WTI trades with modest losses below $77.00, downside potential seems limited

• WTI edges lower on Friday and erodes a part of the previous day’s positive move.

• China’s economic woes and an unexpected build in US inventories exert pressure.

• Middle East tensions and hopes of improving demand should limit deeper losses.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the weekly low and trade with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity currently hovers around the $76.70 area, down 0.25% for the day, though it remains on track to register modest gains for the second straight week. 

The risk of supply disruption remains elevated in the wake of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, the upbeat US macro data released on Thursday eased fears about a downturn in the world's largest economy. This, along with hopes that rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will boost economic activity and push up fuel consumption, might continue to lend some support to Crude Oil prices. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's post-data positive move amid bets that the Fed that the Fed will eventually begin its rate-cutting cycle in September. Furthermore, the prevalent risk-on mood is seen as another factor undermining the safe-haven Greenback, which tends to boost demand for USD-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil prices. 

Investors, however, remain worried about an economic slowdown in China – the world's biggest oil importer. Adding to this, the OPEC and the IEA downgraded their forecasts for Oil demand growth in 2024. This, along with an unexpected build in US inventories, suggesting that demand was cooling, acts as a headwind for Crude Oil prices and exerts some downward pressure on the last day of the week.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.