Oracle Stock Price Forecast: Reported New Round of Layoffs, Ellison Cancels Share Sale Plan, Will the Stock Stabilize at $142?

TradingKey — On September 14 ET, Oracle (ORCL) shares dropped further to near $141, hitting a nearly two-week low.

Oracle has reportedly initiated a new round of layoffs, with the reduction rate in some teams potentially reaching double digits. The layoffs had been brewing internally, with the primary objective of lowering payroll costs to support the company's expanding investments in AI infrastructure. Prior to this round of job cuts, the company's workforce stood at approximately 141,000.

Among them, posts have begun appearing on social media platforms such as Reddit from users claiming to be affected by the latest round of layoffs. Last Friday, Oracle disclosed that it expanded its ongoing corporate restructuring plan, adding $700 million for employee severance and job cuts to address financial pressures resulting from heavy investments in AI infrastructure.

Notably, just days earlier, Oracle founder Larry Ellison canceled a plan to sell up to $7.5 billion worth of company stock only a day after publicly disclosing it. Oracle has yet to explain the cancellation of the stock sale plan, while Ellison still holds over 40% of the company's shares. According to The Wall Street Journal, the trading plan, known as a '10b5-1 plan,' was adopted on June 22 and was originally scheduled to expire on October 24.

Oracle 2-hour stock price chart. Source: TradingView

Oracle surged to near $170 in early September, but pulled back after releasing its earnings report. The stock price has now fallen below its short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, sitting just slightly above the 0.5 Fibonacci pullback level ($142.61). This indicates that the previous upward structure has cooled significantly, and the stock is currently undergoing a key support test following a sharp decline, rather than being in a rebound phase following a confirmed bottom.

Currently, the most critical defensive level is the 0.5 Fibonacci pullback level ($142.61). If subsequent 2-hour candlestick charts can stabilize above this level and successively reclaim the 5-day moving average ($147.72) and the 0.382 Fibonacci pullback level ($149.24), a technical recovery may begin to take shape.

Until the price reclaims the $149.24–$150.97 area, any bounce is more likely to be a weak counter-trend rally. Meanwhile, the $147.72–$153.23 range overlaps with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 80-day, and 160-day moving averages, as well as the $149.24 pullback level, creating a heavy resistance zone against rebounds. If a bounce fails to reclaim this region, the current trend should still be viewed as weak consolidation following a drop.

If $142.61 fails to hold, the rally structure from $114.50 will be further damaged, potentially opening up downside space toward the 0.618 Fibonacci pullback level ($135.97).