Is the Anthropic IPO Worth Subscribing To? 5 Key Risks Investors Must Watch Before Listing

Anthropic had previously sought an IPO valuation close to $2 trillion, but after the company disclosed its third-quarter revenue, some potential investors lowered its fair valuation to around $1.5 trillion. The primary reason was that its quarter-over-quarter revenue growth rate slowed from rapid expansion in the second quarter to 45% in the third quarter.

A 45% quarterly growth rate remains very strong, but public markets focus not only on the scale of growth, but also on whether that growth pace can be sustained. If Anthropic lists at a $2 trillion valuation, the corresponding price-to-sales ratio will remain at a very high level, meaning the market is effectively paying in advance for several years of future expansion.

A high valuation also means a lower margin of error for earnings reports. If enterprise AI spending slows, Claude usage falls below expectations, or OpenAI, Google, and Meta launch more competitive models, ANT's stock price could face a significant valuation contraction. Therefore, the closer the offering price is to the upper end of the valuation range, the higher the risk of missed expectations investors must bear.

Anthropic reported a net loss of $80.748 billion in the first half of 2026, widening significantly from $12.969 billion in the same period last year. However, the vast majority of this stemmed from non-cash accounting charges resulting from fair value changes in convertible notes, derivatives, and other financing instruments, and cannot be simply understood as the company consuming an equivalent amount of cash.

Excluding relevant accounting adjustments, the company's operating performance improved significantly. Anthropic's first-half operating loss narrowed to approximately $693 million, adjusted operating profit turned to around $1.62 billion, and operating cash flow also achieved positive growth.

The issue is that adjusted profitability does not equate to a mature business model, as employee stock-based compensation, model training, inference services, and data center expenditures will remain over the long term. Investors need to observe whether the company can consistently generate positive free cash flow without significantly cutting R&D investment, rather than focusing solely on adjusted profit metrics.

Anthropic has signed computing power agreements worth over $600 billion with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and other infrastructure providers, with some analyses estimating based on S-1 filings that arrangements with disclosed prices total approximately $637 billion.

While these contracts guarantee Anthropic access to scarce compute resources, they also create massive fixed expenses. Some commitments involve minimum purchase obligations or long-term lease costs, which the company may still need to pay even if future revenue growth slows.

Meanwhile, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft provide Anthropic with computing power and distribution channels while also developing their own AI models and enterprise services. Anthropic is heavily dependent on a few partners for chip supply, cloud service pricing, and workload prioritization, even though these partners are also potential competitors.

If AI usage continues to expand, locking in compute capacity in advance could become a competitive advantage; however, if demand growth falls short of expectations, these long-term contracts could squeeze profit margins and force the company to continually raise capital through equity or debt financing.

Although Anthropic has a rapidly expanding enterprise customer base, its revenue remains concentrated among a small number of large clients. The S-1 filing shows that the top five customers contributed approximately 25% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026, and some major clients do not have long-term contracts, allowing them to reduce or even cease using the relevant services.

Channel concentration is equally noteworthy: in the first half of 2026, about 48% of revenue came from cloud provider marketplaces, and related accounts receivable accounted for 58% of the company's net accounts receivable. This means platforms like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft not only provide computing resources but also play significant roles in customer acquisition, billing, and collections.

If large clients pivot to self-developed models or competing products, Anthropic could simultaneously face declining revenue and the difficulty of lowering compute costs. Investors should monitor whether customer concentration can decrease quarter by quarter and whether Claude's growth is expanding from a few large contracts to a broader enterprise client base.

Upon going public, Anthropic will be a "controlled company." According to the prospectus, entities established by the founders are expected to hold 50.1% of shareholder voting power, while the Long-Term Benefit Trust also possesses the power to elect a majority of the directors. Although public investors can share in the company's growth, it will be difficult for them to exert a meaningful impact on board composition and major decisions.

This governance structure helps Anthropic adhere to its long-term AI safety goals, but it may also give rise to conflicts of interest. If safety requirements conflict with short-term commercial expansion, management will not necessarily prioritize the profit demands of public shareholders.

The models themselves could also bring legal liabilities such as cyberattacks, misinformation, copyright disputes, and data breaches. Anthropic warned in its S-1 filing that advanced AI systems might exhibit deceptive, manipulative, or even extortion-like behavior, and losses from severe incidents could exceed the coverage capacity of commercial insurance.

Whether the Anthropic IPO is worth subscribing to ultimately depends on whether the offering price leaves a sufficient margin of safety for these risks. Claude's enterprise growth, model capabilities, and customer penetration rate constitute a clear bullish thesis, but the high valuation, massive computing power commitments, customer concentration, and special governance structure also mean that ANT will not be a low-risk stock.

Before the official offering range is announced, investors will at least need to confirm the fully diluted market capitalization, the actual funds raised by the company, the selling proportion of existing shareholders, lock-up arrangements, and capital expenditure plans for the next two years. If the final valuation approaches $2 trillion, the market will demand that Anthropic maintain extremely high growth over the long term; if the offering valuation is closer to $1.5 trillion and provides a clearer path to cash flow, its risk-reward profile may become relatively more attractive.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.