Intrepid Potash (IPI) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Trio Output and Guidance Rise

Key Takeaways

• Third-quarter sales from continuing operations were approximately flat year over year at $51 million, while net income increased to $1.7 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, from $0.7 million, or $0.05 per share.
• Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations rose to $11.7 million from $10.7 million. Year-to-date operating cash flow increased to $50.5 million from $37.3 million.
• Trio production increased 19% year over year. Higher output and operating leverage reduced cost of goods sold per ton by 13% and lifted Trio gross margin by 33%.
• Intrepid raised its full-year 2026 Trio production guidance by 10,000 tons. Management expects 2027 production of 320,000 to 330,000 tons, supported by approximately $16 million of planned investment.
• The company ended the quarter with $152.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, $9.1 million in short-term investments and no debt. It repurchased 88,000 shares for $3 million under its $50 million authorization.
• The USDA selected Intrepid’s proposed sulfate of potash project for approximately $139 million of proposed matching funding. The planned facility would have about 220,000 tons of annual capacity, but remains subject to grant conditions and a final investment decision targeted for late 2027.

Key Financial Data

Business and Operating Performance

Trio

Trio production rose 19% year over year, primarily due to improved performance at the East mine. Operating hours increased 5%, while tons produced per operating hour rose approximately 20% as equipment availability, downtime and productivity improved.

Higher production improved fixed-cost absorption. Cost of goods sold per ton declined 13%, helping Trio gross margin increase 33% year over year. Sales reached $19.1 million, versus $18.1 million a year earlier, as sales volumes remained flat and the average net realized price increased 1.5%.

Management characterized the improvement in Trio pricing as structural, citing broader recognition of low-chloride potassium, magnesium and sulfur nutrition. Global sulfur constraints are also supporting the market, while Intrepid does not need to purchase sulfur feedstock because Trio contains naturally occurring sulfate sulfur.

Potash

Potash sales declined to $31.3 million from $32.5 million. Sales volume fell to 59,000 tons from 62,000 tons, while the average net realized selling price increased 3.4% to $394 per ton.

Production decreased 17% after Intrepid delayed the Moab harvest to allow additional pond evaporation. Management expects to recover the affected tons by year-end and said the decision should support higher Moab production and lower unit costs in 2027.

Potash gross margin declined because production was weighted toward the higher-cost HB and Wendover sites. Management said unit costs at those individual operations are improving, although the site mix obscured that progress in consolidated cost figures.

Management Guidance

• Full-year 2026 Trio production guidance was increased by 10,000 tons.
• Full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised to approximately $45 million from approximately $40 million, partly to begin 2027 growth projects early.
• Intrepid plans to invest approximately $16 million in Trio during 2027. Management expects the initiative to increase annual production by about 30,000 tons above first-half 2026 run rates and generate an internal rate of return of approximately 30%.
• Management expects full-year 2027 Trio production of 320,000 to 330,000 tons. The company also sees potential for another 100,000 tons of annual production with modest incremental investment beyond 2027.
• Intrepid plans approximately $20 million of potash mine development spending in 2027. The project is intended to sustain annual production 20,000 to 30,000 tons above prior-year levels, with an expected return of approximately 30%.
• Management said total 2027 capital expenditure would be below a simple addition of the 2026 capital budget and the two announced growth investments. Formal guidance is expected next quarter.
• Management expects healthy fertilizer demand through the first half of 2027, supported by improved grower sentiment, balanced inventories and potential supply constraints.

Risks and Watch Items

• Potash demand and pricing remain exposed to regional and seasonal variability, global trade flows and negotiations for China’s annual potash contract.
• Congestion at Baltic ports could constrain exports from Russia and Belarus. Management cited estimates of up to 1.5 million tons of affected fourth-quarter supply, but the duration remains uncertain.
• Elevated agricultural input costs continue to encourage disciplined purchasing by growers.
• Current Trio production rates should not be annualized without considering scheduled maintenance and asset turnarounds.
• The proposed SOP facility remains subject to completion of the USDA award process, applicable grant conditions, customer and market assessments, final capital and cost estimates, and a final investment decision.
• The Wendover Lithium definitive feasibility study has experienced some timing movement, although management said engineering and advanced offtake discussions continue.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Management said Trio pricing gains reflect more than temporary sulfur-market disruption. It sees increasing recognition of magnesium, sulfate sulfur and low-chloride potassium as a structural demand driver, particularly for specialty crops.

On production economics, management said most incremental Trio tons should carry marginal costs while benefiting from fixed-cost absorption. Potash mine development is expected to provide higher-grade material and more output from a largely similar cost base.

The company cautioned that the second-half 2026 Trio run rate benefited from lighter major-maintenance activity. The 2027 production range therefore emphasizes sustainable and predictable output rather than annualizing a single quarter.

Management confirmed that the proposed SOP project could use standard and fine langbeinite as an input without a Mannheim process. If approved, the project would provide a higher-value outlet for Trio fines and could support further Trio production growth.

Intrepid said share repurchases are a core part of its capital allocation framework rather than a residual use of cash. The company intends to preserve approximately $50 million of liquidity for cyclical downturns and roughly $35 million for working capital and cash-flow variability before allocating excess capital to growth investments and repurchases.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Complete Earnings Call Transcript

Management Remarks

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference moderator. Welcome to the Intrepid Potash Q3 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Schultz, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.

Ryan Schultz

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Intrepid's third quarter 2026 results. With me today are Kevin Crutchfield, our Chief Executive Officer; Zach Adams, our Vice President of Sales and Marketing; Rick Kim, our Vice President of Operations; and Jason Tremblay, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before I turn the call over to Kevin, I want to remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about future business and financial expectations. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor from civil litigation for such forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly from those projected in today's forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties, including the risks described in our periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. Further, this call will include the discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures.

Reconciliation of these measures to the closest GAAP financial measure is included in our earnings press release and corresponding SEC filings, which are available at intrepidpotash.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin.

Kevin Crutchfield

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. On last quarter's call, I discussed the 3 pillars of our own value creation strategy: execution, opportunity, and capital discipline. We made good progress on all 3 of these fronts during the third quarter. With respect to our execution, we increased production in Trio during the third quarter. This operating performance supports a 10,000 ton increase in our full year 2026 Trio production guidance and positions us to target annual production of more than 300,000 tons, a goal we didn't expect to achieve until sometime in 2027.

We're acutely focused on the reliability and predictability of our operations, and we're pleased with the improving track record that we're establishing. Rick will discuss the operating drivers behind this progress shortly. With respect to opportunity as the only U.S.-based producer of muriate of potash and 1 of only 2 global producers of langbeinite, the mineral we market as Trio, we see significant potential to unlock value through organic growth investment.

In potash, our opportunity lies in our ability to increase production while moving down the cost curve through operational excellence. We expect to lower production costs, and combined with our transportation cost advantage in our core markets and the diversity of our offerings, we expect to drive profitable growth in our potash business. Trio's combination of low chloride potassium, magnesium, and sulfate gives us a differentiated platform for growth. We believe that potential growth in demand for sulfur nutrition could support this opportunity over time. Zach will discuss the market backdrop for the products in more detail shortly.

We believe consistent execution, rigorous cost controls, and strategic organic growth investments can unlock the earnings potential of our existing assets, driving profitability and improved free cash flow conversion. While cyclical, the domestic market for agricultural nutrient is large, and third-party industry forecasts generally anticipate growth over the coming years. Importantly, as we've seen in recent years, the fertilizer market is highly sensitive to global geopolitical disruptions and thus, a matter of national security. As such, Intrepid is a well-positioned domestic critical mineral producer with attractive production assets in close proximity to key U.S. growing regions.

Against this backdrop, as we announced on October 26, the USDA selected our proposed sulfate of potash, or SOP, project near Carlsbad, New Mexico, for approximately $139 million and proposed matching funding through its FIELDS program. Based on current project plans, the facility would have annual production capacity of approximately 220,000 tons. If constructed, it would introduce a new product to our portfolio, complementing Trio and potash and expanding our presence in specialty fertilizer markets. This could be a pivotal project for Intrepid, allowing us to turn American minerals into a fertilizer product American farmers need.

The project is in the advanced stages of planning and evaluation but remain subject to completion of the award process, fulfillment of all applicable grant conditions, and a final investment decision, which we're currently targeting for late 2027. As we continue our evaluation, we remain focused on disciplined capital deployment and generating attractive long-term returns on invested capital. We look forward to sharing additional details as the project advances. Our operational improvements and the constructive selling price environment contributed to the solid cash flow we generated through the first 9 months of this year. The cash flow, combined with the proceeds from the sale of our South Ranch asset in the second quarter, puts us in a financial position that gives us multiple pathways to shareholder value creation.

Jason will review our capital allocation framework in more detail shortly, but I want to outline our two-pronged returns-focused strategy for deploying capital. First, we've identified several attractive organic growth opportunities within our existing asset base. We're in the final stages of evaluating capital investments designed to increase production volumes and lower unit costs across both segments. Jason will discuss the 2 principal projects we plan to pursue in 2027. We believe these investments can generate attractive returns and support sustained growth over the next several years. Also on the organic growth front, our development partners continue to advance the Wendover Lithium project as they work to complete their definitive feasibility study. Discussions with potential off-takers are also in the advanced stages.

In addition to growth investments, we're returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases. During the quarter, we repurchased shares under our $50 million share repurchase authorization. We would plan to accelerate the utilization of this program depending on how far below intrinsic value we believe our shares are trading. While we purchased a limited number of shares in the third quarter, over the past 5 weeks, we've accelerated our repurchasing activity, bringing the total shares we bought since the end of June to approximately 88,000. Share repurchases are a core component of our returns-focused approach to capital allocation, not a residual use of cash. We'll continue to weigh every dollar of capital, whether directed to share repurchases, improvements to our existing operations, or potential new growth projects, against the returns it can generate for shareholders, with a clear priority on compounding per share value over time.

Before I turn it over to Zach, I'd like to extend a special thanks to all of our employees for the work they've led over the last couple of years. By working together, we've increased our production in both Trio and potash. We substantially reduced our cost in Trio and are working similarly on our potash cost structure. As a result of their good work, our assets are performing much better, more predictably and reliably as demonstrated by increasing levels of profitability over the last several quarters.

I'll close by noting the 3 pillars I outlined earlier, execution, opportunity, and capital discipline are converging into a cohesive value creation framework for Intrepid. We're making good progress formulating that framework, and we see an opportunity to generate significant returns on invested capital through organic growth investment, share repurchases, and operational execution. As that work matures, we look forward to sharing more detail with you over the coming quarters.

Now I'll turn the call over to Zach for a closer look at demand, pricing and the market outlook for potash and Trio.

Zachry Adams

Thank you, Kevin. I'll provide additional context on the market environment for potash and Trio and how we are thinking about demand heading into year-end and the spring application season. During the third quarter, pricing for both potash and Trio increased over the prior year period, reflecting the supportive market environment. As we move through the last quarter of 2026 potash pricing has remained stable, and our order books for both potash and Trio are well subscribed, giving us a high level of visibility heading into the end of the year. Global potash producer inventories remain balanced supported by strong demand across key markets, including Brazil, China, and Southeast Asia throughout 2026.

Looking ahead, we are monitoring factors that could tighten the supply/demand balance in early 2027. In particular, congestion at Baltic ports is currently constraining exports from Russia and Belarus. If these shipping constraints persist into next year, they could limit available supply and provide further support for the market. We are also monitoring reports that negotiations have started on the next annual potash contract in China, where another early settlement could support continued shipment activity and help keep global supply and demand balances tight. Global sulfur supply constraints are contributing to higher input costs for some sulfate of potash producers, putting pressure on operating rates and availability. A tighter market for low-chloride potassium fertilizers could support demand for Trio. With sulfur constraints extending beyond sulfate of potash to other sulfur-containing fertilizers, Trio's sulfate sulfur component provides an attractive value proposition for growers heading into spring.

Trio is a unique product that supplies 3 essential plant nutrients, low-chloride potassium, magnesium, and sulfate in a naturally occurring mineral. Current supply conditions could enhance the appeal of that combination. Importantly, the sulfur in Trio occurs naturally within the langbeinite mineral we mine and is immediately available to the plants in the sulfate form. We do not need to purchase sulfur feedstock to produce Trio, reducing our exposure to the feedstock constraints affecting some other fertilizer producers. We believe this positions Trio well to serve growers seeking low chloride potassium, magnesium, and sulfur nutrition.

Looking ahead to spring 2027, grower sentiment has improved although elevated input costs continue to encourage disciplined purchase decisions. Demand will be subject to regional and seasonal variation but we believe growers remain focused on maximizing yields and making effective nutrient investments. Against that backdrop, we expect continued healthy fertilizer demand through the first half of 2027. With that market context, I'll turn the call over to Rick to discuss our operating performance and the initiatives supporting our increased production outlook.

Richard Kim

Thanks, Zach. I'll focus on the operating improvements behind our third quarter production gains and the work underway to improve reliability, efficiency, and unit costs across our operations. At our potash operations, we are focused on continuing to increase production while maintaining spending discipline. On a year-to-date basis, we have held total spending approximately flat while increasing output allowing us to spread fixed costs across more tons resulting in lower unit production costs.

In our HB Mine, improvements in pond management and mill recovery have contributed to increases in production volume. These changes are helping us recover additional product that otherwise would have been lost as waste. We deliberately delayed the start of the harvest season at Moab to allow additional evaporation in our ponds. After evaluating several operating scenarios, we determined that this timing would better support long-term production by adding more tons of inventory.

While this decision reduced third quarter production, we expect to recover those tons by year-end. We also expect the additional evaporation to support higher production at Moab in 2027 and a corresponding reduction in unit costs. Decisions like this reflect our focus on optimizing performance across our operations.

Turning to our Trio segment. Production increased 19% year-over-year during the third quarter, driven largely by continued improvements in operating performance at the East mine. Our team is increasing equipment availability, reducing downtime and improving productivity. Year-over-year, operating hours increased by 5%, while tons per operating hour increased by approximately 20%. We believe these improvements provide a sustainable foundation for further production growth. Higher production improved operating leverage and contributed to a 13% year-over-year reduction in cost of goods sold per ton. Together with higher realized selling prices, these improvements supported stronger segment gross margin.

As Kevin noted, we are increasing our full year 2026 Trio production guidance by 10,000 tons. Our focus is on sustaining these gains while continuing to improve reliability, productivity, and unit costs. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jason to review our third quarter financial results and outlook.

Jason Tremblay

Thank you, Rick. Third quarter sales from continuing operations were roughly flat with the prior year quarter at $51 million. Gross margin from continuing operations was also in line with last year's third quarter at $10 million. Net income from continuing operations improved to $1.7 million or $0.13 per diluted share from $700,000 or $0.05 per diluted share last year.

Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations increased to $11.7 million from $10.7 million last year. As a reminder, the third quarter is typically 1 of our seasonally weakest quarters, given that it follows the spring planting season and precedes the fall fertilizer application season. In the Trio segment, sales increased to $19.1 million from $18.1 million in the prior year quarter. Sales volumes were flat, while average net realized selling price increased 1.5%. Most notably, Trio gross margin increased 33% year-over-year, driven by the positive impact of a 13,000 ton increase in production volume, which improved absorption and reduced Trio's cost of goods sold per ton, as well as favorable product mix.

In Potash, segment sales were $31.3 million compared with $32.5 million in the prior year quarter. Sales volumes declined to 59,000 tons from 62,000 tons, while average net realized sales price increased 3.4% to $394 per ton. Production volume declined 17%. As Rick discussed earlier, we made a strategic decision to delay the start-up of our Moab facility following the summer evaporation process to support production levels and efficiency. Potash segment gross margin declined due to higher COGS per ton, reflecting a production mix weighted more heavily toward Intrepid's higher cost sites as compared to last year's third quarter.

Moving to cash flow and liquidity. Year-to-date cash flow from continuing operations was $50.5 million compared with $37.3 million in the prior year, with the increase partly attributable to improved operating performance. Capital spending remained disciplined with $11.3 million invested in the third quarter and $24.9 million year-to-date. We ended the third quarter with $152.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, $9.1 million in short-term investments and no debt. As part of our capital allocation framework, we invested $14.5 million in short and long-term investments during the third quarter to earn additional returns on cash we've set aside to support our long-term balance sheet strength.

Going forward, we'll continue to manage our liquidity carefully, balancing opportunities to earn returns on our cash with seasonal working capital needs investments in our growth projects and ongoing share repurchases. As Kevin mentioned, our balanced approach to capital allocation prioritizes a safe and reliable operations balance sheet flexibility and investments evaluated against the risk-adjusted return potential, execution readiness, and strategic fit.

Within this framework, we will also return capital to shareholders. As I discussed during last quarter's call, balance sheet preservation is the foundation of our capital allocation strategy. We plan to maintain approximately $50 million in liquidity to navigate cyclical downturns plus roughly $35 million for working capital needs and cash flow variability. Beyond these amounts, we will deploy capital through disciplined growth investments, particularly within our existing operating footprint and share repurchases. As Kevin indicated, we have increased our repurchase activity over the past several weeks. Since the Board approved the $50 million authorization in June, we repurchased 88,000 shares for a total of $3 million.

Turning to growth investments. Our planned spending in 2027 will focus on Trio production growth and potash mine development within our existing asset base. These investments are designed to increase production, extend the life of existing operations, and enhance the business' long-term earnings potential. The Trio and Potash investments I'll discuss are separate from the proposed SOP project, Kevin outlined. As we continue evaluating that opportunity ahead of a final investment decision, we remain committed to our broader capital allocation priorities and will assess the project within the same disciplined returns-focused framework.

For Trio, we plan to invest approximately $16 million in 2027 as part of a broader initiative to increase annual production by approximately 30,000 tons above the first half 2026 run rates. We expect this initiative to generate an internal rate of return of approximately 30%. We anticipate realizing some of the production benefits in late 2026 and expect full year 2027 Trio production in the range of 320,000 to 330,000 tons. We believe there is potential to increase annual Trio production by an additional 100,000 tons with modest incremental investment beyond 2027. For Potash, we plan to invest approximately $20 million in mine development in 2027 to sustain annual production at levels approximately 20,000 to 30,000 tons above prior years, with expected rates of return of approximately 30%.

To support these initiatives, we are increasing our full year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to approximately $45 million from approximately $40 million previously. In summary, we executed well during the third quarter, making meaningful progress toward our stated goals. We increased Trio production and significantly improved the segment's margins. Our strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation strategy position us to invest in organic growth while returning capital to shareholders through opportunistic share repurchases. Collectively, we expect these efforts to create long-term value for our shareholders. Operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Lucas Beaumont with UBS.

Question-and-Answer Session

Lucas Beaumont

Just wanted to start on Trio. So I mean, pricing is up 25% or so over the last 2 years, I mean, probably half of that sort of came before the sort of more recent disruptions to the sulfur markets. So I just kind of wanted to get your view on, I guess, how would you sort of frame that in terms of what do you see as sort of temporary pricing uplift there versus what's been more structurally driven by the supply/demand setup. So I guess as we sort of go forward and then see a normalization in those temporary factors, how much of that would you sort of expect to sort of roll off versus sort of being supported on an underlying basis?

Zachry Adams

Lucas, thank you for the question. In regards to Trio pricing and the changes we've seen over the last several years, we would assign that to a structural change. And yes, the global disruptions to sulfur are supporting that now, but on a broader level, there is just a greater awareness and recognition of magnesium and sulfur needs increasing over time in soil nutrient levels. And in combination with that as well is we're seeing a greater appreciation for the low-chloride content of Trio as well in specialty crop. So it's really all 3 components: the low-chloride potassium, the magnesium and the sulfur all having broader awareness and recognition that's helping to structurally change that price dynamic.

Kevin Crutchfield

The other thing I'd add too, Lucas, is given the conflict in the Mid East, I mean that's obviously provided some underfooting for higher sulfur prices. And to the extent that, that gets resolved tomorrow, it's not going to come back quickly. We don't think just based on the level of infrastructure damage that's been done across the system.

So you can refer to it as temporary, if you want, but our view is that it's going to take a long time to get that anywhere back to normal.

Lucas Beaumont

Great. And then I guess just on the potash side, considering the markets that have been fairly balanced through the middle part of the year here, and you're kind of expecting pricing to sort of be flat to kind of slightly lower end of the fourth quarter sequentially. So I guess, how do you sort of see the set up there for market momentum for potash into the fall and then peak spring demand. I mean, you sort of see the market as tight enough that we should see pricing move higher into the spring? Or kind of what's your view currently?

Zachry Adams

Lucas, regarding the potash market, we see that as very constructive. To your point, it has been balanced throughout the year, but as we enter the fourth quarter here, there's several things going on globally. One is the reengagement of the Chinese on their next potash contract, which could drive kind of shipments to continue to be at very ratable heavy clip what we've done year-to-date.

And the other more, I'd say, thing we're watching even closer is the disruption to the ports in the Baltic. Estimates are that could impact up to 1.5 million tons here in fourth quarter of potash from Russia and Belarus that would not be able to be exported. And we kind of pair that with an improving grower sentiment and good demand on potash that we've seen this fall and we expect to continue into the spring season. There certainly is some factors that could lead to a tightening market as we get in the first quarter of next year.

Lucas Beaumont

And then I guess just on your production improvement initiatives there for next year, I mean, that's fairly substantial again as well. You're sort of pointing to another kind of 10% increase. So I was just wondering if you could give us a bit more detail there. I guess, on sort of what you're doing? And then what sort of a cash cost to production benefit should we, I guess, be thinking about with that kind of 10% uplift?

Kevin Crutchfield

Yes, Lucas. Good question. So on Potash and Trio, I mean the investments are different, obviously, I think on Trio, rather than talking about anything specifically we're going to do -- we just want to talk about the Trio product as a system from the mine face continuous miner shuttle cars, belt, plant infrastructure, yields, et cetera. We just -- we think there are opportunities to improve operating run time, maintenance downtime, mill throughput, yields, et cetera. And that monies -- those monies will go into just generally, I would describe as system improvements to generate better volumes over time.

And it's not a sort of a onetime thing. We think that's a sustainable long-term run rate. And we think there's upside potential beyond that which is premature to get into today. So that's kind of how we think about Trio. I'm not going to talk much more about what 1 miner does or whatever. We're just going to talk about it as improvements to the system and continuing to debottleneck the system to generate better production over time. And then on the Potash side, it's an investment that is developmental in nature to replace tons as they fall off over the future, but it will stimulate production 20,000 to 30,000 tons. We'll start to realize that next year.

And look, I'd also point out, too, that some context here is important. When we -- when you look at the numbers we've provided in terms of next year's range of guidance. You're in the mid 600,000 ton range. And it's been, I don't know, a decade or so since the company has achieved anywhere near that. And so I think that's an important part of the story that's not getting captured appropriately. And those gains have largely come over the last 2.5 or 3 years. And I'd like to credit the team that we have in place and the good work that's being done at the site level to generating those positive outcomes. I'll refer to Jason for any sort of remarks around the cost piece.

Jason Tremblay

Yes. So on the cost front. These are -- I would call them marginal tons, right? So I think what you get is much of your fixed cost isn't going to adjust. There's some amount of investment in fixed cost that come. Majority of this is marginal production with marginal costs being added. As a result, you see a pretty -- we're a high fixed cost business and you see that benefit come through. That answer is very specific to Trio and I'll get into the Potash side. But on the Trio side, you should see cost benefits just through absorption.

As we come to the Potash side, I think if you look at it on any individual mine, you're going to see cost benefits of these investments, right? So -- and largely, what this mine development does is provide higher grade to the facilities, which drives kind of more efficient production. Really, your costs aren't changing much. You're handling the same volume of raw materials to produce incremental volume. So you're getting better volume for largely similar cost structure at most of that -- at the sites.

The thing that gets hard is -- and Q3 is a good example of that, is depending which site we're producing tons at and where the relative cost positions are, you can get unusual movement in the consolidated result, right? And that's something we're going to expand on more as we move into the future and just help make sure that we help the investors and understand kind of the relative cost performance of site because I think that's a big driver that moves pieces around. But what we do know is each of our sites should see cost improvement as the mine development takes hold and the production improves.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

Justin Pellegrino

This is Justin Pellegrino on for Vincent. My first question is about Trio production. And if you just annualize 2H '26 Trio production. It implies about 332,000 tons of production at today's rates which -- that's above the 2027 production guidance. So 2 questions there. Does the '27 production guidance includes some conservatism? Or do you guys expect current rates to kind of come down a little bit maybe? And then likewise, does the '27 production guidance include any additional tons from the $16 million that you plan to invest in '27?

Kevin Crutchfield

Yes, there's a lot in that question. So out of the $16 million that we called out, we're going to spend -- start spending a little bit of that this year. That's why we raised our capital guide a little bit. You're right, the run rate of late has been really solid but it's dangerous to annualize a quarter. So what we're trying to do is build sustainable run rates that are reliable, predictable, and dependable just like I've been saying for the last few years.

So a piece of that is, is there upside in that? Absolutely, because the team there is -- they've become very dedicated to thinking about the Trio production system as just that a system and just debottlenecking kind of weak point by weak point by weak point. And every time you do that, you generate better volumes over time. So we still think there's tremendous upside potential left on the Trio side. And we'll continue to update it on a quarterly basis. Anything you'd add?

Jason Tremblay

Yes. The only thing I'd add to that is just to your -- the first part of your answer when you were talking about -- it's dangerous to annualize a quarter. You have to keep in mind, right, there is scheduled downtime required for our assets for major maintenance. We have to take turnaround activities on specific assets and timing of those matter, right? And so in the second half here, we're lighter on the maintenance front and lighter in terms of major asset maintenance, which is why you're seeing a higher run rate, but it's also indicative of the fact that we can run at higher rates but that's why I think you're seeing kind of a change in guide.

Justin Pellegrino

Understood, and that's much appreciated. And then the next -- I know this is kind of trying to isolate 2027 and investments happen at different points throughout the year. But if we simply just add the $16 million of Trio and $20 million that you called out in Potash to the $45 million of guidance, you get to somewhere in the $80 million ballpark of CapEx 2027. So I was just hoping you could maybe help us figure out if that's in the right ballpark. I know you had mentioned previously some maybe larger sustaining CapEx items as well in '27. So just any kind of help us triangulate where 2027 CapEx could land?

Kevin Crutchfield

Yes. I'll take the initial part of that, Jason, will probably have some color to add. But if you imputed that the way you just described, you'd be too high. So yes, we did this year from -- I mean, we started, I think, the year $45 million, we moved it down $40 million. We've moved it back up to $45 million because we wanted to get a head start on some of next year. So $5 million of that $36 million is happening this year. But the addition of those 2 numbers is not going to get you close to what we're talking about for sustaining. Next year, it will be south of that. But we're not prepared to give full year guidance just yet. We'll do that next quarter.

Jason Tremblay

The only thing I'd add, Justin, to that, just context-wise, right, we do mine development activity every year, right? It's just given the magnitude of it that's falling next year, we wanted to provide some context to that and the return profile. And I would say the same thing on the Trio front. There's reliability type investments ongoing year-over-year. But again, we wanted to provide context because it will be a bit higher next year. So we just want to make sure people understand these are being done with a return focus, right? And -- but I agree wholeheartedly with Kevin's comment, which is why you just can't add the 2 numbers together.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Ursaner with Bumbershoot Holdings.

Jason Ursaner

Sorry, I was on mute. Just on the Trio on the additional tons for next year and then kind of this road map for maybe additional 100,000 tons with moderate investment from there. Has that changed at all the marketability between the granular standard and fine langbeinite? Like are you adding any way to get additional tons of one? Or is it just kind of across the board?

Zachry Adams

Jason, thanks for the question. This is Zach. As we think about the additional tons of Trio, we see that growth coming from a variety of areas. First is focus on specialty crops like we talked about earlier and also where we see crops and soil types that have a broader recognition of sulfur and magnesium needs. And then with that growth, we see that as a combination of both market expansion and share gains. And within that, that expansion, that's geographically as well as customer base and also crop based, and we're currently working through and putting together plans for what that will look like into next year and beyond.

Kevin Crutchfield

And to the extent that the SOP project proceeds, that will be a source as well, as opposed to trying to find new markets in the U.S. or trying to grab market share or whatever. So that will be an outlet as well. To the extent the project proceeds.

Jason Ursaner

So for the SOP project, is it -- would you be using some of the standard and fine langbeinite as a raw input and then you don't have to market kind of the less desirable lower margin langbeinite because you could use that to create SOP, you could sell the higher margin granular and then kind of -- you have sort of an exchange reaction instead of a Mannheim process so you could get SOP and then also have mag chloride?

Kevin Crutchfield

Yes. No Mannheim process required here because we already have the sulfur on site. So the answer to your question is generally yes. That's how we're thinking about it, and that's how it work.

Jason Ursaner

Okay. Does it kind of increase your desire or willingness to try to expand the Trio production and have more of the standard and fine product, if you have an outlet for it, I guess, is what I'm eventually trying to get to?

Zachry Adams

Jason yes, absolutely. Absolutely. SOP drives the ability for us to grow our Trio production significantly more than it is today with providing a nice premium outlet for those fines into an upgraded specialty fertilizer product.

Jason Ursaner

Okay. And then, I guess, just a broader question for Kevin. You -- around $400 million market cap, $160 million of cash, you still have the $50 million eventually coming from Exxon. So it's around $190 million, $200 million of enterprise value just based on trailing numbers of EBITDA. I mean you're kind of trading 3.5x EBITDA or so. So the implication at least to me is either EBITDA is unsustainable, you're at some cyclical peak, you're structurally not converting EBITDA cash and none of those sound at all kind of what you're saying, which is pretty upbeat, optimistic and anything. So I guess from your perspective, what are -- I guess, what are people sort of missing here? And what is going to change that in people's mind eventually for this being not only a sustainable business, but kind of an improving 1 pretty significantly is what it sounds like.

Kevin Crutchfield

Yes, that's an excellent question. I mean the way I think about it is start with the core assets. And we've been pounding the table for -- ever since I've been here about laser focus on core assets, getting them running better on an improved basis, more consistent, more reliable. And I think by any metric you look at over the last 2 to 4 years, that's a -- or a green check mark in that box.

And then over time, too, the other thing that's happened is as we've continued to survey the asset base, you've got some new eyes looking at things here and there. We're coming up with a lot of internal organic growth opportunities that we think are very investable that will have very nice returns on them. So I think you're right. I think maybe we're not telling the story, right? But this is a story of a very nice turnaround over a 2-, 3-year period with a lot of upside potential in the future. Now baseline with all that is we have to execute. We have to continue to do that quarter after quarter after quarter to regain sort of that credibility and that track record.

But we think that there's tremendous upside here. And I'm not going to speak to the share buying program exactly, but we upped our purchases when we saw weakness in the stock. And I think you could expect that to continue if you continue to see weakness in the stock because we think there's upside value here and it's a good value. So if a little frustration is coming through in my voice, should be, because I am a little bit but I also take the responsibility that we've got to tell the story better and make the value proposition more clear going forward because there's tremendous upside here.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vitaly Kononov with Freedom Capital Markets.

Vitaly Kononov

So I'd like to maybe dissect on the cost divergence in the 2 segments. So we saw a year-over-year increase in Potash and year-over-year decrease in Trio. So maybe you can distinguish the factors that are driving the increase in Potash and explain some of the efficiency gains that helped to bring the cost of Trio down?

Kevin Crutchfield

Yes. Look, on the Trio side, as I mentioned earlier, that's an underground mine. We have continuous miner sections operating underground. The continuous miner loads coal into a shuttle cars, shuttle cars takes it to the belt. The belt takes it outside. We process it through the plant, and generate a salable product. All of that is a system. And what we've been doing is, as I said earlier, debottlenecking that system. Part of the problem early on was we had some continuous mining units that were older and experiencing low reliability, low availability, et cetera.

So we replaced those, and that enhanced the system. But what it does is it points out, you've got a bottleneck somewhere else. So we're just moving constraint to constraint across the site, and what that's led to is more operating time, higher productivity, more bits on langbeinite time in the face. The mill is operating really well. Our yields are higher, we're staying in the ore zone better. So all that has contributed to better production and better fixed cost absorption over the last couple of years.

And I think the exciting thing about it is this is not the eighth inning of a ninth inning ball game, we're probably in the fourth inning here, on this thing. So I think it's got more runway, and we're excited to pursue it. We're being very thoughtful about it because markets are somewhat fixed in the U.S., and we've got to think about proper outlets, and not destroying economic value as it relates to the value of the product in the marketplace. But we expect us to be very thoughtful around that approach over the next 2, 3 years but we're super excited about what that potential runway looks like.

Jason Tremblay

If I could add, Vitaly, just on your question on the Potash side. So -- the interesting part and the difference is, in Trio, we're ramping up one facility. So the cost performance is really visible based on kind of ramping that production and seeing the unit cost improvements for that facility. In Potash, right, we've got 3 facilities, and the production increases this year, the production improvement this year because we are improving production year-over-year in this year, but the improvements this year have largely been at 2 of our mines, HB and Wendover which are a higher cost facility than Moab, which is the third facility. And so our production growth is happening at the 2 higher cost facilities.

But at the same time, though, the cost per ton at those facilities is improving. And so the whole idea here for us is improved production at all of our facilities and drive better results. It doesn't show up in that consolidated cost per ton or COGS per ton measure because of that product mix. And that's what we've been trying to communicate. We are going to work and focus on better telling that story, moving into the future. But I think what we see is improved cost performance at all the sites as the production ramps up, it's just the mix is making it difficult to see it on a consolidated level.

Vitaly Kononov

On the Wendover Lithium project, do I sense a change of sentiment here that the project could be the time lines of installing could be delayed somewhat, or am I guessing wrong?

Kevin Crutchfield

I mean relative to kind of where we started talking about this maybe a little bit, but they're still looking at definitive feasibility study by first quarter engineering continues, value-add engineering continues, FEL3 process is done, advanced discussions continue with offtake partners. That's actually going exceedingly well. So yes, but relative to maybe where we started a quarter or something, but it's not terrible, not to be unexpected in this space either.

Vitaly Kononov

All right. Got it. And the last question for me on the recent USDA announcements. I'm just curious what conditions are still remaining before the funding becomes binding? And how much customer offtake commitment would you require before approving construction?

Kevin Crutchfield

So we're just in the early stages of finalizing that work with the USDA. I suspect that will take a good bit of time. And as it relates to what we'd want to have presold before we gave the green light. I think that's part and parcel to the final investment decision process, what the markets look like, where we can move the tons, as you know, a lot of this product is an import product, which we think we could displace but that would be part of the final investment decision, along with final CapEx, what's the cost structure look like et cetera, et cetera. So in the next -- over the course of the next 8 to 12 months, we have a lot of work to do, and we'll be able to update you in the coming quarters on how that work is shaping up.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kevin Crutchfield for any closing remarks.

Kevin Crutchfield

Thank you, operator. Once again, thanks to everybody for your interest for tuning in to today's call. If you have any questions in the future, please reach out. If you're shy, you can just hit the investor website at investors@intrepidpotash.com, and we'll certainly follow up with you. Thank you, and talk to you next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.