostenhebelwirkung und erhöhten Logistikkosten in das Geschäftsjahr 2027. Die Auslieferungen im ersten Quartal sehen sich zudem mit etwa zwei Prozentpunkten Gegenwind durch Vorjahres-Feiertagsauslieferungen und zusätzliche Handelsinvestitionen konfrontiert.

Das Management geht nicht davon aus, dass die Konkurrenten den Preiserhöhungen von Campbell’s auf breiter Front folgen werden. Sollten Mitbewerber ihre Preise ebenfalls anheben, könnte die Elastizität günstiger ausfallen als modelliert; eine langsamere Erholung bei Snacks oder eine höhere Inflation könnten die Ergebnisse jedoch an das untere Ende der EPS-Spanne drücken.

Der Zinsaufwand wird voraussichtlich um etwa 25 Millionen US-Dollar steigen, teils weil Campbell’s nun die Schulden und den Zinsaufwand von La Regina konsolidiert und eine anfängliche Barzahlung von etwa 140 Millionen US-Dollar finanziert hat. Das Unternehmen prüft Refinanzierungsoptionen für eine im März fällige Anleihe über 500 Millionen US-Dollar, einschließlich eines potenziellen Hybridpapiers mit höherem Kupon und 50 % Eigenkapitalanrechnung.

Wichtigste Punkte aus der Analysten-Fragerunde

Die Analysten konzentrierten sich auf den quartalsweisen Verlauf der Ergebnisse, die Preiselastizität, den Turnaround bei Snacks und die Zusammensetzung des Kosteneinsparungsprogramms. Das Management betonte, dass sich das Geschäftsjahr 2027 mit zunehmenden Effekten aus Preiserhöhungen und Einkaufseinsparungen stärker in der zweiten Jahreshälfte verbessern werde.

Bezüglich des Snack-Geschäfts erklärte Campbell’s, dass Umsatz und Margen im ersten Quartal besonders schwach ausfallen werden. Innovationen, Markenaktivierungen und eine verbesserte Umsetzung im Handel sollten den Volumenrückgang im weiteren Jahresverlauf abschwächen, das Management prognostiziert jedoch bis Jahresende keinen positiven Konsum.

Zur Preisstrategie beschrieb das Management Preiserhöhungen als kurzfristige Reaktion auf die Inflation und nicht als Ersatz für Mengenwachstum. Das Unternehmen beabsichtigt, Revenue Growth Management zu nutzen, um zwischen Listenpreisanpassungen und Werbeaktionen zu unterscheiden, die attraktive Volumenrenditen erzielen können.

Campbell’s gab zudem an, dass seine neueren Fähigkeiten im Bereich Consumer Insight und Revenue Growth Management die Entscheidungsgeschwindigkeit erhöht haben. Das Management führte die Fähigkeit, jüngste Preismaßnahmen innerhalb von sechs Wochen zu analysieren und an den Handel zu kommunizieren, als Beweis für Fortschritte an.

Vollständiges Transkript der Ergebnis-Telefonkonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Campbell's Company Q4 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Joshua Levine, Chief Investor Relations Officer. Mr. Levine, you may begin.

Joshua Levine

Good morning, and welcome to the Campbell's Companies Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 earnings question-and-answer session. Earlier this morning, the company published its earnings press release and slide presentation as well as both a written and audio recording of management's prepared remarks. All of these materials can be found on the Investors section of our website. Shortly after the conclusion of today's live Q&A session, we will post a transcript and audio replay of this call.

Joining me today are Mick Beekhuizen, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, our Chief Financial Officer. During today's discussion, management may make forward-looking statements that reflect our current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Please refer to Slide 3 of our presentation or our SEC filings for a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Management may also use non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide useful information for investors. Non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix of our earnings presentation. Finally, please note that this is the first quarter following our acquisition of a 49% interest in La Regina whose results are fully consolidated into Campbell's financial statements. The remaining 51% interest we do not own is reflected as earnings from noncontrolling interest.

Campbell's financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP also include certain fair value adjustments associated with the acquisition, including for the deferred payment of the second tranche due on May 4, 2027 and the option to acquire remaining interest at a future date. These fair value adjustments will be excluded from our adjusted earnings.

We will now open the call for questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Tom Palmer with JPMorgan.

Fragen und Antworten

Thomas Palmer

There was some helpful commentary in the prepared remarks about expectations for the first quarter. I think some of your sales initiatives and cost savings plans ramp as the year progresses. Could you perhaps discuss expectations for organic sales growth and EPS growth as we move through the fiscal year. For instance, does the outlook sort of embed any sort of growth to close out the year at this point?

Mick Beekhuizen

Yes, absolutely. So let me first start off with net sales and then Todd, I'll hand it over to you for EBIT. So on net sales, if we focus on the midpoint of the range of the organic net sales range down about 3%. For MMB, we expect MMB to be down slightly, and that is fairly consistent throughout the year. Then with regard to snacks, we are expecting that Q1 to be the low point and then we are assuming a modest improvement throughout the year. And it's really driven by innovation, flowing in as well as the brand support that's flowing in throughout the year and some improved execution throughout.

Todd Cunfer

From a cost perspective, let's kind of go through some of the buckets in the timing. So from an inflation standpoint. Right now, we believe the inflation hit is going to be fairly consistent throughout the year about plus 5% to 6%. As we talked about, logistics is going to be around double digits. That will get a little bit better at the end of the year as we lap some of the inflation that we already have embedded in Q4 of this year.

Negative price realization we will have in Q1, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we are spending significantly on -- from a -- particularly from a meals perspective on innovation, some slotting fees and activation in Q1, which we're very excited about that innovation. And then we have some terrific holiday programming that will have some trade associated with it as well in Q1, but that's -- we think that's going to be fantastic. But that will put pressure on margins in the first quarter. So we'll have negative price realization in Q1. And then as the pricing action that we took at the end of the fiscal year starts to come onboard in Q2 and throughout the rest of the year, we'll have some very positive price realization, again, beginning in Q2. From a productivity and enterprise cost savings perspective, we've got some great programming there and lots of good things are going to happen from a supply chain perspective, but they will build sequentially as the year goes on. They will be more second half weighted, but we feel very confident that we're going to be able to bring those cost savings through fruition.

So from a gross margin perspective, it will be down significantly in Q1. Again, there's no pricing effect, there's negative pricing in Q1 with all the inflation that's already embedded in our plan. And then that gross margin will get much better in Q2. And then we anticipate will actually be positive in the second half. Gross margin for the total year, probably down 50 to 100 basis points but will get sequentially better as the year goes on. And from an EPS perspective, obviously, a fairly sharp decline in Q1 will get sequentially better, and we think we will be positive EPS by the fourth quarter.

Thomas Palmer

I did want to follow up on the planned price increases that you've noted had been communicated to retailers already. How did these discussions go? And what are your expectations around any distribution changes surrounding these adjustments?

Mick Beekhuizen

Let me put this way, ongoing dialogue and the conversation is appropriately constructive with the retailer with where we're at.

Todd Cunfer

Yes. And let me just give you a little bit of color on there. So we took fairly modest price increase on about 60% of our portfolio. So on average, 4% to 5% price increase. We think we've taken a prudent approach to what the elasticities are 1.5x. So that will have -- the way that math works, it will have a negative impact on net sales because of the volume impact but obviously a nice impact on the bottom line.

So again, as Mick pointed out, we've had very productive conversations with retailers I think we're very confident beginning in Q2, we'll start to see some nice price realization come through the P&L.

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Andrew Lazar

I was hoping you could dive into the planned $500 million in cost saves with a bit more detail on sort of what was already in play and where specifically the incremental actions are coming from and some of the timing around it?

Todd Cunfer

So $500 million program over the next 4 years, beginning this year, so fiscal year '27 to fiscal year '30. If you remember, we had a peak program of $375 million. We were able to -- that was going through actually fiscal year '28. So through this fiscal year that we just ended, we got $225 million of that $375 million. So $150 million of that peak savings that those plans are already in place, that will roll over into the new $500 million program. So it's $350 million of incremental savings that we have identified through fiscal year '30. Some of it is the head count reductions that we just announced this last quarter. That's a piece of it. The big new item that we're really excited about. There's -- we have a major, major procurement savings initiative for both direct and indirect spending, literally every line on the P&L will have a large action around to try to reduce costs. And then there'll be some additional supply chain network optimization quite frankly, will take a little bit longer for it to come to fruition. But we will get between the head count reductions and the procurement savings we think in the next -- this year and the next year, we'll get significant savings.

Andrew Lazar

Okay. And then you mentioned a bit of some pricing actions, both incremental pricing and some price investments. Can you talk a little bit about just where some of the targeted pricing actions are and where some of the price investments are likely to come through.

Todd Cunfer

So the pricing investments in Q1 are largely in the meals business. Again, we have some really exciting new innovation on the soup and sauces side that is just hitting the market right now. So there's, unfortunately, the typical slotting fees that we have to pay to get that innovation in plus just the programming -- off-shelf programming that we're getting in Q1. The second piece that's hitting the pricing -- negative pricing piece in Q1 is some holiday programming for -- again, for the meals business. We're going to get some terrific off-shelf display. We think it's going to really drive a lot of consumption in volume.

So that is the consumption, that's the Q1 price investment that we're making. And then from a pricing for the rest of the year, it's fairly broad-based both around snacks and meals. Again, 60% of the portfolio we are touching -- we're trying -- we did a lot of great RGM work around where we thought we had the ability to take pricing with as little elasticity impact and profit impact as we possibly could make. So we feel good about where we are. But again, it was around 60% of the portfolio on both pieces.

Mick Beekhuizen

And then maybe to add a little bit to that back, Todd, to your point around RGM and also trade. With the buildup of the RGM capability, we have on the 1 end here lets talk, Andrew, about the list pricing component. But on the other hand, Todd also highlighted the trade component. And within that, we have been very diligent about like what are the dollars that we're spending and are these dollars working hard for the consumer.

So it's really coming back to making sure that we have the right price points at the right point in time. And particularly on the snack side, we've done a lot of work over the past 6 months going through that. And although from a net perspective, it doesn't have per se, it doesn't lead to a reduction in trade, but it's more about a reallocation of trade, which are personally things doing exactly the right thing in order to make sure that we provide appropriate value in the marketplace.

Operator

Your next question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

Peter Galbo

Maybe just to switch gears a little bit back to the quarter itself, pretty strong performance in cooking soups. I think you added new metric to one of the slides, something like up 6% or 7% in terms of consumption. And obviously, that's being driven by both. But maybe you can talk a little bit just more about the initiatives for fiscal '27 as you think about the focus on cooking soups versus RTS and how we all might think about that over the next 12 months?

Mick Beekhuizen

Yes, yes. So you're absolutely right. If you look at our overall soup portfolio, you're seeing that the cooking side of the portfolio is working really well, and we still got some work to do on the eating side, although we're all over that. And you'll see already some of the actions coming to fruition from -- and maybe to shortly touch on that within eating within the eating soups, it is some of the innovation that we've recently launched with Campbell's Nourish or the protein soups that are out there, I believe they are exactly connecting with what a lot of consumers are looking for at a great value.

And that's a good example of the great work that our teams are doing to really get closer to the consumer and translating that into relevant innovation and doing that fast. That being said, we've got more work to do on the eating soups, Premium is working. You saw that probably in my prepared remarks, it is a rail-specific continuing to grow double digits. We're going to obviously continue to lean into that. But I'll call it the mainstream RTS portfolio in addition to the innovation that I just described, we've got more work to do and particularly in around a brand like Chunky and the team is working through that.

So more to come in and around that part of the portfolio. Now back to the piece that is working really well and it's been working well for a while, which is really cooking and it's about half of our soup portfolio. It's on the one hand, [indiscernible] as you're describing. But on the other hand, it's also condensed cooking and condensed cooking has worked really well for a while.

Now we are going to continue to lean into that, not only within the soup side. And you saw one of the slides that we included in there. If you really look at the Meals and Beverage portfolio, and you look at the retail piece of that portfolio, a little over 50% of our Meals and Beverages retail sales is exposed to cooking. And that has grown pretty consistently over the past 4 years, call it at a CAGR of about 5%. When we are talking about that, we're really focused on semi scratch which represents about 50% of all at-home cooking occasions. And that's where that consistent growth is coming from. It's a behavior that the consumer is focused on, the consumer is seeking convenience and affordability by cooking smarter. And this is an area where we have a right to win and something that we're leaning into with our portfolio. That is on the one hand soup as you just highlighted with [indiscernible] condensed cooking but then also brands like rails, which is obviously a shining star of the Meals and Beverage portfolio and of the broader Campbell's portfolio.

So what are we doing about it in order to make sure that we continue to expand the opportunity here. It is making sure that our marketing efforts are not only focused on the holiday period, but really starting to dabble more into everyday cooking. And that's back to that semi scratch piece that I just described. And by the way, semi scratch means shorter prep less than 30 minutes and less than 5 ingredients. Think about it, 5 ingredients or less. Think about it that way.

Innovation is obviously the other space. So brand support, innovation, with the innovation, a good example is condensed sauces. And then, of course, we're going to continue to focus on supporting rails and continuing to grow the brand. So that gives you, hopefully, a little bit of additional context around our focus on empowering everyday cooking.

Peter Galbo

Great. Very helpful. And Todd, maybe if I could switch to your commentary just around refinancing and capital allocation. Obviously, the dividend reset today last quarter, we had spoken about potential hybrid issuance that may come potentially at some point here. Again, today, you're talking about refinancing. So I just want to understand in the context of the interest expense guidance being higher your commentary today how we might think about kind of the capital structure going forward.

Todd Cunfer

Yes. Sure. So interest expense, we're projecting will be approximately $25 million higher year-over-year. It's really 2 components to that. Part of it is the La Regina acquisition. They have their own debt, their own interest expense, which now we are starting to pick up, plus we made the first cash payment of $140 million or so. Obviously, we finance that with debt. And so there's an interest expense that will wrap around for a full year of FY '27. The other piece is the anticipation, we have a $500 million bond maturing in March. We are looking at options for refinancing that.

As I talked about on the last call, we are strongly considering a hybrid, there's potential we would do that. That would come along with a higher coupon, obviously, but we would get 50% equity credit. So more to come on that, but a hybrid is one of the considerations we have for our refinancing.

Operator

Your next question comes from Peter Grom of UBS.

Peter Grom

I just wanted to start on snacks. First, just as we think about the organic sales outlook, what kind of embedded from a snack standpoint. You mentioned in response to Tom's question, that 1Q is the low point. So just any guardrails to think about in terms of where we start versus where you would expect to exit. What assumptions underpin the outlook? And I guess just bigger picture, you talked about taking the right steps to turn around performance. So if we were to fast forward 12 months from now, what does that look like?

Mick Beekhuizen

Yes. Okay. Let me give first big picture around the Snacks turnaround and then Todd, I'll hand it over to you to give a little bit more context to run some of the numbers underlying the guidance. So with regard to the snacks turnaround, first of all, I'd say, it all starts with the team. And we have -- I'm very excited about the leadership team that we have in place within snacks. We've made various changes and put that team together over the past 6 to 9 months.

The team is focused and they are great operators and have a lot of confidence in what they're focused on in order to make sure that we can deliver. Now to question, what are they focused on? It's really back to 3 priorities. First of all, focusing on return to the core fundamentals. What does that mean? That is a good example of that is focus on the core consumer. And you've seen that work within Goldfish. Within Goldfish, we are focused on households with kids. And as you've seen in our Q4 results, we're seeing some encouraging trends within Goldfish. That's a good example of that focus on the core fundamentals. The other piece that within that I'd add is brand support, making sure that we support our brands, that we support our brands in the marketplace back to the campaign, the national campaign for Goldfish, the snack that smiles back as well as a national campaign for Pepperidge Farm that we're rolling out this year. And then on top of it, focused innovation. And just like what I talked about when I talked about Meals and Beverages, it is making sure that we are focused on bigger, better innovation. And a good example of that staying with Goldfish is Goldfish better for you. And that's one of the innovations that's coming out. We've obviously announced it with Goldfish gluten-free, and we are very excited about that innovation coming in later this quarter, early Q2. So that's one, return to the core fundamentals. And second priority is really creating fuel to support our brands, which is coming back to 2 pieces. First of all, the costs I talked about that earlier as well as making sure that we really utilize the RGM or revenue growth management capabilities that we're building out throughout the organization. And we gave some examples of that earlier. And then third of all, it's coming to everyday great execution. What I mean by that, it is critical to make sure that the product is available on the shelf and the consumer wants to buy it. And there's a lot of focus on that throughout the organization. It obviously comes back to making sure that we produce the right product. So there's a very clear alignment between demand manufacturing, but then obviously, also making sure that we have appropriate DSD execution in order to get the product in the store and on the shelf. And that is obviously on our everyday products, but it's also with regard to, for instance, promotional activity. And a good example of the progress that we're making there is fresh bakery if you look at the sequential improvement that we've had in Q4 versus Q3.

Now still more work to do on it. And as a result, we're highlighting that as a third focus area. So overall, I feel very good about the team. I feel very good about the actions that we're taking, and we are making progress. Goldfish is a good example, but there's obviously much more work to do. And that's what we're working through this fiscal year. So with that, Todd, I'll add over to you.

Todd Cunfer

Yes. Let me give you a little more color. So look, to be very direct, Q1 is going to be a very challenging quarter for Snacks. You're seeing the consumption trends -- they're not where they need to be right now. And then we have a couple -- we have 2 points of headwind from a shipment perspective. One point is we shipped ahead of consumption last quarter for some holiday programming that we have to lap and then we have some trade investment that we have this year and we didn't have last year. So it's high single digits down for Snacks in the first quarter. Obviously, that ends up being a not very pretty P&L. So you have the sales decline, you have a pretty large fixed cost deleverage. We have a lot of inflation and logistics costs in the first quarter.

So again, just be very direct, Q1 for Snacks is going to be very, very challenging. It will start to build back as we get in the back quarters the topline will start to strengthen, it will still be down, but the volume declines will soften. The pricing will start to take hold in Q2 and for the remaining part of the year. And then there's a lot of cost savings that will start to kick in in the -- primarily in the second half of the year. The keys as kind of Mick has been pointing out, look, innovation is going to be very key to a recovery for the year. We have some terrific innovation on Goldfish and later in the year on Snyder's, which we're really excited about. And then from a brand activation standpoint, we'll have some significant media campaigns on both Goldfish and Pepperidge, which we think are terrific.

So look, we have to get the margin structure back. Mick mentioned RGM and the pricing, that's a huge part of it. Look, the 2 most profitable brands that we have in the portfolio, the Snacks portfolio are Goldfish and Snyder's. If we get those 2 starting to stabilize and eventually grow, there is a massive impact on the profitability of this business. I talked about the procurement savings, which will have a positive impact starting in the second half on both the Snacks and the meals portfolios. And then, look, we have to get the plants. We're putting some capital in there. We've got to get the plants working more efficiently, and we feel good that, that will take place over time.

Quite frankly, the network optimization is going to take a little bit longer. Yes, we closed 2 chip plants here recently. So that's a positive impact on fixed cost absorption, but there's a lot more work to do there, and it's going to take time.

Peter Grom

That's really helpful. And then, Todd, just maybe a follow-up but zooming out, right? It's a pretty dynamic external environment. You're implementing a lot of change across the organization. So how would you characterize the level of flexibility or cushion you've embedded in the guidance?

Todd Cunfer

So I would say, look, the between the high end and the low end of the guide, the $1.65 to $1.80 and also, quite frankly, on the topline, there's really 2 big variables. What is inflation in the second half. We see a context -- we're about 80% covered in the first half of our fiscal year. We're about 50% covered in the second half.

So again, we've assumed the inflation is fairly consistent in that plus 5% to 6% range across the quarters. But if it gets better or worse, that obviously is going to have an impact on where we kind of fall within that EPS range. And the other one is the timing and the speed of the Snack recovery. If that volume starts to come back a little bit better, obviously, that's going to have a very, very positive impact on our top and bottom line. If it takes a little bit longer for it to recover, obviously, that gets you to the lower end. But those are the 2 big variables.

Operator

Your next question comes from David Palmer of Evercore ISI.

David Palmer

Just a quick follow-up. After the first quarter, you talked about improvement partially based on pricing. Do you see consumption possibly getting to flat or better or maybe some growth by the end of the year in the Snacks segment?

Mick Beekhuizen

We are not anticipating, David, we will get to positive around consumption. That being said, we are expecting that we're going to make continued modest progress throughout the year.

David Palmer

Great. And one of the things you talked about in the prepared remarks is talking about sort of getting closer to the consumer and it looks like you're doing some things that are particularly with Goldfish that make a lot of sense playing into your core, making sure the pricing is right, protein, whole grain, gluten-free offerings. I'm wondering, and it seems like that part of Snacks is more of a near end than maybe more of a confident area that you feel like this is going to turn. Could you maybe share what some of the other insights are and other areas that you also see some improvement coming within snack beyond Goldfish and I'll pass it on.

Mick Beekhuizen

Yes. Yes. So you're right. And you see it in the numbers with regard to Goldfish. I mentioned earlier the Q4 numbers are very encouraging. And I believe the team is doing the right thing. Obviously, as you're pointing out, still work to do, but we're on the right path, and we have the right actions in place we are replicating that across the broader snacks portfolio. And that's a little bit back to where I mentioned earlier, folks on those core fundamentals is really critical across the portfolio.

A good example, for instance, on pretzels is where you've seen the focus on the unflavored part of the portfolio has actually been bearing fruit. And you saw in this past quarter that was partially driven by the America 250 implementation or activation in the marketplace that were actually saw encouraging trends within the unflavored pretzels. Now we still have work to do around the flavored part of that portfolio. but really focusing on what is the consumer looking for, what does the consumer want and making sure that we're very clear about where do we have a right to win.

Another good example of that is, for instance, within Snack Factory. In Snack Factory, we were operating both in the deli aisle as well as in the salty aisle of the grocery store. And we are very focused on where is our core right to win is the [indiscernible]. So really bringing it back to that. Another good example of that is cookies. Cookies has been a little bit more volatile throughout the different quarters. But if you step back and you look at the full year, you are actually seeing that overall cookies for the year were flat, and it's really driven by an innovation playbook that the team has focused on and is executing on. And as a result, we've had great innovation with Milano white chocolate. We've had some great innovation with [indiscernible] and we're going to continue to work through that. Also because if you think about a cookie portfolio, it's still a relatively small business. So again, it's a good example of how we are going to be able to continue to win in each of these different areas. The one area that I'd say is probably going to take us a little bit more time back to your point around kind of the buy [indiscernible] is with regard to chips. I think chips, the team is doing some really good work in order to make sure that we're improving our competitive position. They're taking proactive actions.

However, these actions are going to take a little bit of time to implement them in the marketplace. So when I step back, we are making great progress on Goldfish. We're all over Pepperidge Farm and turning that around, whether it's on the execution side on bakery or whether it's some of the exciting innovation in bakery as well as in cookies and then on the salt side, it's going to take a little bit longer, particularly with regard to the chips trajectory that I just described. Hopefully, that gives you some additional context.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

Stephen Robert Powers

I guess finally have 1 question. Let me think about it this way. You talked about a lot of investments in consumer capabilities, revenue growth management, better forecasting, kind of stepping away from the immediate '27 needs. There's a lot of investments in forward-looking capabilities that you're trying to build? And I guess if you had those 3 years ago, -- what decisions do you think you might have made differently? Or what might -- how might the outcomes that we're looking at today to be different if you have the capabilities you're now trying to build looking dockwards?

Mick Beekhuizen

One, I think we would have been in a better place. And I personally believe we would have also been faster. So for me, the overall environment and the consumer has been evolving pretty quickly. And it is important for us as an organization that we quickly adjust accordingly. It's really -- one of the pieces we talk a lot about internally is rapidly turning these consumer insights into relevant food and brands. The better we are at that the better we are at that and the individual brand level, the more relevant we are going to be in the marketplace and the better we are going to be to perform because we're going to make sure that we fulfill those consumer needs.

And I think the team is doing a fantastic job at leaning into it and as you see with some of the examples, whether it was the [indiscernible] example and Campbell's that I talked about earlier, the team very quickly developed or whether it's condensed sauces within Campbell's that some other great highly relevant innovation or whether it is Goldfish better for you with the gluten-free launch. So I feel those are great examples of already us already being able to deliver based on the capabilities that we're building. Because I also don't want to give you the sense that all of this is on the come, right?

If you look at the growth office, we started the growth office a year ago. We implemented that in order to make sure that we step up commercial capabilities at scale across the organization. We implemented that, and we are starting to see the fruit of that labor coming through. RGM is a capability within the growth office that we've been investing in now for the past 6 to 9 months, and we are already utilizing those capabilities in some of the things that we talked about earlier in the call. So long story short, I think we're on the right path. I think we are increasing the focus on the consumer throughout the organization, which I think is really important as the consumer is evolving. But at the same time, we are also becoming better and better operators across the company.

Todd Cunfer

Yes. I would just give just a little bit more on RGM and trade. Look, I think -- look, we are -- the bad news is we have been behind the curve in both our capabilities, our tools -- the good news is there's a lot of low-hanging fruit that we can extract over the next couple of years. So as we've mentioned before, we've just put a brand-new team in. They are going to be terrific -- they've already done some great work on not only list price increases, but starting to rework the trade budgets and spend them in a much more efficient way.

So I am really excited and confident over the next couple of years, we're going to see some great returns from there. And Mick mentioned speed. Look, we got this team together and when we said we got to do some pricing actions within 6 weeks, we did the analysis and communicated to retailers, historically, we could have never done that within that short of a period of time. And so again, there's -- we're still in early innings on this, but I'm super, super excited about the capabilities that we are building and it's going to create a lot of value for us.

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities.

Christopher Carey

One clarification, and then I want to tempt a bigger question, but just the improvement in the margin rate relative to fiscal Q1 as you get into fiscal Q2 and the rest of the year, will that be driven primarily by Snacks given the low starting point for Q1 and then margins get better from the Q1 starting point? Or will that happen in both divisions? So that's kind of a clarification of the phasing question, I suppose, at the beginning of the call.

The broader yes, sorry, go ahead. Go ahead with that.

Todd Cunfer

Let me tackle that one first. The snacks margin recovery really won't happen until the second half. So as it starts to improve in Q2, it will be mostly on the meal side, but then both will kick in and benefit in the second half of the year.

Christopher Carey

Okay. Okay. The broader question may lack a bit of [indiscernible] the word. But I'm struck by there's this dynamic and your -- some of your peers are doing the same thing that there's been so much focus on improving volumes and improving competitiveness and now in your outlook, perhaps reasonably so, you've acknowledged that you just can't do it anymore and that you're going to turn to positive pricing now and it's actually going to drive even worsening volumes. And obviously, the macro backdrop has shifted a lot.

So I don't regard that decision. But in a way, what are you trying to accomplish now in the medium term? If I look at the commentary is maybe you're planning smaller snacking portfolio focused more on dollars and perhaps acknowledging that over -- being overly focused on volume was perhaps not the right strategy given the margin degradation of the business? Just -- can you give us a sense of what the strategic shift now is that you're acknowledging that you have to start protecting the bottom line and you're going to be accepting that volumes will be yet worse again going into this year? Any implications for what you're trying to accomplish over the next several years. Sorry to a good question, but I'm just struck by the strategy shift that you and your peers are underway. I'd be curious to your thoughts.

Mick Beekhuizen

Yes. Yes. And maybe I'll kick it off with a bigger picture and then Todd I'll hand it over to you around kind of the pricing and around kind of the dynamics within the P&L. I would say the key thing that, as I mentioned earlier, we're really focused on is making sure that we set ourselves as an organization up for success in the medium term because where we've been those numbers are obviously not where we should be, and that's unacceptable.

So for us, we believe that getting back to growth, it's actually really important to focus, as I mentioned earlier, on the consumer, act with speed and also execute really well. So those are the 3 things that we are focused on across the organization. That being said, with our brands, we need to make sure that our brands are relevant. How do we do that? It is back to making sure that we support them in the marketplace. And every brand plays a role, right, within our broader portfolio.

With our big brands, we need to make sure that we support them and we grow them with rather campaigns like for instant Goldfish, where we are supporting Goldfish with a national campaign, but also brands like rails, where we still, from an overall, call it, like awareness perspective, the awareness is still relatively low compared to take another brand in our portfolio, Prego. So -- and we have a big opportunity there to continue to grow rails, whether it's within the Swanson or outside of the Swanson and you see the brand and the products that we have to resonate with the consumer, we just need to continue to make sure that we support the brand.

So hence, you'll see that national campaign come through this coming year combined with a continued focus on innovation, and I talked already about that before, but you see us really pick our spots throughout our portfolio on how are we going to continue to make sure that we deliver what the consumer is looking for or what we believe is the consumer need. So that's really the dialogue in the organization. That's what we're focused on. And we believe that, that, over time, will support growth for the broader organization. And you'll see me highlight whether it's on the Meals and Beverage side, certain areas or certain areas within snacks that we obviously believe we're going to have a little bit disproportionate growth.

So anyway, that's really kind of the approach that we're taking. Pricing, I see much more as, call it, like a short-term action with regard to the broader P&L. Also in service to what I just described, in order to be able to make sure that we continue to have healthy margins and that we can support our brands that we can continue to invest in our brands whether it's through marketing or continued innovation launches. So that's a little bit kind of how I described the medium-term versus, call it, like some of the short-term actions that we're taking in fiscal '27.

I don't know, Todd, would you have any additional thoughts.

Todd Cunfer

A couple of more thoughts. And obviously, it's a really important question you asked. Look, pricing is not black and white pricing, there's no strategy where there's one size fits all. So we talked about what we're doing in the first quarter, specifically on the meals part of the business, where we are actually investing in price, i.e., promotional activity and the result is we're getting great off-shelf display during a really important holiday period. And again, using the RGM framework, that math that activity says you're going to get terrific returns by actually lowering the price for an important period of time. But that doesn't work all that doesn't work in every aspect on every time on every brand and lowering TPRs and price on the shelf is often not effective. And we've seen -- look, we've seen from ourselves and our peers who have lowered price over the last year or 2, that the results have been kind of underwhelming. And so there are periods of time where if the math works, we will invest in price because we get terrific volume and activity around it. But given the inflationary environment that we're seeing right now, we need to protect those margins. We need to take some -- unfortunately, some pricing activities to make the math work on our P&L. So again, there's not one size fits all, and we're going to look at it from case to case.

Mick Beekhuizen

And I think, Todd, maybe the final point, like as we've talked about is offsetting that inflationary pressure, price is only one of the measures that we're taking. I mean, Todd talked a lot about the cost savings and the productivity initiatives. I think across the organization, the team is doing a phenomenal job in order to make sure that we turn over every dollar that we spend in order to help offset some of those raw material price increases.

Operator

Your last question will come from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

Robert Moskow

I wanted to know, Todd and Mick. Can you talk a little bit about how the Board's view on the dividend has evolved over the last 3 months? I mean I think at that time, 3 months ago, it sounded like there was a commitment to it. But did something change in the last 3 months to make them reevaluate. And then lastly, I wanted to dig in a little bit on the elasticity assumption more as to what Chris was asking, it's like the new normal now in food is to have elasticity that goes beyond negative 1.0, your volume is going to be down mid-single digit. And I want to know if big picture, is that a function of how you think consumers are going to react to the pricing -- or are you also acknowledging that maybe snacks in particular, you're going to have some less shelf space, a narrower product line, some conscious volume contraction before you can grow.

Mick Beekhuizen

Let me first start off with the dividend and then Todd can talk about the price elasticity. But the -- so as I as it's also in my prepared remarks, I mean reducing dividend is obviously a difficult decision, but it's unfortunately a necessary decision that we needed to take. And I'd say from my vantage point, very constructive dialogue with the Board. And the dialogue obviously is continue to center around, hey, we need to make sure that we do the right thing in order to create long-term value for the shareholders.

Todd Cunfer

Yes. Let's talk about the price elasticity for a second here. Look, I agree with you, typically, in my former life, I've seen more kind of one-to-one elasticity, you're starting to see higher elasticities, could it be some of the pressure on the consumer. I'm sure look, we've tried to be prudent in how we've built the elasticity assumptions. We've largely assumed that there's no that were -- people -- other competitors don't follow us in a lot of our categories, there's not necessarily a direct comparison.

So it's a little bit tricky in some of our brands and categories, but we've largely assumed that not everybody across that category follows. So look, if other people eventually take some price elasticities could be a little bit better than we modeled, but we want to make sure that the pricing actions that we took and the assumptions that we built in the P&L gives us a little bit of flex, and we feel good about that assumption.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.