Daqo New Energy (DQ) Telefonkonferenz zum 2. Quartal 2026: Verluste, Polysilizium-Prognose und AIDC-Expansion

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Der Umsatz stieg auf 62,7 Millionen US-Dollar von 26,7 Millionen US-Dollar im ersten Quartal 2026, da Daqo New Energy im Juni die normalen Vertriebsaktivitäten wieder aufnahm. Der Umsatz lag im zweiten Quartal 2025 bei 75,0 Millionen US-Dollar.
• Der den Aktionären zurechenbare Nettoverlust verringerte sich im Vergleich zum Vorquartal auf 81,0 Millionen US-Dollar von 88,0 Millionen US-Dollar im ersten Quartal 2026. Der Verlust je unverwässerter ADS verbesserte sich auf 1,20 US-Dollar von 1,31 US-Dollar.
• Die Polysiliziumproduktion erreichte 43.675 metrische Tonnen und übertraf damit die Prognose des Managements von 35.000–40.000 metrischen Tonnen. Der durchschnittliche Verkaufspreis fiel auf 4,04 US-Dollar pro Kilogramm.
• Das Management prognostiziert für das dritte Quartal 2026 eine Produktion von 40.000–45.000 metrischen Tonnen und bestätigte die Jahresprognose für die Produktion von 160.000–180.000 metrischen Tonnen.
• Die Wertberichtigungen auf Vorräte sanken auf 55,7 Millionen US-Dollar von 98,9 Millionen US-Dollar im ersten Quartal, aber schwache Polysiliziumpreise trugen zu einem Rohverlust von 82,7 Millionen US-Dollar bei.
• Daqo schloss den Juni mit 555,3 Millionen US-Dollar an liquiden Mitteln, erheblichen Einlagen und Finanzanlagen sowie nach Angaben des Managements ohne Schulden ab. Das Unternehmen entwickelt zudem Energieausrüstung für KI-Rechenzentren als potenzielles zweites Wachstumsfeld.

Wichtigste Finanzdaten

In den sechs Monaten bis zum 30. Juni 2026 verbrauchte die operative Tätigkeit 276 Millionen US-Dollar an liquiden Mitteln, verglichen mit 105 Millionen US-Dollar im Vorjahreszeitraum.

Geschäftliche und operative Entwicklung

Daqo produzierte im Laufe des Quartals 43.675 metrische Tonnen Polysilizium. Das Management erklärte, man habe Verkäufe unter Einstandspreis gemäß den Selbstregulierungsrichtlinien der chinesischen Industrie zunächst begrenzt, sei jedoch zu einer marktorientierteren Vertriebsstrategie übergegangen, nachdem die Umsetzung der Richtlinie länger als erwartet gedauert habe.

Die Vertriebsaktivität nahm im Juni zu und verbesserte sich zu Beginn des dritten Quartals weiter. Der durchschnittliche Verkaufspreis sank jedoch auf 4,04 US-Dollar pro Kilogramm, was die schwache Nachfrage, den Lagerdruck in der Branche und Preise unterhalb der Produktionskosten widerspiegelt.

Das Management verwies auf jüngste chinesische Maßnahmen in den Bereichen Energieverbrauch, Kostenrechnung und Preiseinhaltung. Es erklärte, dass die Angebote der Hersteller wieder über 40 RMB pro Kilogramm gestiegen seien, obwohl die Transaktionsvolumina niedrig blieben. Ein in der Telefonkonferenz erwähntes Branchenkostenmodell schätzte die durchschnittlichen Produktionskosten auf etwa 50.000 RMB pro Tonne, während der Polysiliziumbestand der Branche auf 500.000–600.000 Tonnen geschätzt wurde.

Das Unternehmen expandiert in die Strominfrastruktur für KI-Rechenzentren, einschließlich Festkörpertransformatoren, Festkörperschutzschaltern, Energiespeichern und integrierten Stromversorgungslösungen. Das Management erwartet einen ersten Prototyp bis Ende 2026 und strebt den Verkaufsstart für 2027 an, wobei ein größerer Markthochlauf für 2028 bis 2030 erwartet wird.

Das Management bezifferte die voraussichtlichen Gesamtinvestitionen für das AIDC-Projekt auf 6 Milliarden RMB, wovon etwa 3 Milliarden RMB für die erste Phase vorgesehen sind. Die erwarteten Ausgaben für 2026 liegen bei etwa 30 bis 40 Millionen US-Dollar, wobei in den folgenden zwei Jahren weitere Ausgaben geplant sind.

Daqo hat außerdem rund 1,2 Milliarden RMB in Anlagen und Ausrüstung für Polysilizium in Halbleiterqualität investiert. Die Kundenqualifizierung hat länger gedauert als erwartet, das Management verwies jedoch auf eine geschätzte Marktnachfrage von etwa 75.000 Tonnen jährlich, verglichen mit einer derzeitigen Branchenproduktion von etwa 57.000 Tonnen.

Prognose des Managements

Das Management geht davon aus, dass der Marktanteil von Daqo bei Polysilizium im Laufe der Zeit bei etwa 15 % bleiben wird. Ziel ist es zudem, die Bestände auf ein relativ niedriges Niveau zu senken und gleichzeitig Verkäufe unterhalb der Produktionskosten zu vermeiden.

Das Management erklärte, dass sich das Marktumfeld 2027 verbessern könnte, bezeichnete den Zeitpunkt einer Preiserholung aufgrund der schwachen Nachfrage und der hohen Branchenbestände jedoch als ungewiss.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

• Die Polysiliziumpreise blieben im Laufe des Quartals unter den Produktionskosten, was weiterhin Druck auf das Rohergebnis und den Cashflow ausübte.
• Der Branchenbestand von etwa 500.000–600.000 Tonnen könnte eine nachhaltige Preiserholung verzögern.
• Die Wirksamkeit der Selbstregulierung der Branche hängt von der behördlichen Durchsetzung und der Einhaltung durch die Hersteller ab.
• Das Management rechnet in den nächsten sechs bis 18 Monaten mit dem Ausscheiden uneffizienter oder finanziell schwächerer Kapazitäten, wobei Zeitpunkt und Ausmaß ungewiss bleiben.
• Die Strominfrastruktur für AIDC befindet sich weiterhin in der F&E- und Anlagenaufbauphase. Kommerzielle Verkäufe sind für 2027 angestrebt, während ein deutliches Umsatzwachstum erst für 2028–2030 erwartet wird.
• Die Kundenqualifizierung für Polysilizium in Halbleiterqualität ist langsamer vorangekommen, als vom Management ursprünglich erwartet.

Highlights der Fragerunde mit Analysten

Das Management erklärte, dass die jüngste Initiative zur Selbstdisziplinierung der Branche nachhaltiger sein könnte als frühere Versuche, da sie von Chinas staatlicher Verwaltung für Marktregulierung unterstützt wird und nicht auf koordinierten Preisabsprachen oder Produktionsquoten unter den Herstellern beruht.

Zur Kapazitätsrationalisierung schätzte das Management die Nennkapazität der Branche auf fast 3 Millionen Tonnen, während die effektive Kapazität bereits unter 2 Millionen Tonnen lag. Es wird erwartet, dass strengere Energieverbrauchsanforderungen, freiwillige Produktionssenkungen und eine schwache Finanzlage zu weiteren Kapazitätsabbauten führen werden.

Bezüglich der Preisgestaltung erklärte das Management, dass vereinzelte Transaktionen bei nahezu 40 RMB pro Kilogramm stattfanden. Einige Waferhersteller mit geringen Lagerbeständen kauften für die unmittelbare Produktion, der breitere Einkauf blieb jedoch zurückhaltend.

Für die zweite Hälfte des Jahres 2026 erklärte Daqo, dass die Produktnachfrage aufgrund der eigenen Produktqualität nicht der primäre Engpass sei. Stattdessen betonte das Management das Erreichen angemessener Preise, die Einhaltung staatlicher Vorgaben und die Vermeidung von Verkäufen unter Einstandspreis.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Welcome to the Daqo New Energy Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jessie Zhao, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

Jessie Zhao

Hello, everyone. I'm Jessie Zhao, the Investor Relations Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy issued its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, which can be found on our website at www.console.com.

Today, attending the conference call, we have our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu, our Deputy CEO, Mr. Anita Zhu, our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang and myself., Today's call will begin with an update from Mr. Xu, our market conditions and company operations. followed by a translation from [indiscernible] and then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter.

After that, we will open the floor to Puna from the audience. Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth are forward-looking statements that are made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This statement involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.

Further information regarding this and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information, except as required under applicable rules.

Also during the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in U.S. dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer those -- we'll offer these translations into U.S. dollars solely for the convenience of the audience.

Now I will turn the call to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu, Mr. Xu, please go ahead.

Xiang Xu

[Interpreted]

Hi, everyone. This is Anita. I'll now than our Chairman, Mr. Xu's remarks. In the second quarter of 2026, market centers across the store industry remains cautious to make reformation the assay on elevated inventory levels, which drove prices lower cost solar value -- despite these headwinds included assumed sales in June, delivering a sequential increase in revenue and the narrowing of our quarterly operating and net losses -- throughout this period, we continue to maintain a robust and healthy balance sheet with 0 debt.

As of June 30, 2026, we held a cash balance of $555.3 million short-term investments of $250 million, that those cows of $71.7 million, how to mature invest $51 million and fixed term as upon the balance of [ $94.8 ] million. Together, these reveal convertible assets totaled USD 1.9 billion, providing us with ample liquidity, confidence and strategic flexibility to navigate the current market downturn.

On the operational front, we continued to pick proactive measures to navigate challenging market conditions with our nameplate capacity utilization rate, operating at approximately [indiscernible] the period. total production volume at our 2 Polycom facilities was 43,675 petric tonnes for the quarter, exceeding our guidance range of 35,000 metric tons to 40,000 metric tons. With Holotamarket prices remaining below production cost since the first quarter of 2026. Initially refrained from engaging in the below cost sales in line with top Chinese self-regulation guidelines. And adopted a disciplined way of the approach, pending further implementation of the national antipollution policies.

However, after an extensive period without clear policy updates, we adjusted our sales and pain strategies toward a more market-oriented approach G. As a result, our sales volume increased from 4,400 does 2 metric ton last quarter to 151 metric tons, with average selling price falling to USD 4.04 per too. Our wholesale transaction in shipment volumes have continued to pick up in the third quarter reflecting increased confidence in the quarter and an ongoing preference for products from customers.

On the cost side, solar production costs remained flat sequentially at USD 0.95 per kilogram with CAS costs edging down by 0.4% to USD 4.7 per ton and manufacturing cost in R&D terms to declining slightly. In light of the current market dynamics, we expect total position production volume in the third quarter of 2026 to be approximately 40,000 metric tons to 45,000 metric tons. For the full year, 2026 we expect production volume to be in the range of 160,000 metric tons to 180,000 metric tons.

Helical market prices came under further downward pressure during the second quarter with an high positive comprises falling from RMB 35 to RMB 37 per program at the end of the first quarter to RMB 313 per chogram at the end of the second quarter. Amidst odd demand, the price pricing and cumulating industry-wide inventory poison producer operated a low utilization rate with a you 5,381,000 metric in the first half representing a 9.8% year-on-year increase or decrease.

As we make our way through the third quarter, the continued rollout of Ntvolution measures sustaining momentum. July, a series of mandatory national standards were issued for energy consumption and product efficiencies across the Solar value including the final official version of a new standard, selling energy consumption limit per unit of police output, which will take effect on January also manufactured with unit energy consumption ex.3tmpertodan must complete corrective improvement by that date. -- or face the risk of plant shutdown.

Notably, the threshold of 6.3% sicker than 6.4% proposing a draft signal regulators' commitment to accelerating the phaseout of inefficient capacity. On Slide 7, the China Potomoac Industry Association issued the general principle for cost accounting model in the photo industry initiative to regulate market competition and advance to standardize industry governance at foundation for tieregulation inforce. On July 31, these allocation for market regulation issue price compliance guidelines for the solar PV sector, promoting a structural shift from price competition on value-driven differentiation.

The SAMR enters solar PV company must conduct price compliance self-review and curtirational low-priced competition and that KPIs industry self-regulation promote the general principle and give companies away from the legal pricing processes such as too companies. The SAMR also indicated that we'll take enforcement actions against noncompliant entities. Together with some other public company faster, we jointly signed an initiative to eliminate world-class sales and polyol with underantion standards on August 1.

As a result of these elective measures ostomies are beginning to show signs of recovery, with spot prices stabilizing and lower prices rebounding by more than 10% from their lease as growth. We're also diversifying beyond our full polysome business to head against solar PV class ecology, targeting the fast-growing AI data center, power infrastructure market.

On June 2026, we announced the signing of investment agreements to establish a manufacturing base focused on the R&D, manufacturing and sales of next-generation energy solutions and related equipment for ADC. This includes energy storage systems, solid space, transformers and solid saturable. These technologies support the industry and the central high-voltage direct current architecture such as the [indiscernible] PC standard advanced line of idea and other leading AI infrastructure providers. The platform is entered by Dako Group, our affiliated entity under common basical ownership of Daphne Energy which brings over 40 years of color equipment many backing expertise at Davos technology and deep talent and customer relationships accelerate our contango the segment.

We view of AIBD power infrastructure as a structural growth opportunity that complements our core business and broaden our earnings base, consistent with our strong track record having navigated several postevent cycles, we intend to pursue the expansion in a disciplined manner that preserves our balance sheet strain. Despite a challenging environment, authority industry continues to exhibit a compelling long-term growth process. Growing on our billings in global energy markets have misread concern about national energy security in which the solar PBM renewable energy sector can play a crucial role as 1 of the world's lowest cost producers of the highest quality and type of month rugby robust balance sheet and see debt, we remain optimistic about the sector and are well positioned to capitalize on an anticipated market recovery and long-term growth opportunities.

We'll continue to strengthen our competitive edge sure advancement, the high-efficiency antitechnology and cost optimization via digital transformation and adoption as the world accelerates its transition in energy, we're confident in our ability to create a leading role in shaping that future. And now I'll turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Li, who will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter. Min, please go ahead.

Ming Yang

Thank you, Anita, and hello, everyone. This is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today. I will now go over the company's second quarter 2026 financial performance. Revenues were $62.7 million compared to $26.7 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $75 million in the second quarter of 2025. The increase in revenue compared to the first quarter of 2026 was primarily driven by our sales volume. The company resumed normal sales activity starting in June following a prolonged period with no new policy development. .

Gross loss was $82.7 million compared to $39 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $81.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. Gross margin was negative [indiscernible] and compared to negative 520% in the first quarter of 2026, a negative 108% in the second quarter of 2025. The sequential improvement in group gross margin was primarily due to a decrease in provisions for inventory impairment, which was $55.7 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to $98.9 million in the first quarter of 2026. G&A expenses were $13.8 million compared to $12.2 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $32 million in the second quarter of 2025.

The sequential increase was primarily due to higher sales volume in the second quarter of 2026. The year-over-year decrease was also due to the company's recognizing 18.6 [indiscernible] noncash share-based compensation costs related to its share incentive plan in the same quarter of 2025. R&D expenses were $1.6 million compared to $0.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $0.8 million in the second quarter of 2025.

The increase is primarily due to R&D of next-generation energy solutions for AIDC power infrastructure. R&D expenses can vary from period to period and reflect R&D activities that take place during the quarter. Loss from operations was $98 million compared to $50.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $12 million in the second quarter of. Operating margin was negative 156% compared to negative 60% in the first quarter of 2026 and negative 152% in the second quarter 2025.

Net loss attributable to Durg Corp shareholders was $81 million compared to $88 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $76.5 million in the second quarter of 2025. Loss per basic ADS was $1.20 compared to $1.31 in the first quarter of 2026 and $14 in the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted net loss attributable to -- do New Energy shareholders, excluding noncash share-based compensation costs, was $81 million compared to $88.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $67.9 million this. Adjusted loss per basic ADS was $1.20 compared to $1.31 in the first quarter of 2026 and $0.86 in the same quarter was negative $29 million compared to negative $83 million in the first quarter of 2026 and negative $48 million in the same quarter of 2025. ITDA margin was negative 46.8% and compared to negative 31% in the first quarter of 2026, and negative 64% in the same quarter.

Now on the company's financial condition. As of June 30, 2026, the company had $555 million in cash and tax equivalent compared to $559.4 million monarch 31, 2026 at $198.6 million 8.25% -- and as of June 30, 26, short-term investment was $215 million compared to $88 million as of March 31, 2026, and $18 million of -- as of June 30, 26, no receivable balance was $71.7 million compared to $20.8 million as of March 31, 2026 and $49 million as of June 30, 25 no receivable balance, which represent bank notes with maturity within 6 months.

As of June 30, 2026, held-to-maturity investment was $51 million compared to $50.3 million at the March 3126 and as of June 30, 2025. And as of June 30, 2026, the balance of fixed term deposits within 1 year, was $928.9 million compared to $1 billion as of March 31, 2026 and $160.7 million as of June 30, 25 -- now on the company's cash flows. For the 6 months ended June 30, 2026, net cash used in operating activities was $276 million compared to $105 million in the same period 2 and for 6 months ended June 30, 2026, net cash used in investing activities was $19.6 million compared to $22.7 million in the same period of 2025.

Net cash used in investing activities in 2026 was primarily related to the purchase of short-term investments and fixed-term deposits. For the 6 months ended June 30, 2026. Net cash using finance activities was $7.8 million compared to $32,000 in the same period of 2020. The Net cash used in finance activities in 2026 was primarily related to $7.8 million in stock purchases made by the company's subsidiary Xinjiang from its minority shareholders. And that concludes our prepared remarks.

We will now open the call to Q&A from the audience. Operator, please begin.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Philip Shen with Rock Capital Partners.

Fragen und Antworten

Unknown Analyst

This is Oscar Jim on for Shell. Can you hear me okay?

Ming Yang

Yes, you're allowing clear.

Unknown Analyst

I have 2 questions. First question is on government support on poly pricing -- even with the recent 10% rebound in forward prices, poly ASP remained below industry production costs since late -- how would you characterize the central government stance on supply rationalization -- are you anticipating any incremental regulatory support that could help establish a sustainable price for in the near term? And then I have a follow-up.

Unknown Executive

Okay. We're going to translate your question and then.

Unknown Executive

[Interpreted] I will translate for our CEO, Mr. Xi Okay. On August 6, led by the China's photovoltaic Industry Association, there is strong initiative for self discipline. And based on the CTIA cost model, the industry average cost is estimated production cost estimate to be around RMB 50,000 per ton, so about per kilogram -- but due to the current market environment where demand activity is relatively low. -- and there's still approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons of par inventory in the industry.

So we think the price recovery might take a little bit longer than anticipated, but there is a strong consensus within the industry for self discipline and also with the urging of the government and the related departments. -- that English consensus is that it's no longer viable to sell below cost. And what we're seeing in the market is that the quotations for polysilicon pricing from different manufacturers have already exceeded RMB 40 per kilogram. So we're optimistic about the current policy development, and we're waiting to see how the policies may be enforced going forward.

Ming Yang

[Interpreted] So let me translate for Mr. Xi. So right now, the industry in terms of the value chain between the buyers and sellers of polysilicon. So some of the buyers are still observing the market and the policy development and they're taking a wait-and-see approach. But in terms of the past manufacturers or expecting a reasonable price where they would not be selling at a loss or below their cost. So there's still some you can call it a wait-and-see between the possible manufacturers and the downstream. But we do believe that the past industry practice of selling below cost, especially in the first 6 months of the year is likely to end and where the government is very element about preventing dumping of the products and selling below cost. .

So within the lot framework for price low and for the anti-evolution expectation is that this is likely to move forward optimistically over the next several months. And then we know that over the past few years, the polycican manufacturers of the whole industry in general have seeing significant losses, and we do not think that this is long term sustainable. In fact, it is very unsustainable, and this is likely to lead to the industry in trouble.

So if we look at Daqo especially in December of last year when the anti-evolution policy was more successful, right? So EQ had no cash loss in Q4 2025. So we were able to achieve a positive operating cash flow during that period. So we think that that's a more sustainable the timing of framework going forward.

Unknown Analyst

Ms. Yan. Just my second question is on the self-discipline agreement signed in August previous rounds of cell regulation kind of struggle to maintain compliance once prices fluctuated -- just wondering what makes this framework structurally distant from past attempts. And then regarding the energy consumption requirements -- what is your estimate of total industry capacity that could be phased out.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alan Lou with Jefferies.

Ming Yang

We're still answering nontax rating. -- hold on on -- let's give us a minute. .

Operator

All right. We have Philip Chan back on the podium. My apologies.

Ming Yang

[Interpreted] Okay. Now let me translate for Mr. Xi. So we believe that the current round of anti evolution policy and with the price on enforcement is likely to sustain -- what we saw in the previous round was that even with the proposal for the industry consolidation platform, right, to accelerate the excess capacity. And but the stay and nutrition for market regulation stepped in because they were very worried about antimonopoly practices between the manufacturers the leading manufacturers.

So they will worry that this would bring a nonmarket activities or behaviors by the main manufacturers. But this time, this -- the current effort is led by the same administration for market regulation and this is bring self discipline forward. And also this is not, for example, there's no coordination between the manufacturers on pricing or allocating allocation of soon, for example, right? So those times is really based on each individual manufacturers, their own cost -- production costs, right, and in terms of their manufacturing efficiencies and for them to sell products based on their ability to produce products at a lower cost, okay? So we think that this time it's actually a much more sustainable and is being supported by the government -- so we think that -- so through these 2 efforts, right? So 1 is by being 1 of the lower-cost producers within the industry as well as with the regulations energy usage.

We think that this time, it will promote a more market-oriented approach to both capacity exits and the selling of products at a reasonable price. And this is all under the current legal framework brought forward by the government.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alan Lou with Jefferies.

Alan Lau

Management -- so my first question is a follow-up on the overall initiative to avoid selling below cost. So my understanding is that current inventory in the industry is at quite a high level. And the end demand is also quite weak at the same time. So when would you expect the poly price? For example, you mentioned the price quotes at 4 per kilogram -- but given that their inventory at the wafer players and demand isn't that strong? Or when would you expect the first or like batch of transaction at a higher price to happen? Because in the past 2 weeks, all the data has halted. So I would like to know when will we expect the real transaction is coming out.

Ming Yang

Okay. Let me translate for [indiscernible] . [Interpreted]

Okay. Let me translate for Mr. Xi. Okay. I think he's seeing in the market that there is some transactions happening roughly RMB 40,000 per ton or about RMB 40 per kilogram, although there's a very low volume of transactions right now. even though the overall demand is relatively weak, but there are some wafer producers in the industry that have a very low to no inventory where they are procuring to production. So right now -- so we are seeing some transactions though not very high. What we're seeing is some manufacturers are testing the market.

So although the full cost model would stipulate around per kilogram. Some producers are right now testing the market and selling at approximately RMB 40 per kilogram. -- right now. And so it's been about 2 weeks since the announcement of the manufacturers and the guidance from the government. So we do think that going forward, we are likely to see more and more transactions happen at this new price range.

Alan Lau

Certainly based on the production costs, probably system price would be higher than that. But given that in this round of the anti-flution initiatives, there is not an acquisition plan afterwards. So if prices goes up to 40 or maybe RMB 45 or RMB 50 biogas what do you think would happen because effectively the -- this will reach to the cost level of more players. So like who would be able to sell their products or -- what do you think the end game of this round of initiatives? Or is there some capacities would be shut down because of the higher energy consumption requirement? Or like how you see...

Ming Yang

[Interpreted]

Okay, let me translate for Mr. Xi, okay. He thinks that the recent energy quota policy from the government where there's different energy usage requirements for the industry, imbues will lead to Fork exit of a significant amount of capacity that have a significant overall higher energy usage. So we're likely to see that happen pretty soon. And then also the industry self-discipline and there's a commitment from the various manufacturers that there should be a voluntary reduction of capacity or production. And then also there's a commitment that the manufacturers should not be selling below production cost.

So we think that -- both of these are likely to happen starting in the second half of this year. And then -- there's also the issue that not that many producers actually have the capability to produce especially now that the industry is running at a fairly low utilization level. So a lot of manufacturers have like a significant number of people. So there is actually a lack of employees and also lack of training and time. So a lot of capacity that has been shut down is unlikely to restart. -- going forward.

So even now, we think that, for example, the effective capacity is within the industry, midsoclose to 3 million tons. -- have been billed as capacity is already less than 2 million tonnes right now. It's likely to go lower as well.

Alan Lau

My last question is about the IPC initiative on -- as a second growth driver of the company. I wonder if there's or the backlog or progress our share on this bill business?

Ming Yang

[Interpreted]

Okay. Let me translate for Mr. Xi. So we do see that the IDC-related power infrastructure and equipment market is actually a very viable sector where is going to be a significant growth driver for the company, and the second sector that companies turning into. So I think most investors are probably aware that we do think the growth for the political market going forward is likely to be relatively low in terms of volume demand as well as solar. So the company is actively looking for other areas of growth. .

And because Dako Group has more than 40 years of experience in the power equipment sector and being 1 of the leading manufacturer and supplier of high and low voltage on power equipment such as transformer and circuit breakers. So our group is seeing a very strong demand, especially in AI data center-related power equipment demand -- so we do think this is a very significant and real opportunity for the company. And Dako Group brings many years of experience and advantage in manufacturing in R&D and in technology capability. So in terms of products, as well.

So with the growing power demand and especially for the next-generation power structure where he led by NVIDIA, the future development of a next generation of equipment under the 800-volt DC infrastructure for -- so we're targeting initially in the solid state transformer and salsa circuit breaker market. So the industry is starting in 2027 next year. And then we expect to see very significant growth from 2028 to 2030 and with power demand from on these new AI data centers based on the new 800-volt TC technology.

So with Dakos brings significant experience and Vantage. And at the same time, matching with Dako New Energy's strong balance sheet and capital position, right, to capture this growth driver -- so now we have built an R&D team in Shanghai, and we expect to have an initial product ready by year-end. And then with prototypes and achieving sales starting in 2027 and then capturing the growth opportunity 2028 to and our goal to become an industry leader within this IDC power equipment sector by being a Tier 1, both in terms of product and the team. So that's our current goal right now.

Alan Lau

Yes. Thanks a lot for management to explain .

Ming Yang

Great. Thank you, Alan. .

Operator

Our next question comes from Mona Wang with Goldman Sachs.

Unknown Analyst

Sure. I have 2 questions. One is related to the Poly business and other to the IDC business. So first, in terms of the poly business, I think you just mentioned like currently, the industry upstream and downstream players is kind of wait and see -- and given the downstream inventory is at a relatively higher level, I'm not sure what.

The Hongkong do you expect for after the wait-and-see period. And particularly, we had this kind of sale display in first half, like we uphold our pricing and then we record lower shipments. So I'm wondering like -- do you have any shipment guidance towards the end of the year. What's our priority going forward, will we upward pricing to the higher level. The payout per ton or we are kind of want to reach the balance between price or shipments. So I want to hear more about the poly business operation strategy.

Ming Yang

Okay. Okay. So let me transfer your question for Mr. Xi. [Interpreted]

Okay. Let me translate for Mr. S. So in the second half, we believe is that because Daunt, we have a superior quality product in the market. So selling and shipping our product is really not an issue. I think the question is really price. So in the first half, because we adhere to self-discipline, so we did not sell as much products as our normal market share. So -- because our competitors were engaged in below-cost sales practices. But if we look at our market share in the past, we believe that we can achieve approximately 15% market share within the industry, and we continue to expect that going forward.

So our target is to sell at an appropriate price or a resin price also be fully complying with the government guidance and the price low. So what we expect is that, say, in the next 6 to 18 months, we're likely to see forced exit or a market-based exit of manufacturers with high production costs or manufacturers with poor cash positions or poor cash flow. -- so companies with not a good balance is likely to struggle continue to struggle. -- going forward, while a new energy with our cash position and our strong balance sheet also our high product quality and low cost, we expect that we're likely to do better. to do well in the market.

So especially in 2027, where we expect to see a much improved and better market environment. And then we expect to continue to lower our inventory going forward to a relatively low inventory levels. That's our target.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. Thank you. So can I conclude that we will hold up the price in your term, and we will wait the rest of the marginal players to exit and then we -- that's the time we will see fast inventory depletion and recovery of the shipment is likely to occur in the net of 6 to 18 months?

Ming Yang

I think in terms of pricing, right, so I mean we cannot sell below cost, right? So we're going to adhere to that. And at the same time, we'll look from to sell at a reasonable price. And yes, and then -- and then for the market to have additional capacity yes. .

Unknown Analyst

Okay. That's super clear. And my second question about IDC. I think we have put out announcements like we have investment billion in the first phase. And you just mentioned, we will have sales volume reported in next year. So just wondering, can you share a bit more about the plan for the special our CapEx time line and the source of capital for this 6 billion or 2 billion enhancement? And what's our expected payback duration for the first phase of the production base? And what's the normalized apotbiliti from this business, do we expect will achieve and also for other like operating metrics will we have more other sources allocated for this new business development or we can use some of the synergies our Dacogroup aligned company. So a lot of details but can you share a bit more regarding to this net metrics.

Ming Yang

Okay. Okay. Let me translate your question first quickly. Okay, hold on, [Interpreted]

Okay. Let me translate for Mr. Xi. Okay. I think, first of all, let me just clarify on the investments involved -- so even though the total project anticipated investment is RMB 6 billion. We're only committing the first phase right now, which is about RMB 3 billion, which will cover all of South State transformers, satiabreaker and also our e-house total solution for infrastructure and also some related to energy storage. And so the remaining $4 billion is not committed as of today. So -- and it will be planned sometime in the future. And then in terms of our strategy, so we're focusing on IT-related power infrastructure or equipment.

And then we expect to have 3 primary products. right, right? So 1 is a total solution or a package solution for -- which is going to be a plug and play kind of solution for AI infrastructure. which has all the related power equipment and then also our salsa transformers and solid state titbreakers and so it includes the related software and control. And there is very significant synergy with Dako Group, where we -- because of Dr. Coop's experience and know-how and also their position within the market. And we think that is actually we can receive significant orders from customers.

And so we're now in the phase of doing R&D and also the building of related manufacturing facilities. And the R&D team is now in place, and we continue to expect to have our prototype ready by year-end. -- and getting these products. So in terms of 2026 and 2027 is really a preparation period and introduction of the product into the market. And we think that the market will see a high growth phase from 2028 to 2030 and where we do expect a significant ramp-up of revenue during this period. for these related products and business.

Unknown Analyst

For the $2 billion committed investment, we will spend in 2026.

Ming Yang

Over the next 2 years, this year is only about I think it's only maybe USD 30 million to USD 40 million this year. And then the remaining will be over the next 2 years Yes. .

Unknown Analyst

Sure. SP1 That's all from me. Thank you.

Ming Yang

And then our CEO will make additional comments. [Interpreted]

Okay. And Mr. Xi will provide an update on our semiconductor polysilicon and business where the company has spent a total investment, including land and related equipment facilities of about RMB 1.2 billion into the business. And we've been doing a product trial production and also in terms of qualification with our customers. And the qualification cycle has been much longer than we anticipated, but we're continuing to do this. And he's very optimistic that he's looking at very significant market demand where specimen for seminate poly is roughly 75,000 tons per year.

While right now, the current industry production for semiconductor poly only about 57,000 tons per year. So it's letting a very significant growth for this product, this market sector. So we're going to wrap up and we integrate our activities for this.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jessie Zhao for any closing remarks.

Jessie Zhao

Thank you, everyone, again, for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you, and have an awesome day. Goodbye.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.