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Dolphin Research

205 Articles

A secondary market research brand under Longport Securities, dedicated to helping investors interpret global core assets across markets and uncover in-depth corporate value and investment opportunities.

Enron redux! Muddy Waters for clicks, or is SOFI just bad?

Part I reviewed the core businesses of $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US). We noted that current performance is driven mainly by expansion in the Lending Platform biz. (LPB), with a smaller contribution from the ongoing recovery in student loans.Muddy Waters’ Mar 23 bearish report targeted those key engines with p...
Wed, Jun 17

May Retail Sales: Dark Before Dawn?

Dolphin Research’s earlier concerns have unfortunately materialized: May’s retail sales came in even weaker than Apr., marking the first negative YoY print (-0.6%) in the post-Covid period. Even before the Sep-24 ‘reversal’, domestic retail sales had not looked this soft.From two angles: by channel,...
Tue, Jun 16

SOFI in Muddy Waters' Crosshairs: Fintech Newcomer or High-Tech Hype?

$SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) has been public for five years, cycling through labels from the next Lending Club to a growing digital bank, and even a high-volatility financial meme stock. Since its 2021 listing, the share price has repeatedly stumbled, hitting as low as 60% of its IPO valuation at the trough ...
Tue, Jun 16

SpaceX: Is Starlink About to Be Unstoppable?

As we noted in our prior piece ‘From Daydream to Big Money: Is SpaceX Really Sci‑Fi?’, Starlink has quietly taken the baton to become the absolute core of $SpaceX(SPCX.US) growth and profit. It is even the key cash engine financing its expansive AI agenda.Starlink is far more than a connectivity se...
Mon, Jun 15

From Daydream to Billions: Is SpaceX Really That 'Sci‑Fi'?

'Iron Man' Elon Musk has once again gifted capital markets with his Mars dream — $Space Exploration Tech(SPCX.US), a 'crazy idea' funded with $27 mn twenty years ago that has become a $2 tn space biz empire.Earlier this year, in Dolphin Research’s initial piece on space economics, 'Musk Drops Anothe...
Fri, Jun 12

ORCL plunge? AI infra can't offset a core flaw — high interest costs, heavy debt + a sluggish software biz.

The most watched and debated name in the 'new cloud' cohort, $Oracle(ORCL.US), reported Q4 FY26 (to end-May) after the U.S. close on Jun 11. Overall, the print was mixed. For example, OCI accelerated but legacy software weakened; GPM improved QoQ from the trough but still missed; next-quarter guidan...
Wed, Jun 10

The 'Costco' inside WMT: Sam's Club playbook and countermoves

This is the third deep dive on Walmart, focused on Sam's Club — a long-overlooked yet clear third growth pillar — and a hard-nosed comparison with global warehouse-club benchmark Costco. Let's get straight to it: $Walmart(WMT.US)I. Sam's Club (U.S.): A long-distance runner catching up to CostcoStart...
Tue, Jun 9

WMT: Veteran's surprise e-comm offensive — why a re-rate?

Part I broke down Walmart’s low-cost engine: differentiated small-town locations, a fully controlled end-to-end supply chain, reverse pricing with EDLP, and a broad private-label portfolio. Together, these made it the king of offline retail through extreme efficiency and cost discipline. $Walmart(WM...
Mon, Jun 8

LULU: Founder Blasts, Dismal Results — Can a CEO Shake-up Save the Core Leggings?

LULU: Founder backlash, weak prints — can a new CEO save the 'black leggings'?Lululemon Athletica posted its Q1 FY2026 results (ended Jun 2025) after the U.S. market close on Jun 5, 2026 Beijing time. $露露乐蒙.USAgainst management turmoil (an external CEO arrival), a product-cycle transition, and ongoi...
Thu, Jun 4

AVGO: Titans vs. Titans — Is the ASIC camp breaking up?

Broadcom (AVGO) released its Q2 FY2026 results (to Apr 2026) after the U.S. market close on Jun 4 (Beijing time):1. Biggest issue this print: most crucially,$Broadcom(AVGO.US) guided next quarter AI revenue to $16.0bn, up $5.2bn QoQ but below the Street’s ~$17.0bn.Management guided AI revenue at $56...
Wed, Jun 3

AI Hyperconnected Era: Racing to 'Light'?

Since ChatGPT burst onto the scene in late 2022, AI has unleashed wave after wave of semiconductor super-cycles across compute (GPU), storage, and orchestration (CPU). It has also helped mint multiple trillion-dollar companies.If there is one AI infrastructure segment still waiting for its own trill...
Wed, Jun 3

Home mkt tapped out, overseas bets ramp up. Is Didi going 'Intl'?

Ride-hailing leader $DiDi(DIDIY.US) released Q1 2026 results pre-market on 6/2.In absolute terms, performance was soft — high investment with adj.EBITA still under RMB 200 mn.But vs. expectations there were notable positives: domestic core profits beat materially, and Intl growth was strong while lo...
Tue, Jun 2

GOOGL borrows another 80 bn: rally refill or bubble litmus test?

Full-stack AI bellwether $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) has seen its shares soften lately. At this moment, the company announced a new $80bn external raise to fund AI infrastructure. Over the past year, Google raised over $85bn via bonds across six markets, but this is its single largest round.As for use of pr...
Tue, Jun 2

Meituan: As AI Draws Fire Elsewhere, Can It Finally Stop the Bleeding?

After the Jun 1 HK close, the last name in the 'Food Delivery Index' — $MEITUAN(03690.HK) — reported Q1 FY26. In absolute terms, results were still weak, with revenue nearly flat and the company remaining loss-making. But vs. street expectations, the print was decent, led by a much smaller-than-guid...
Mon, Jun 1

No spin, no hype: How healthy is PDD with growth down to 2.5%?

After $PDD(PDD.US) posted a weak print this week, the stock fell nearly 15%. For details, cf. '拼多多: 又老又 ‘傲慢’,彻底人人嫌'. The most glaring issue: ad revenue grew just 2.5%, bucking the sector’s QoQ recovery and making PDD look like the laggard among e-com peers.What explains the sharp deterioration in ad...
Fri, May 29

i6 Alone Won't Do: How Long Until LI Turns the Corner?

$Li Auto(LI.US) released Q1 2026 results on the evening of May 28 Beijing time, after HK close and before US open. While Li Auto had already flagged a decline in Q1 vehicle GPM, the print was still mediocre even vs. bearish expectations. Guidance suggests the company is not yet at a 'turnaround from...
Fri, May 29

Inflation Resurges, COST Stays Resilient

Global discount retail leader — $Costco Wholesale(COST.US) reported FY26 Q3 results (quarter ended May 10) after the close on May 29. Overall, results remained solid and broadly in line with the Street. More interesting, in our view, is what the print implies about U.S. consumer health.1) On headlin...
Thu, May 28

DELL: AI on a tear, legacy biz heats up; firing on all cylinders!

DELL released its FY2027 Q1 (quarter ended Apr 2026) results after hours on May 29 Beijing time.1. Core results: $Dell Tech(DELL.US) revenue was $43.8bn (+87% YoY), well above consensus ($39.0bn). QoQ revenue rose by $10.5bn, driven mainly by AI server shipments.Gross margin was 17.8%, down 240bps Q...
Thu, May 28

XPEV: Inflection Point in Sight — Does the 'Eastern Tesla' Story Still Have Legs?

$XPeng(XPEV.US) released its Q1 2026 results after HK close and before U.S. pre-market on May 28 Beijing time. Overall, it beat under a low bar, with standout prints in auto GPM and Q2 guidance, as the new model cycle shows early signs of a turn.1) Revenue beat, but 'Services & others' fell from a s...
Thu, May 28

CRM: No growth, no profit — is the 'AI story' still compelling?

Under the 'AI displacement' narrative, Salesforce (CRM) — a traditional SaaS bellwether under pressure — reported FY27 Q1 (through Apr) after the US close on May 28, with a largely uneventful print. The quarter was fine, with most metrics close to consensus and no catalyst to flip the narrative. Gui...
Thu, May 28
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