Assured Guaranty (AGO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: PVP Guidance Exceeds $400 Million

Key Takeaways

• Assured Guaranty reported Q3 2026 adjusted operating income of $86 million, or $1.94 per share, compared with $124 million, or $2.57 per share, in Q3 2025.
• Nine-month PVP rose 44% year over year to $280 million, with growth across U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance and Global Structured Finance.
• Management expects full-year 2026 financial guarantee PVP to exceed $400 million. Several larger transactions could lift the total further, depending on timing and execution.
• Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues increased to $114 million from $98 million, supported by higher refundings, scheduled public finance premiums and shorter-duration fund finance business.
• Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity per share reached a record $131.99, while adjusted book value per share reached a record $192.60.
• The Brightline restructuring agreement provides for $490 million of new OpCo capital following bankruptcy exit, including $350 million of junior debt and $140 million of senior debt. Assured Guaranty committed to provide $70 million of the senior debt.

Key Financial Data

During the quarter, Assured Guaranty repurchased 123,000 shares for $10 million at an average price of $83.78 and paid $17 million in dividends.

Business and Operating Performance

U.S. public finance generated $199 million of PVP during the first nine months, up 31% year over year. Assured Guaranty insured $15.6 billion of aggregate par across primary and secondary markets, including $1.5 billion of taxable military housing revenue bonds for Hampton Roads and $285 million of port revenue bonds for the Municipality of Anchorage, Alaska.

The company guaranteed 23 transactions using at least $100 million of insurance during the period. It also insured approximately $5.1 billion of par on credits rated AA or higher by S&P and Moody’s.

Global Structured Finance PVP increased 117% to $50 million from $23 million, split evenly between U.S. and non-U.S. business. Production was led by fund finance, life insurance capital management guarantees and a commercial real estate balloon note guarantee.

Management emphasized that fund finance transactions generally have lives ranging from several months to slightly more than two years. This accelerates premium recognition and allows capital to be reused more quickly than in longer-duration municipal business.

Non-U.S. public finance PVP rose 53% to $31 million from $19 million. Transactions included a EUR 200 million guarantee related to the refinancing of France’s A28 toll road, two regulated energy transactions in Spain and a social housing transaction in France.

For Brightline, management said improved liquidity and continued revenue growth contributed to positive economic loss development. The exposure has moved internally from BIG 2 to BIG 1. Further improvement will depend on Brightline exiting bankruptcy, securing the new capital and demonstrating the ability to cover operating expenses and reduced debt service.

Management Guidance

Management expects more than $400 million of financial guarantee PVP for full-year 2026. The company said it entered the fourth quarter with a strong pipeline, while noting that the timing and execution of several large transactions could affect the final total.

For 2027, management expressed optimism about new business opportunities but provided no numerical target. Growth priorities include expanding counterparty relationships in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, developing repeatable fund finance business and pursuing large U.S. infrastructure transactions.

The company also plans to provide an update in the fourth quarter on synthetic capital opportunities, including reinsurance. Management said these initiatives could improve capital efficiency and increase flexibility between funding business growth and returning capital to shareholders.

Risks and Areas to Watch

• Credit spreads remain tighter than management would prefer, despite rising interest rates.
• The full-year PVP outcome depends partly on the timing and execution of larger transactions.
• Brightline’s recovery remains linked to bankruptcy exit, funding completion and operating performance.
• Puerto Rico-related timing remains uncertain. Management indicated that court proceedings and the treatment of the administrative expense claim remain important factors, with a potential resolution during 2027.
• Capital returns are constrained by the company’s desire to maintain a ratings buffer and reserve capital for growth opportunities, including Assured Life Re.
• Alternative investment results can vary across periods; Q3 gains declined to $21 million from $32 million a year earlier.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Management said bond insurance continues to provide value in the municipal market even though credit spreads have not widened materially. Opportunities remain across infrastructure, flow business and secondary-market transactions.

On premium recognition, management said unearned premium revenue remains important, with more than $3.8 billion of deferred premium revenue. However, shorter-duration structured finance transactions are increasing earned premiums faster even when deferred premium revenue remains relatively stable. Management estimated that shorter-duration business represented about 27% year to date, compared with roughly 5% two years earlier, and expects its contribution to grow.

Regarding capital allocation, management acknowledged the accretive potential of share repurchases but said current hard capital supports ratings, new business reserves and growth initiatives. The company is exploring ways to replace part of that buffer with softer forms of capital, which could create additional flexibility for future buybacks, dividends or business investment.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Complete Earnings Call Transcript

Management Remarks

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Assured Guaranty Limited Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Kelsey, and I will be the operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Robert Tucker, Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Please go ahead.

Robert Tucker

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining Assured Guaranty for our Third Quarter 2026 financial results conference call. Today's presentation is made pursuant to the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The presentation and today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements about our new business and credit outlooks, including, but not limited to, estimates, expectations or ranges regarding future PVP, our other new business production, market conditions, credit spreads, financial ratings, loss reserves, financial results or other items that may affect our future results.

These statements are subject to change due to new information or future events, and the actual results may differ from those expressed or implied in these statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, some of which are out of our control. Therefore, you should not place undue reliance on them as we do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise them, including any estimates, expectations or ranges regarding future PVP, our other new business production, except as required by law.

These forward-looking statements apply as of today, and you should not rely on them as representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings for a discussion of risk factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements and the Investor Information section of our website for our most recent presentations.

This presentation and today's discussion also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. We present the GAAP financial measures most directly comparable to the non-GAAP financial measures referenced in this presentation, along with a reconciliation between such GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures in our financial supplement and equity investor presentation, which are on our website at assuredguaranty.com.

Turning to the presentation. Our speakers today are Dominic Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Limited; Rob Basin, our Chief Operating Officer; and Ben Rosenbloom, our Chief Financial Officer; after their remarks, we will open the call to your questions. As the webcast is not enabled for Q&A, please dial into the call if you'd like to ask a question. I will now turn the call over to Dominic.

Dominic Frederico

Thank you, Robert, and welcome to everyone on today's call. Through the first 9 months of 2026, our key valuation metrics, adjusted operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value per share once again reached record highs. The business production was strong, generating $280 million of PVP in the first 9 months. EVP increased in all 3 of our financial guarantee business lines and Global Structured Finance PVP more than doubled year-over-year. These results reflect the success of our growth strategy across the financial guarantee business.

Rob will discuss our production in more detail in a moment. During the third quarter, we also negotiated a restructuring agreement for Brightline and we are pleased with the outcome. As outlined in our press release, once Brightline Florida Holding and its affiliates exit bankruptcy, the agreement provides for a total of $490 million of new OpCo capital which includes $350 million of junior debt and $140 million of senior debt, of which Assured Guaranty has committed to provide $70 million.

Assured guarantees 51% of the senior revenue bonds and therefore, hold and will continue to hold after the issuance of the new debt, the controlling gooding position with respect to the bonds. We are also pleased that Assured Life Re is progressing on its new business opportunities. especially considering that these deals can have a somewhat long gestation period, and we look forward to having additional information for you in the near term. We remain focused on opportunities that align with Assured Guaranty's core competencies while offering attractive returns and capital efficient growth.

We see significant opportunities for future growth and greater revenue diversification, along with our new annuity reinsurance business, we remain focused on growing our core financial guarantee business in the U.S. and non-U.S. markets, including Europe and the Asia Pacific region. Within structured finance, fund finance is one of the areas where we continue to see strong growth in future opportunities. Looking forward, we will maintain disciplined underwriting and risk management to protect our policyholders and the counterparties whose capital we help optimize. We will continue to pursue our traditional business thoughtfully and strategically.

We will also focus on new business opportunities and ways to further optimize our capital structure. This strategy positions us to maximize the value of our guarantee for issuers and investors while also maximizing long-term shareholder value. I'll now turn the call over to Rob for more detail on the production results.

Robert Bailenson

Thank you, Dominic, and good morning, everyone. Assured Guaranty closed $280 million of PVP in the first 9 months of 2026. That is a 44% increase from $194 million in the first 9 months of 2025 and only $6 million less than our total PVP for all of 2025. PVP increased in all 3 of our financial guarantee business, 31% in U.S. public finance, 53% in non-U.S. public finance and 117% in Global Structured Finance.

As Dominic noted, these results reflect the strength of our new business strategy and our multipronged approach to applying our financial guarantee products globally. In U.S. public finance, we insured $15.6 billion of aggregate par across the primary and secondary markets in the first 9 months of 2026, generating $199 million of PVP. Highlights of the $15.6 billion of U.S. public finance power included: $1.5 billion of taxable military housing revenue bonds for Hampton Roads in the third quarter. Of that, $1 billion had an underlying AA rating and $322 million was A-rated. $636 million for the city of Houston, Texas hotel tax and $330 million in student housing revenue bonds for the Kentucky development corporation both earlier in the year.

$285 million of port revenue bonds for the municipality of Angore Alaska in the third quarter and $1 billion of secondary market par through September. We guaranteed 23 transactions using $100 million or more of our insurance in the first 9 months. The market continues to recognize the size of our capital base and the strength of our value proposition on these larger transactions. We also insured approximately $5.1 billion of par on credits rated AA or higher by S&P and Moody's. This shows that we can add meaningful value even to highly rated bonds.

Turning to Global Structured Finance. We are very pleased with PVP of $50 million, split evenly between U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance. That compares with $23 million in the first 9 months of 2025. These results came primarily from fund finance, along with financial guarantees for life insurance capital management and a commercial real estate balloon note guarantee. We continue to actively develop our fund finance business. As I've explained on the previous calls, these transactions are often repeatable flow business with relatively short lives from a few months to just over 2 years. As a result, we earned premiums considerably faster and can reuse the capital more quickly.

Ben will discuss the earnings impact of the shorter duration business in a few minutes. Additionally, we expect many of these transactions to renew at maturity. Non-U.S. public finance PVP was $31 million for the first 9 months of 2026 compared with $19 million for the same period in 2025. In the third quarter, results included a primary market European toll road transaction. Earlier in the year, they included 2 regulated energy transactions in Spain and a primary social housing transaction in France.

On the Toll Road deal, Assured Guaranty Europe guaranteed EUR 200 million as part of a larger financing to refinance the A28 toll road in France. We expect to finish the year with strong financial guarantee production. We are off to a good start in the fourth quarter, and we have a strong pipeline for the rest of 2026. We we expect to deliver more than $400 million of financial guarantee PVP for full year 2026. Several larger transactions could raise that total further depending on their timing and execution. Looking ahead to 2027, we are optimistic about our financial guarantee new business opportunities.

As part of our strategy to grow globally, including in Europe and the Asia Pacific region, we continue to expand how our products are used, grow our geographic footprint and add or expand counterparty relationships. At the same time, we continue to create material value for issuers and investors in the U.S. municipal and other markets. I will now turn the call over to Ben to discuss our financial results.

Benjamin Rosenblum

Thank you, Dominic and Rob, and good morning. I am pleased to report third quarter 2026 adjusted operating income of $86 million or $1.94 per share. This compares to adjusted operating income of $124 million or $2.57 per share in the third quarter of 2025. Last year's results included a significant benefit due to increased recovery assumptions on U.S. RMBS exposures, which was the primary driver of the $30 million benefit in loss expense. This compares to a $2 million loss expense in third quarter of this year.

Economic loss development, which unlike loss expense, ignores the impact of unearned premiums was a benefit of $27 million in the third quarter of 2026 and is net of a $16 million loss attributed to updating discount rates. The largest component of the positive economic loss development was bright line which achieved improved liquidity from the settlement we reached. Additionally, Byline has continued to experience revenue growth, which along with this improved liquidity position, should put the train system on the path to success.

Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues increased from $98 million in the third quarter of last year to $114 million in the third quarter of this year. In addition to higher refundings scheduled net earned premiums also increased mainly due to the continued growth in shorter-duration strategies like Fund Finance as well as the higher scheduled public finance net earned premiums. Alternative investments generated $21 million in gains in the third quarter of this year compared to $32 million in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting lower gains across several asset classes.

We have an inception to date IRR of approximately 11.5% on the alternative investment portfolio, which is significantly higher than the 3-year average pretax yield in our fixed maturity portfolio of 4.5%. As always, we continuously evaluate a range of capital deployment opportunities and allocate capital to various strategies that may include supporting growth in our financial guaranty business, growing our nascent life and annuity platform helping to grow Sandpoint and capital management.

In addition, we are also pursuing synthetic capital opportunities, including reinsurance to further improve the efficiency and cost at which we can deploy capital. We will update you on that in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter of 2026, we repurchased 123,000 shares for $10 million at an average price of $83.78 per share and returned $17 million in dividends to our shareholders. Our holding company liquidity is currently approximately $144 million, of which $66 million is an AGL.

At the end of the third quarter of 2026, we had again reached record per share valuations of $131.99 per adjusted operating shareholders' equity and $192.60 per adjusted book values, reflecting the successful execution of our key strategic initiatives. I will now turn the call over to our operator to give you instructions for the Q&A period.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Marisa Lobo with UBS. -- is. Please go ahead.

Question-and-Answer Session

Ameeta Lobo Nelson

Thank you -- good morning. Maybe just starting with the municipal market. How are you seeing the muni market evolve following recent volatility? Is the higher yield environment creating increased demand for bond insurance. Any color you can give us on that.

Robert Bailenson

Yes. We're seeing interest rates rise. We still haven't seen credit spreads widen as much as we would like, but we expect that to happen. But we're seeing a lot of opportunities and without that, as you can see from our results, in infrastructure transactions that we did for military housing, significant transactions that we see also in our flow business and also in our secondary markets. So even with this tight spread environment, our financial guarantee is providing a lot of value.

Ameeta Lobo Nelson

Okay. And just looking at Puerto Rico, seeing mediation was extended again through April 2027. To what extent does the postelection landscape change previous assumptions on your timing process and recovery under the proposed PREPA plan?

Dominic Frederico

I don't think it changes much be honest with you. I think the path that they've taken from the perspective of the White House in terms of changing the council is still on path to get done sometime in the early part of next year. Obviously, we're more interested in the court cases and judge went lifting to stay on the administrative expense claim as to what's our revenue or what's our claim on that collateral. The control committee is what it is and what we release, we think on some sort of a timely basis probably somewhere in 2027.

Ameeta Lobo Nelson

Okay. And if I could just ask on capital return. Could you talk about the dividend versus buyback trade-off here? Now dividends have exceeded buybacks. Is there appetite to continue raising the dividend? Or is the preference still to reserve capital for buybacks when the window opens?

Dominic Frederico

We're actually looking at a lot of different alternatives in the capital management market. And as we make progress across those options, we will continue to update you. We maintain a buffer significant to ensure we ensure our ratings are stable. And obviously, that buffer was once again confirmed relative to the affirmation of our ratings at the end of this year by all 3 rating agencies. We look forward though, we like to see that buffer come out of more soft capital than hard capital to give us more options relative to what we do with hard capital in terms of growth of the business, potential return of the capital, depending on what the market looks like at the time.

We believe we're putting on ROEs today on the new business front, which is in target range of our cost of capital in excess of our cost of capital and we've got some unique opportunities there that with the buffer have to be concerned about where our level of capital is today. And therefore, as we look to manage more options on the capital, we'll update you by the end of the year and the fourth quarter as we look to change the mix of capital to give us the capital flexibility that we're looking for.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tommy McJoynt with KBW.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

The first one here, I appreciate you guys giving sort of an outlook or a guidance for the full year for PVP of $400 million. To the extent that you guys have a sort of line of sight into what next year looks like, do you feel like this year has been unusually strong? Do you feel like the pipeline is sufficient that 2027 could see even an increase in relative to this year, understanding some transactions can be lumpy in terms of whether they fall in 1 month of the next. But what's your line of sight like into next year is growth relative to this year?

Dominic Frederico

Tommy, I'll give you a couple of things. One, I'd be disappointed if we end the year at $400 million to read between the lines, anybody like the that. Number two, as we look to next year, we've made a lot of inroads relative to our new products, or new geographies. And we're continuing to get greater relationships and acceptance across a broader base of markets and products, so as we get counterparty relationships signed up, that opens up the opportunity for not only one product or one transaction or multiple transactions. And we're now seeing in the international markets, multiple transactions from the same countries. .

Number two, the type of business we're writing today is shorter term than our typical municipal business. So you're going to see a heavier contribution to earnings, a heavier contribution to a return. And therefore, we look at that as a flow business as we go into 2027, where we typically have sit back and wait for large transactions to materialize to have very good production years. We're looking for more flow, build a move box that will continue to increase over time. And once again, with statutory earnings, lower cap charges, higher earned premium we think have a very positive effect on the ROE of the company. As we look together, we get to our cost of capital over the next few years.

Robert Bailenson

Tom, I just want to add to Tommy's point and emphasize the fact that these new counterparty relationships that we're opening up in Europe and Australia are leading to multiple transactions within each counterparty. And as Dominic said, these transactions, especially in global structured finance are much shorter and the earnings impact is much quicker, the capital as we used much quicker as well. And also in U.S. pump finance, we're seeing large infrastructure opportunities building the pipeline into next year as well. So I'm very excited about how we end the year and also going into next year. .

Dominic Frederico

Yes. I think Tommy also is to remember that as you look at these counterparties, they're obviously very comfortable with the credit of insured guarantee as they not only do a transaction, they started expanding the transactions and the size and it's a real good confirmation of how we manage the company, how we maintain our ratings, the reputation we have in the marketplace.

Robert Bailenson

And to emphasize the fact these are large transactions, these counterparties are taking down, especially in structured finance.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

Okay. Got it. I appreciate all that. And actually, just to clarify, since some of the contracts are shorter duration. Historically, we had always looked at the UPR on the balance sheet as a sort of way to assess growth in the business. But with the shorter duration, does that mean that metric might not be the best want to look to when you think about your sort of future production numbers? .

Robert Bailenson

I'll say something and then Ben probably can jump in as well. I'll say that you have to look at both. I think UPR is a strong metric for what we look at is for future earnings, but you also just started especially in structured finance, looking at the earnings in that because that is actually increasing significantly as we continue to open up these new counterparties and multiple transactions in fund finance, core lending portfolios of banks, so that's going to become much more -- much -- a very important metric for you to look at as well.

Benjamin Rosenblum

I would echo what Rob said. I mean unearned premiums, obviously, our lifeblood. We have a little over $3.8 billion in deferred premium revenue, and that's great. But you'll see that while our deferred premium revenue stayed relatively stable over the last couple of quarters, our earned premium has continued to increase quarter-over-quarter. And that's really a reflection that Rob is right, that the structured finance deals are impacting our bottom line faster while -- even though the unearned premium isn't really going up the earned premium is.

Dominic Frederico

Yes, we look at scheduled earned premium is one of the barometers of growth and successful growth as long as that's increasing, it might not be adding to the UPR number on the balance sheet, which we still expect to rise as well because these contracts are being renewed and further extended and then new relationships with more contracts. So we think that's going to be a really good source of both term premium and our premium reserve.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

Okay. I appreciate that. And then going back to the capital discussion. Certainly, I think you guys well communicated the slowdown and the cadence of buybacks back in the early summer as you sort of seek out these growth opportunities, but just can you talk about how you sort of weigh that against the stock now is trading at sub-60% book value, sub-55% book value ex AOCI, so how does the valuation of the stock fit into your sort of thesis around how you think about deploying capital given the accretion you could get from buybacks?

Dominic Frederico

We realized that, that is an outstanding transaction that the company could do. But we have our strategy in terms of new business offer relative to the rating and the composition of the capital. We anticipate making inroads on the composition of capital through the end of the year and continuing into next year. At which point in time, we'll then have the flexibility right now our buffer and the reserve for new business made up of hard cap. .

As we switch out to soft capital and that the hard cap would then be there for either growth or return, I think you'll see a very different analysis being done. So we've got some issues we're dealing with relative to opportunities. And obviously, as we work through things like Brightline, which we are very pleased with the outcome that we expected then subcreditors having plan more equity into the deal. We're happy with our position. And as that now runs its way to bankruptcy court, we'll look at, once again, capital over and over again.

Each quarter, we take a hard will get it and see where we want to go and where our opportunities are. The Life Re business is going to take some factor as well, which we're very happy with. And as that runs its course through 2027 and towards the end of this year, you'll get a very clear insight as to where the capital is going and where we're using it for.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Geoffrey Dunn with Dowling & Partners. Jeffrey.

Geoffrey Dunn

With Brightline, what should we be watching for that would justify that exposure coming off the BIG list and getting upgraded internally?

Dominic Frederico

Internally, it could take a little bit of a while, but what you should look for them exisiting bankruptcy and therefore, solidifying the amount of new capital we've got. And then back to the actual performance of the railroad, the growth in revenues, the ability to now the operating expenses and debt service. Remember, the service is significantly less than it was before. And we are at the top of the stack, therefore, we think that this has got real opportunity to cure all their problems, and it already went in our books from BIG to BIG 1, so we're telling you that it's been more remote from us ever having to think about paying a loss.

Robert Bailenson

Yes. So we've already recognized that benefit coming from BIG 2 to BIG 1.

Geoffrey Dunn

Right. And then with respect to the shorter duration deals and the faster premium recognition, can you give a rough mix shift idea of what kind of mix of your earned premium were those type of deals maybe 2 years ago? Where are we today? And given the growth, can you give like a 5% band of where you think it's going to go? I'm trying to gauge the speed at which we can see that impact over the next couple of years?

Robert Bailenson

Yes. Rough numbers, I'll tell you, Jeff, I mean, 2 years ago, it was probably down 5%. Now it's up to -- really up to 27% year-to-date. So a shorter duration of business and structured finance is roughly 27% to 30% of the total. And I expect as we continue to grow that business, I think it's going to be even higher. So the fund finance business really was -- really, really made that go much faster, and we continue to grow in the fund finance business. So like I said, it's 30% of Structured Finance now and I expect that to grow -- it could go up 30% to 40%. .

Dominic Frederico

Adding into the supplement and analysis of where the earned premium comes from. So you can see kind of the impact this new product type and structured finance is going to have on earned premium. -- that's what.

Robert Bailenson

It's going to be a larger percentage of the total.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back to our host, Robert Tucker for closing remarks. .

Robert Tucker

Thank you, operator. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on today's call. If you have additional questions, please feel free to give us a call. Thank you very much.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day.