Super Group (SGHC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Revised Guidance and $150M Buyback

Key Takeaways

• Q3 2026 revenue increased 10% year over year to $611 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $165 million, representing a 27% margin.
• Customer-friendly sports results reduced the quarterly sports margin to 12.1%, versus a trailing 24-month average of 13.7%. Management estimated a roughly $40 million revenue impact and a $25 million adjusted EBITDA impact.
• Casino provided an offset to sports volatility, with casino wagering up 11% year over year. Sports wagering increased 4%, and average monthly active customers rose 9% to 6 million.
• Super Group revised its full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $2.525 billion to $2.575 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $720 million, assuming Q4 sports margin remains within its normal range.
• Africa revenue grew 17% to $262 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 23% to $88 million and a 34% margin. International revenue excluding the U.S. rose 9% to $344 million.
• The Board authorized a $150 million share repurchase program. Super Group ended Q3 with $602 million in cash and reported 70% year-to-date free cash flow conversion.

Core Financial Data

Business and Operating Performance

Casino remained the primary stabilizer during a softer sports quarter. Record casino wagers increased 11% year over year and 14% excluding the U.S. Management said it was not seeing a slowdown in iGaming customer activity.

Africa delivered revenue of $262 million, up 17%, and adjusted EBITDA of $88 million, up 23%. The regional adjusted EBITDA margin reached 34%. Sports wagering increased 6%, while casino wagering rose 21%. Management said customer-friendly results in August and September outweighed stronger sports margins in July.

International revenue increased 5%, or 9% excluding the U.S., to $344 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 24% to $93 million, and the margin expanded by more than 400 basis points despite higher U.K. taxes. Europe revenue grew 6%, led by 13% growth in the U.K.

North America revenue excluding the U.S. increased 10%. Canada excluding Ontario and Alberta grew 15%, supported by casino performance. Super Group completed its Alberta customer migration in early October and expects a more rational competitive environment than it experienced in Ontario.

September active customers reached 6.2 million as major European football leagues resumed. Management also cited positive African engagement from the new Manchester United partnership.

Management Guidance

Super Group revised its full-year 2026 outlook to:

• Revenue of $2.525 billion to $2.575 billion.
• Adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $720 million.

The guidance assumes Q4 sports margin remains within the company’s normal range. Management emphasized that sports outcomes remain outside its control, while wagering activity and the underlying business remain robust.

Management said Q4 started strongly. Casino continued to grow, and October produced Super Group’s highest sports margin of 2026.

For 2027, management expects marketing ratios to remain around 21% to 22%, reflecting continued reinvestment in organic growth. Detailed 2027 guidance will include only opportunities known at the time and will assume sports margin remains within the expected range.

Risks and Watchpoints

Sports-result volatility remains the most immediate earnings variable. Africa’s parlay-heavy customer base can produce larger swings than traditional sportsbooks, and management said the recycling of larger customer winnings can take longer in that market.

South Africa’s Treasury has discussed an additional 20% tax on gross gaming revenue, on top of existing provincial tax and VAT. Management stressed that this is not yet a concrete proposal and would require legislative, provincial and presidential approval. An update is expected with the February 2027 budget.

Several market launches depend on regulatory and tax developments. Namibia is now expected to launch in 2027, contingent on policy adoption and licensing. Rwanda’s timing depends partly on the tax framework, while Kenya requires a new licensing process.

Germany’s regulatory framework includes deposit limits and requires separate sports and casino wallets. Super Group has completed the technical work to separate the wallets, but management remains cautious about market performance.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Management attributed the revised 2026 guidance to Q3 sports outcomes rather than weakening iGaming demand. The company said casino engagement remains strong and year-to-date sports margin is still within its structural range.

Capital allocation priorities remain unchanged: invest first in organic growth, pursue external growth selectively at the right price, and return excess cash through regular or special dividends and share repurchases. The regular dividend remains the foundation of shareholder returns, while the new $150 million buyback provides additional flexibility.

New Zealand is a key 2027 opportunity. Super Group secured three of the 15 available casino licenses, each carrying an eight-year term and costing approximately $1 million annually. Management expects the regulated market to launch around mid-2027 and said resumed marketing could support growth without a new tax impact on adjusted EBITDA because the company already pays local taxes.

Other potential growth markets include Namibia, Rwanda, Kenya and Mozambique. Nigeria remains an existing early-stage market, while management said Germany could launch online slots following completion of the required wallet separation.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Complete Earnings Call Transcript

Management Remarks

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Super Group Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Webcast and Conference Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

I'd now like to hand the call over to Nkem Ojougboh, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Nkem Ojougboh

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Super Group's results for the third quarter 2026. During this call, Super Group may make comments of a forward-looking nature that is subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors discussed further in its SEC filings, which could cause the actual results to differ materially from historical results or from our forecast. We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements other than as required by law.

On today's call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are in addition to, and not a substitute for, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in the press release issued yesterday and available on the Investor Relations page of our website. We recommend that investors refer to the supplementary presentation posted to our website. Today, I'm joined by Neal Menashe, Chief Executive Officer; and Alinda Van Wyk, Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the call up for questions.

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Neal.

Neal Menashe

Thank you, Ink, and good morning, everyone. Super Group continues to deliver. After a record second quarter, Q3 was a softer sports quarter with favorable outcomes for our sports customers. But casino once again offset that volatility. Record casino wagers increased 11% year-over-year and 14% ex the U.S., providing predictable revenue that absorbs a softer sports quarter and supports ongoing growth.

Customer activity reflected its typical summer seasonality across European football. As the major leagues returned, engagement rebounded quickly, reaching 6.2 million active customers in the month of September. The start of the new football season also marked the launch of our Manchester United partnership. This agreement supplements Betway's exclusive partnership portfolio with the world's top football clubs and Man U strongly resonates with our African customers.

In Africa, revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $262 million and adjusted EBITDA was up 23% to $88 million with a robust EBITDA margin of 34%. Sports wages grew 6% year-over-year, while casino wagers were up 21% over the same period. Sports results were uneven during the quarter. A customer-friendly outcomes in August and September outweighed solid margins in July. Despite this volatility, year-to-date sports margin remains within our expected range.

Importantly, we believe that volatility is transient, but structural improvement driven by improved pricing and trading and a resilient parlay mix endure. Our Africa growth pipeline continues to develop. In Mozambique, we expect recent changes in online casino regulation to materially improve the commercial attractiveness of this market for us, which will further support our future growth prospects. We have successfully secured new casino licenses in Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia and both sports betting and casino licenses in Rwanda. We continue to actively pursue further opportunities.

In Namibia, delayed upcoming changes to the local regulatory regime mean we now expect to launch there in 2027, contingent on local policy adoption. Supercoin's establishment continues as we build a digital payment platform with utility extending beyond gaming. Foundations are in place. Customers have access to our wallet and the coin is now live on South Africa's 3 largest exchanges. The next phase is focused on payments and expanded utility, with additional wallet functionality expected to roll out this quarter and a full public launch planned for early 2027. We are also excited for the expansion of Supercoin beyond South Africa's borders.

International revenue grew 5% year-over-year; ex the U.S., it grew 9% to $344 million, while adjusted EBITDA grew 24% to $93 million. Margin expanded more than 400 basis points despite higher taxes in the U.K. We believe this performance highlights our disciplined marketing and leaner cost base at work. In Europe, revenue grew 6%, led by the U.K., up 13%. In North America, revenue grew 10%, excluding the U.S., while Canada, ex-Ontario and Alberta delivered 15% revenue growth, supported by strong casino performance.

In Alberta, customers are adjusting to the newly regulated market. Our migration successfully completed in early October, and we remain confident in the long-term opportunity in Alberta. Rest of World revenue increased 5% with New Zealand resilient at 3% during a mandatory marketing hiatus ahead of next year's regulation.

During the recent casino license auction, we secured 3 of the 15 available licenses. This positions us favorably in advance of expected regulated market launch in 2027 when marketing efforts can resume. Super Group's commitment to product advancements continues to set us apart. The advantages of owning or controlling our tech stack facilitate faster innovation and greater control over our road map. We continue to enhance our sportsbooks and casino offerings, adding new features and improvements that we believe raise the standards across our product suite.

With that, I'll turn it over to Alinda.

Alinda Van Wyk

Thank you, Neal. Total revenue for the third quarter was up 10% year-over-year, reaching $611 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 8% to $165 million, ending the quarter with a margin of 27%. We grew average monthly active customers by 9% year-over-year, reaching 6 million this quarter. Wagering momentum remained strong with total wagering up 11% for casino and 4% for sports. Customer-friendly sports results brought our sports margin down to 12.1% this quarter, well below our trailing 24-month average of 13.7%. This impacted revenue by approximately $40 million and adjusted EBITDA by around $25 million. Importantly, our year-to-date sports margin stands at 13.8%, keeping us comfortably within our target structural range.

Our financial performance is built on a disciplined approach. We concentrate marketing spend in our highest return markets while continuously refining our trading, payments and technology operations. At the same time, we keep a firm grip on costs, navigating higher gaming taxes without losing sight of our strategic investment priorities.

Turning to guidance. We need to account for the impact of quarter 3 sports results. With that in mind, we are revising our full year 2026 guidance with total revenue between $2.525 billion and $2.575 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is revised to be between $700 million and $720 million, assuming fourth quarter sports margin remains within our normal range. Sports results are outside of our control, but sports wagering remains robust and our business remains strong.

Quarter 4 is off to a great start. Casino continues to grow, and our sports margin for October was the highest it's been all year. Our balance sheet remains strong. We ended this quarter with $602 million in cash, up 30% year-over-year with the year-to-date free cash flow conversion of 70%. Over the last 12 months, we have returned approximately $223 million to our shareholders, including around $25 million in dividends this quarter. Neal will further address our capital allocation priorities.

With that, I will now hand back to Neal.

Neal Menashe

Thank you, Alinda. Just 9 months into the year, our EBITDA has already almost surpassed full year 2025, which itself was a record year for Super Group. We entered the fourth quarter with strong momentum. The football season is in full swing. Casino is performing. We maintain a robust product pipeline and our operating model is increasingly efficient. Our earnings convert to cash at a high rate, and we have a strong balance sheet, a combination that gives us real flexibility.

Our framework is really straightforward. First, we invest in the business and in organic growth, including new markets because that is where we see the best returns. Second, we pursue external growth selectively and only where returns clear a high hurdle. Third, we return excess cash to shareholders. Our regular dividend remains the foundation of that, and we intend to grow it over time. Today, we are taking the next step under this framework. Our Board has authorized a $150 million share repurchase program. We will execute it with discipline. And while we are not committing to a pace or a price, we will keep a strong balance sheet throughout, so we can move quickly when the right opportunity arises. We are really well positioned and confident in the direction of the business and expect to finish 2026 strongly, carrying momentum into 2027.

Operator, please can you open the call up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question comes from the line of Jordan Bender of Citizens.

Question-and-Answer Session

Jordan Bender

To start on guidance. If I adjust for the sport outcomes in the quarter and I see where the midpoint went to, it still implies that there might be maybe a delta between that number and the midpoint of guidance. So can you maybe just talk about how you're getting to the revenue number that you guys laid out? And as I look to iCasino growth, it did decelerate 11% in the third quarter from 15% in the second and 20% in the first. So are you seeing any softening around kind of that iGaming customer?

Neal Menashe

So firstly, obviously, our new guide reflects the impact from the customer-friendly sports outcomes in Q3 and obviously, preserves the EBITDA upside from the original guide, right? What is key is our underlying business remains strong, casino customer engagement, year-to-date sports margin remains within our structural range. And one thing from my side, and to add on that, if you recall from our September 2025 Investor Day, we are way ahead of our targets.

Alinda Van Wyk

Yes. And just to conclude that, we're definitely not seeing a slowdown in the iGaming business at all. It's just to allow for the Q3 sports margin that had an impact. And we're still within the guide -- midway through the guide that we've previously communicated.

Jordan Bender

Perfect. And then to follow up, Neal, you touched on the share repurchase program there for a minute, and you kind of made comments around you'll be more opportunistic around using that. But as you kind of think about excess capital and returning capital to shareholders, can you just kind of talk through your rankings around utilizing cash through dividends, through buybacks, investing in the business, kind of what's your new priority list with the repurchase program now out there?

Alinda Van Wyk

Yes. Our priorities are unchanged as previously also communicated. Discipline first, but we remain flexible and with that amount of cash gives us that flexibility. First, we always invest in the business for organic growth with a clear path to return. Second, we consider external growth opportunities, but really always at the right price, and that will really supplement our business. And thirdly, if we then have excess cash, we are really focused on giving back to our shareholders in the form of special dividends, quarterly dividends or buybacks. So it would be in that priority.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Clark Lampen of BTIG.

William Lampen

I have 2, if I may. The first is sort of a minor clarification, I guess, on Jordan's question around guidance. Neal and Alinda, I didn't hear you guys call this out, but a few of your peers have mentioned unfavorable October sports results as part of their Q3 and sort of Q4 framework. Is there anything notable that you guys have seen thus far in the quarter that's sort of worth calling out?

And then the second question that I have is related to 2027. Neal, in your prepared remarks, I think I counted at least 5 market launches where the operating backdrop and I guess, the sort of regulatory regime has been favorable and sort of opens the door to entry. Could you give us -- I think we have a decent handle on the organic growth trajectory. Could you give us a feel for the markets that are in focus near term for a 2027 launch that could be contributors?

Neal Menashe

Okay. All right. So first of all, let's start with October. October was a great month for sports. So overall, the month saw, as Alinda mentioned, our highest margins this year. I think it's important to even understand we've got a large African parlay business, right? Obviously, together with our more traditional international book makes us quite unique when you compare us to our listed operators. In practice, that means we can see days when a loss in Africa is offset by a profit for international or vice versa, right? So you can't always extrapolate other operators' results on us. That's the first thing, right?

And when it, then, comes to market launches, obviously, I mentioned Namibia that we were hoping to do Q4, but obviously, their regime is changing a bit. So we are all at the point where we are ready to go operationally. And now it's just about waiting for them to issue the new license. So as soon as we get the new license, we can go. So we're hoping in 2027. We mentioned other ones like Rwanda, where we've managed to get casino and sports licenses. There, we have to work on the tax framework to see what's happening. There are all other markets, if you go from the bottom of Africa up, Zimbabwe, et cetera, are all starting to come. And also importantly, we've also got Mozambique, which I did mention, they've changed, finally changed the casino tax regime there, which means that we can actually no longer have to withhold tax on casino winnings, which means we can now compare favorably with the other operators.

And then finally, just on the international side, you notice it has finally taken years and years for New Zealand. We finally have secured 3 out of the 15 licenses there. So we're really excited about that, and that should be coming in probably mid-2027. And lastly, just one more point -- sorry, one more point I'd add. Germany, we finally have got these online slots. So hopefully, let's see, we should be going live there soon. That has been working itself, and let's see how that market then performs.

William Lampen

Is Nigeria still part of your road map for 2027? Or has there been anything that sort of changed that maybe has delayed that as a priority or opportunity?

Neal Menashe

Yes. No, that is an existing market where we're still in the early innings, but obviously, we're happy with our progress. The team on the ground is doing well, and we're just really happy where we are. Remember, we're online first in that market. So we have some more local products and payments to put in there. But improved technology product team and bench strength, we are geared up really well for that market.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Hickey of Benchmark.

Michael Hickey

Just on '27, obviously, you have a lot of momentum here in your business. I'm just curious if you could kind of rank maybe in terms of growth where you're most confident, Neal or Alinda? And then also curious how you think about the World Cup as a growth comparable next year? I think most of the upside was on adding new players, but sort of how you think about that? And then some of the events, Neal, I am less familiar with, the Men's Cricket, and I think Rugby World Cups are next year. You've got the Africa Cup again and then Women's soccer World Cup. Just curious if those will be big catalysts for you or not.

Alinda Van Wyk

Thank you, Mike, for your question. Keeping in mind that we don't want to share too much about 2027 yet. We remain within that strategy to be the best operating efficient machine we can be to expand -- have that further margin expansion. But our growth opportunities is very diversified, like Neal just went through the Africa and the international strategy for organic growth. And then if we go back to our capital allocation, we really take a bit of that money that we have to reinvest back in our business. So our marketing ratios, we keep within the range of 21% and 22% for 2027 also to show that this commitment to grow those markets. But the real success is in the efficiencies of the business. And that's why we continue to quarter-on-quarter to see this margin expansion.

Neal Menashe

And I'll add, obviously, the World Cup did help us in June and July. But remember, it was the wrong time zone. So it doesn't have that effect on our international customers and our African customers because the times were wrong. But yes, you've got all from the World Cup, Rugby, et cetera, coming this year. So it all just add extra content to our ecosystem. So we're excited about that.

And remember, we also talk about capital allocation. We talk about inorganic growth. Obviously, we're always looking for inorganic growth, but the price has to be right. And when we find the right one, we will definitely execute on it. So for us, we've got all these levers to pull. But most importantly is, again, what we have achieved this year, especially is the cross-pollination of international and Africa together. We are one business. But anything we see that works well, we can use that in each of the markets we're in. And it's all about being local in each of the markets and then with this overall tech stack that supports it.

Michael Hickey

This is a quick follow-up, Neal. The friendly outcomes, not unusual in your business. I think you had a big one last fourth quarter, '25 tied to the Africa Cup. And of course, post that, we saw really strong recycling activity from your players. It sounds like October has been strong. I'm just curious how much of that you think is the recycling of the sports winnings from 3Q into your sports and casino business. And if that recycling activity has been sort of normal or if you think maybe given the amount of parlay exposure and the size of the winnings that we could have more duration in that recycling cycle?

Neal Menashe

So listen, we run different sportsbooks, right? Especially international is very different to Africa, right? So international looks obviously like other operators when you compare us. But obviously, our Africa parlay is quite unique, right, because what it does is parlays are sometimes 10 or more legs with small stakes and then -- but they can get large wins. So even when the big winners come, they keep placing small bets relative to what they want. So the money comes back in Africa over a much longer period.

So that is why we occasionally see bigger swings than our peers and it will take us a little bit more time to get it. And of course, then they go and recycle into casino, et cetera. So -- but overall, it always -- we always manage over time to claw it back. It just takes slightly longer in Africa, right? And -- but I suppose that is the brilliance of the African model and why the structural hold, retention and margins are so much higher than our international side.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour of Barclays.

Brandt Montour

Sorry if I missed this topic earlier on. Can you guys just talk a little bit about some of the news over the quarter about proposed South African gambling tax. What's the latest there? And how are you thinking about a potential earnings impact if something like that was to come to pass?

Neal Menashe

Okay. So as a reminder, just a reminder, there's currently a 6.5% provincial tax in South Africa and a 15% VAT, which goes to the state. So this probably comes in at just under 20% of GGR. Treasury had put some discussion paper out a while ago. We are talking about additional 20% tax on GGR on top of all of it. But remember, it's not a concrete proposal yet. There's currently a lot more industry consultation. Any update on this is obviously expected in the February 2027 budget.

But importantly, a proposal is not law and the new national tax would require legislative, provincial, and presidential approval. And the numbers are out there, so we're going to be able to struggle to work out what the impact will be from that. But this increase won't be immaterial, but our business obviously is strong, and we've been navigating this for 3 decades. But there's quite a road to go on there between the provincial and the state.

Brandt Montour

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. The -- in terms of Kenya in '27. Can you just give us an update on that market and your thoughts around potential timing and anything else -- any other developments in that -- into that market over the last few months?

Neal Menashe

So basically, Kenya, I mean, it's funny, before we listed, we were in Kenya and then they increased the taxes and we actually ended up giving our license back. But now what's happened, it has become the cheapest regulatory regime in Africa tax-wise. Now we have to go through all the process again and reapply. So we've reapplied and we're hoping in 2027 to be able to turn it on again. So I suppose that's just a yes and rather just keeping all the licenses we acquire over time.

And also Supercoin is also going to be getting the Kenyan Shilling stablecoin. We're hoping to get there as well on that. But really, when it comes to all of these markets, Kenya, Rwanda, et cetera, we're patient before we relaunch. We understand the regulatory and tax environment, capital controls, product, finding the right local people and everything must work together. And when it works together, that's when we start executing our marketing machine.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl of Craig-Hallum.

Ryan Sigdahl

I want to start with Alberta, evidence, you guys -- province, excuse me, you guys, took a more phased regulated launch here in October. But can you talk through kind of key takeaways from that transition for you guys and then what you're seeing in that market?

Neal Menashe

Sure. So obviously, we've done a good job or the team have done a good job transitioning our customers to the newly regulated market, which obviously happened in October. The customers are adjusting obviously to the new changes in the product environment, such as the removal of autoplay features. We're keeping a close eye on it. We're making improvements every day, every week. The marketing machine is going to start resuming its rollout. We've moved all our customers across on to the new regulated platform. And overall, we expect it to be more rational -- I mean, a more rational competitive environment than what we found in Ontario. So let's see how it goes, and we are well-placed there.

Ryan Sigdahl

Maybe some users, monthly active users. I appreciate Slide 10 with the monthly cadence. I think that's helpful from a seasonality standpoint to show. 6.2 million in September, are you willing to say what it was in October, at least directionally if it was higher? And then kind of break out, I know you had some tax changes in a couple of smaller African countries, Malawi, et cetera. But just kind of piecemeal the low-value customer churn with kind of some higher value additions, et cetera, the puts stakes within that MAC number.

Neal Menashe

All right. So first of all, what you are seeing is summer seasonality. So remember, the 6 million customers is almost up 9% on last year. We have got persistency of our cohorts continues to be as strong as ever. We keep layering the cake. And I suppose the key driver for us has always been in this business for the last 2.5 decades is the super persistence and yearly profitable revenue per customer. So we're not chasing these unprofitable customers simply to maximize our MAC.

Alinda Van Wyk

Yes, sorry, just to add a bit more color there, we closed September at 6.2 million customers. So remember, we report on the average for the quarter. And as we alluded to, October is off to a great start.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer.

Jed Kelly

Just looking at your customer acquisition efficiency, if I kind of look at like where your guidance is going to shake out, how you're performing, it looks like marketing is going to be flat to down this year. Just can you talk about how sustainable that is and what's driving that and how we should think about your customer acquisition?

Neal Menashe

Okay. So I'll start there. One of the important drivers of our business has been besides the operating efficiencies is our marketing efficiencies. So it's a big number we are spending every year. And we found some areas where we can be more efficient. And for us is do we have enough in our marketing budget in order to compete, and we absolutely do. There are over $500 million or even more, we absolutely do. So now the question is finding even more homes for it. So I mean, some of our competitors are less than 15%, some are less than 18%. So we, around 20% to 21%, 22%, we are more than happy with how those returns are coming and how those cohorts are paying back over time.

Alinda Van Wyk

And our focus is always to optimize marketing spend and to move it to areas where we see the returns. I think as well, it can't be just a percentage all the time. You have to look at the monetary value because the revenue keeps on growing. But we've always been a business about acquiring customers with organic approach and with the funds that we generate to invest it back in our business.

Jed Kelly

Great. And then just on the buyback, can you talk about sort of implementing a buyback versus measuring the float on your shares and how you kind of try to thread that needle with buyback in your current float?

Alinda Van Wyk

So let's just recap the Board did approve a $150 million buyback, and they wanted the buyback to be meaningful, but still we need to remain disciplined. So this is the first driver for us. And we -- with this, it gives us the ability to still be opportunistic in other areas with using this cash, like Neal alluded to organic investments and M&A. We can always revisit the size with the Board at any point in time and if the circumstances materially change. But keep in mind, our regular dividend remains the foundation of our shareholders' returns. In the last 12 months, we've returned more than $220 million to the shareholders, and that's quite impressive.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Weber with Canaccord Genuity.

Matthew Weber

I just want to ask about New Zealand. I believe you previously said that you expected regulation to have little effect on profitability in that market. Now that you know the auction price and have the right to apply for the 3 licenses, does that assessment still hold? And then are you able to comment on how much of your current New Zealand's casino revenue comes from brands that you expect to take forward?

Neal Menashe

Okay. So let's start there, we've obviously operated in New Zealand for over 2 decades. And in the last year or 2, we haven't been able to market there, right, because there's certain marketing restrictions. So when they came out with these 15 licenses, we decided to get 3. So our 3 top brands can now go live and continue there. And just to remind everyone the it's an 8-year license that costs about $1 million a year. But all the other taxes of that market, we already pay.

So for us, as we transition them to the new software, and we can go and start marketing as we used to. So actually, we're really excited about it because we've been in no man's land now. We weren't allowed to market. And yet we still preserved our revenue there, which is how strong our brand presence is there. And now, I think about it only 15 licenses, and of which we are 3 out of 15 of that, so about 20%. So we think there's lots of opportunity there.

Alinda Van Wyk

And maybe just to add there, keep in mind that we've already been paying taxes in New Zealand for the last couple of years. So we won't have that impact on EBITDA, but we can now also turn on marketing, which we haven't been able to do, so which will have a favorable impact on the growth.

Matthew Weber

Got it. That's helpful color. And then maybe if I can just on the United Kingdom, it seems like another quarter of solid growth and share gains there. Just how durable do you see those share gains over the course of 2027? And do you expect any material impact from the new duty on most remote sports bets when it takes effect next April?

Neal Menashe

Yes. So U.K. is still good for us. Remember, I still think we're still under-indexed there. All our competitors now, they've even also increased rates in the shops as well for the slot machines. So I think that everyone is reading into how they can make this market work. For us, it worked. We're efficient. We've combined our businesses there. So we're really seeing this operating efficiency. And over time, the marketing rates are coming down.

So for us -- and remember, key, a lot of our sponsorships come from English Premier League. So we're really visible there. We're improving our product there. So for us, we have navigated that really, really well. And we've got a disciplined marketing team and obviously leaner cost base. All of that leads to be able to take those extra taxes into account.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chad Beynon of Macquarie.

Chad Beynon

Given that you're not as focused on the U.S. OSB and iCasino market, how are you thinking about potential prediction market opportunities here stateside or in other markets as well?

Neal Menashe

So listen, for us, it's already when we exited the U.S., we really focused on Canada and our international markets and in Africa. And in most of our markets, actually all of them, most of them, they basically, prediction markets are gambling. They all have to be regulated and pay the local taxes. So the truth is we're not -- we don't have a predictions product. We are focused clearly on our sportsbook and our online casinos, which is what we built over the last year. And that's where we are able to literally compete head-on with all of our competitors.

Chad Beynon

And then, Alinda, you kind of touched on this in terms of sponsorship and marketing, but I just wanted to ask directly on the Man U sponsorship. So you talked about MAUs increasing in the last couple of months against that average. But notwithstanding the current team's results, which will hopefully and most likely improve as we get through the season, how are you measuring success with that sponsorship at this point?

Alinda Van Wyk

Yes. The partnership started with the new season, obviously, in this quarter, and we are seeing positive engagement from our customers, particularly in Africa. I think last quarter, we called out that in Africa alone, there's more than a quarter of -- 250 million fans in Africa alone. So the engagement is just big, big for us in Africa. And importantly, this is a long-term investment in the brand, in our brand and the strength that supports the sustainable customer growth. So across all our key markets. And this is exactly what this exclusivity brings us with these partnerships.

Neal Menashe

And then I will just add in here that, yes, so I will just add in, obviously the results on the pitch do not change the value of Man City's part of the exclusive deal, right? Probably more favorable for our sportsbook when Man United draws or loses. But otherwise, yes, it is excellent.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bernie McTernan of Needham.

Bernard McTernan

Can you -- Neal, can you -- I don't think I've heard you mention Germany before. Can you just detail that opportunity and maybe what's changing there and why now?

Neal Menashe

I mean, I've done it probably over the last 4 years, kept mentioning Germany. And basically, Germany moved to a regulated regime, and they forced us to have separate wallets for casino and sports. But when we built our software, it was always built with one wallet. So it's taken us a little bit of time to actually get there to be able to separate the wallet. And now finally, we can operate with casino separately on a separate wallet. So let's see how it goes. The regulatory regime they're still very tough because they've got deposit limits, et cetera. But because we have done this sportsbook and done all the work, we have done this extra work to decouple the 2 wallets. So let's see how that goes.

Bernard McTernan

Okay. Got it. And then just a follow-up on guidance philosophy now that we're -- that there could be a couple of potential new markets coming next year. Should we expect you to start the year with any of those launches in the guidance? Or is it just going to be kind of steady state and that would be incremental if they do come to fruition?

Alinda Van Wyk

I mean we will communicate in detail the drivers of our guidance in 2027 when we come out with guidance. But the key drivers will remain the same as what we've had in 2026. What we know at that point in time, we will guide for. It will be strictly organic growth. There will be no aggressive persistency assumptions, and we will remain -- we talked a lot about this marketing discipline. So anything over about 19%, 20%, we will see as investment back into the business. And we will assume our sports margin will be within our expected range, which is always a tricky one. We will include, however, anything that we already have launched in 2026, such as Alberta, which will have new tax regime, et cetera, that will be in the guide.

Operator

Thank you. I'd now like to hand the call back to Neal for closing remarks.

Neal Menashe

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. We are really proud of the team's execution, and we remain focused on delivering against our strategy. We look forward to speaking to you all again soon.

Operator

Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.