Salesforce Earnings Countdown: Can Agentforce Crack 'AI Anxiety'? Wall Street Is Waiting for Answers

Salesforce is positioning AI agent technology as a core pillar of its long-term growth strategy, aiming to dominate the next era of enterprise software. Management is convinced that AI agents capable of autonomously performing complex tasks will become deeply integrated into daily corporate operations, serving as a critical component of the digital workforce.

To capitalize on this opportunity, Salesforce is rapidly expanding its Agentforce platform.

Agentforce helps enterprises automate critical workflows such as customer service, marketing, and sales through AI agents. By embedding these intelligent tools into its vast cloud ecosystem, Salesforce is encouraging customers to allocate more resources within its platform, reducing reliance on external software vendors. This strategy not only enhances customer stickiness but also creates new revenue growth drivers for the company.

CEO Marc Benioff has repeatedly emphasized that AI agents will be the key driver for the evolution of SaaS, rather than the end of the traditional model. He even introduced a new AI metric—Agentic Work Units—to measure the actual value created for customers by AI.

Latest data shows that the Agentforce platform has entered the scale monetization phase. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, the platform's annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached nearly $800 million, surging 169% year-over-year. Combined with the Data 360 cloud platform, the ARR of the AI-related product portfolio grew by over 200% year-over-year.

To date, Salesforce has completed a cumulative 29,000 Agentforce deals, with a 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in the fourth quarter, reflecting strong market demand for AI agent technology.

Salesforce also recently achieved breakthroughs in the government and regulatory sectors, reaching a $72 million enterprise agreement with the U.S. Air Force to bring its AI workflow solutions and Agentforce platform into the defense sector, opening up new incremental market opportunities.

As the earnings release date approaches, divergence among Wall Street institutions has become increasingly prominent, with clashing views between bearish and bullish camps intensifying market uncertainty.

Led by Bank of America ( BAC ), the bearish camp recently resumed coverage of Salesforce, issuing a "Sell" rating and a $160 price target. The bank's analysts warned that Salesforce is undergoing an "AI-driven structural transformation," which could lead to slowing customer growth, limited upsell potential from existing clients, and "dim" prospects for AI monetization.

Regulatory filings show that Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, and activist investor Starboard Value have completely liquidated their positions in Salesforce.

Citigroup ( C) also maintains a relatively cautious stance, lowering its price target for Salesforce from $200 to $188 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating.

The bank's analysts found through field research that there are clear signs of lengthening deal cycles on the client side, and enterprises are more inclined toward portfolio optimization during contract renewals, prompting Citi to downwardly revise its operating estimates for the company's fiscal year 2027.

Citi believes that while Salesforce's fundamentals remain solid, there is a lack of strong near-term momentum to significantly improve investor sentiment and catalyze a rally in the share price.

However, institutions such as Deutsche Bank hold the opposite view, maintaining a "Buy" rating and providing a $255 price target. The bank's analysts believe the market has overestimated the disruptive risks of AI while underestimating the adaptability of industry leaders.

They noted that while the overall SaaS industry environment still faces challenges of weakness, Salesforce's start to fiscal year 2027 is expected to be "seasonally slow but steady." Although upside for key operating metrics is limited, the overall operational fundamentals still provide some support.

This optimistic stance is also supported by some investors; Norway's DNB Asset Management recently increased its stake in Salesforce by 25%, and renowned investor Michael Burry disclosed a new position, suggesting the recent stock price decline reflects market sentiment rather than company fundamentals.

Meanwhile, options market pricing implies expectations of high volatility—Salesforce shares could swing as much as 9% following the earnings release. An upside move could approach $192, while a downside move could see the price drop below $162, a new low since early 2023.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.