WTI holds below $79.50 amid demand concerns

• WTI trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day $78.00 on Tuesday.
• Oil demand concerns continue to weigh on the WTI price.
• Morgan Stanley expects oil prices to drop to the mid-$70s in 2025 amid a surplus. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $79.00 on Tuesday. WTI price edges lower to near lowest level in over a month amid oil demand concerns and rising stockpiles. 

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold a policy meeting on July 30-31, with no change in rate expected. However, market players see signs of a possible cut in September. The release of key US economic data this week could offer some hints about the interest rate path in the US. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for June, will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively.  "If we get an indication of a rate cut, the Fed could be positive for risk-sensitive assets like oil," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

On the other hand, demand concerns continue to undermine the WTI price. On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised markets by cutting the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), benchmarks for the loans banks make to their customers, by 10 basis points (bps) to boost the economy. However, the Chinese interest rate cut failed to support WTI prices. "The Chinese interest rate cut has been too small to lift overall sentiment for crude oil," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects Oil prices to drop to the mid-$70s next year amid a surplus on the market from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producer. Morgan Stanley forecasts OPEC and non-OPEC supply to increase by around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, well outpacing demand growth.